Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley are poised to join them, leaving the question of which other club will share their fate. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points clear, the battle for survival appears to have narrowed to a two‑team showdown between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The two London clubs are currently occupying the 17th and 18th spots, separated by a mere two points, and with only five matches left in the campaign the pressure is mounting for both sides.
West Ham’s goalless draw against Crystal Palace on Monday could be viewed as a missed chance to pull clear; a win would have pushed Spurs further away from safety. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, echoing the optimism of his Tottenham counterpart Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side can still win their final five games after the recent stalemate with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have made under the Italian coach, noting that De Zerbi’s influence is evident in the improved performances. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the way they play," Carragher said. "They performed very well over the weekend and deserved more than a single point." While Spurs have not won a league match since December – a run of 15 games without a victory that is more than double that of any other club – the draw with Brighton merely extended that drought.
The longest winless streak after Spurs belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a win. Carragher warned that ending the slump will not be easy, even against a Wolves side that has already been relegated.
"They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable," he remarked. "I can’t see them losing the game, but they could also nick a point – the Wolves set‑up makes it difficult for any visitor." In contrast, Nuno has already managed to reverse West Ham’s fortunes.
The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league fixtures, and the turnaround can be traced back to a dramatic win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January, when Callum Wilson struck in the 93rd minute to secure a 2‑1 victory. Since that moment, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the division, earning five wins and three defeats from 12 games and improving their points‑per‑game ratio from 0.7 to 1.6.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, are enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – following a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining opponents are averaged, Tottenham’s final five foes sit at an average league position of 11, slightly easier than West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4.
However, venue advantage tilts the balance: West Ham will play three of their last five matches at home, while Tottenham have only two home games left. The Spurs’ schedule includes intimidating away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea, both of which have historically troubled them. Spurs have not won at Stamford Bridge in their last seven league encounters, have lost five consecutive games to Chelsea, and have dropped points in their last four meetings with Villa.
West Ham’s road fixtures are not without challenge either. They travel to Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also host title‑chasing Arsenal at the London Stadium.
Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visit West Ham on Saturday. Forest’s remaining program is arguably the toughest of the three, featuring away matches at Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday trip to Sunderland.
Yet, according to Opta’s analysis, the safety threshold could be as low as 38 points. Forest, now on 36 points after their crucial win over Burnley, may need just one more victory to reach that mark.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a pundit noted. Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the matchday squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could feature before the season ends. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs.
Cristian Romero is out for the run‑in after the Sunderland defeat, and Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Tottenham’s most vital attacking assets alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this campaign. West Ham, by comparison, enjoy a relatively clean bill of health.
Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader selection of players than De Zerbi, who must contend with a depleted squad. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation, assigning them a 58.3 % chance of dropping down. West Ham’s relegation probability sits at 36.9 %, while Nottingham Forest’s is a modest 4.4 %.
Leeds United, sitting comfortably in 15th place with 39 points, have a negligible 0.4 % risk of going down. The expected‑points model from Opta forecasts Tottenham finishing the season on 37 points, two shy of West Ham’s projected 39. This puts De Zerbi under significant pressure to deliver a different outcome in the final stretch. Both clubs must navigate a congested fixture list, manage injuries, and extract maximum performance from their squads if they hope to survive the drop.
The coming weeks will decide whether the survival fight remains a two‑way contest between the London rivals or whether another club, such as Forest, can climb out of the danger zone. Fans can follow the live Premier League table via the Sky Sports app, and those without a Sky subscription can gain instant access without a contract. The drama of the final games promises to keep supporters on edge until the very last whistle.