Is Chelsea's Performance Deteriorating Under Rosenior's Leadership?

Despite Liam Rosenior's initial enthusiasm in highlighting Chelsea's fourth-place position in the Premier League table prior to their encounter with Manchester City, the team's recent performance has raised concerns. The three-goal defeat at Stamford Bridge led to a five-place drop to ninth, marking their third consecutive Premier League loss without scoring.

This downward trend, combined with their 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, has intensified pressure on the head coach. With only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea faces an uphill battle to secure a top-five finish, prompting questions about the team's trajectory under Rosenior's guidance. Initially, Rosenior's tenure began positively, with four consecutive Premier League wins against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham, and Wolves.

However, they have only managed one win in their last seven games. The team's unbeaten Premier League start was ended by Arsenal on March 1, and they also lost to the Gunners in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi-final.

The significant gap between Chelsea and top-tier teams was further emphasized by their losses to PSG and Manchester City. Sky Sports' Paul Merson noted, 'Rosenior started well but struggled when facing top teams, getting beaten up.' In his defense, Rosenior has secured impressive wins away to Napoli and Aston Villa. Nevertheless, the recent Manchester City loss has led to supporters feeling pessimistic ahead of their meeting with Manchester United. Rosenior was tasked with getting Chelsea back on track after Enzo Maresca's tumultuous departure but has achieved similar results three months in.

Chelsea has averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior, slightly higher than the 1.48 points per game prior to his appointment. However, this average is still the third-lowest for a Chelsea boss since 2004 and falls short of the required points to secure a Champions League spot.

If Chelsea continues at this rate, they would finish with just 57 points, only five points above Liverpool's current total. The worry is that their current form suggests they might not even reach this target unless Rosenior can oversee significantly improved results. Rosenior pointed out that even Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to 'sort things out' at Manchester City and Liverpool.

As he is only 11 Premier League games into his reign, having taken the job mid-season in challenging circumstances, he is not responsible for the recruitment that has left the squad lacking experience and leadership. He is also dealing with the consequences of the team's extensive football schedule, having gone the distance in the Club World Cup last summer. However, fans still expect more from the team.

Chelsea's mental fragility is not new, having lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca in the first half of the season. This issue has become more pronounced under Rosenior, with the team failing to recover from surrendering leads against Leeds and Burnley in consecutive games in February.

The recent loss to Manchester City followed similar collapses against PSG and Everton. Rosenior has struggled to address Chelsea's discipline issues, with red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive games against Burnley and Arsenal proving costly.

Since Rosenior's first Premier League game in charge, Chelsea has received more cards than any other side. The head coach is not accountable for Enzo Fernandez's internal two-game suspension but is another example of a player stepping out of line.

With only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea's outlook for securing a Champions League finish appears bleak. Missing out on this prize could have negative consequences for Rosenior. Based on their second-half collapse against Manchester City, Chelsea might soon need to focus on their position in the Premier League table.

However, there is some encouragement for Rosenior in the underlying numbers. Recent results have been damaging, but overall, Chelsea's Premier League performances under Rosenior have been much better than earlier in the campaign, according to expected goals. In fact, Chelsea's net expected goals in the three months since Rosenior's appointment is the second-highest among Premier League sides, behind only leaders Arsenal.

This expected goal differential is considered a strong indicator of a team's future performance. Chelsea's total shows they have created far better chances than they have conceded, putting them above Manchester City and Liverpool, suggesting their performances since the change of head coach have been better than their results indicate. The graphic highlighting a rolling average of Chelsea's expected goals and expected goals against showcases Rosenior's positive impact in the context of their season.

However, the numbers have trended in the wrong direction since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle. Results matter most, especially with so much at stake at this point in the season. After three straight Premier League losses without scoring, following their Champions League demolition by Paris Saint-Germain, Rosenior has his work cut out to convince Chelsea fans he is the right person to lead the club forward.