Kimi Antonelli's astonishing win at the Italian Grand Prix felt like a pivotal moment in this year’s title fight, delivering a psychological blow to his rivals by climbing from 19th on the grid to first place. After the race Antonelli sits 66 points ahead of George Russell, 76 points clear of Lewis Hamilton and 96 points in front of Lando Norris, with ten rounds still to run.
Undoubtedly, the Italian is the current favourite for the championship and, if he clinches the title, he would become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history. Yet the season is far from settled. The unique demands of Monza – a circuit dominated by long straights that reward raw engine power – highlighted the importance of the power‑unit package.
Mercedes has traditionally set the benchmark in this area, even though the FIA earlier confirmed that Red Bull’s engine is technically the best on the grid. What set Mercedes apart at Monza was not a measured FIA metric but the team’s ability to extract more performance from the electrical side of their hybrid system, giving them a decisive edge on the high‑speed sections.
No other venue on the calendar will push the power unit to the extreme of Monza, although Baku later this month and the new Las Vegas street circuit in November feature lengthy full‑throttle zones. Both of those tracks, however, contain significantly more corners than Monza, meaning overall car balance and aerodynamic efficiency will play a larger role. "I’m quite happy, first of all, that we were able to perform in Monza like we did, because we weren’t sure.
Ferrari brought an engine upgrade and others on the chassis side, and this is a development race," said Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff. He added, "But we have to consider the fact that Monza is an outlier on the track. It’s on one end, and then there is Monaco on the other." The upcoming race in Madrid is a complete unknown – the brand‑new Madring layout is very twisty, favouring cars that excel in the corners.
That should suit McLaren and Ferrari, whose chassis designs currently extract a lot of down‑force in slow‑speed sections. After Madrid the calendar moves to Azerbaijan, a circuit that can produce chaotic results, then to more traditional venues such as Sepang in Malaysia, Austin in the United States and the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico.
Those tracks should see the field tighten up, provided the teams continue to develop their cars throughout the remaining rounds. McLaren demonstrated that it can win when the car is in the right window. Lando Norris drove a masterclass in Hungary and the Netherlands, turning a competitive package into victories. Most teams have already harvested sizable performance gains from recent upgrades, while Mercedes has announced that its next major update will not arrive until the Malaysian Grand Prix at the start of next month.
"We must not get ahead of ourselves now, thinking, ‘well, we can wait for the upgrade until Malaysia’. We know that it’s going to be a big fight in Madrid. Our car hasn’t got the performance levels that it has in Monza for the next race in Madrid," Wolff warned. "We know that our upgrades would help a lot in Madrid but we haven’t got them.
So we just need to do our best and that could mean that some of the race weekends, not winning, but just scoring points." McLaren boss Andrea Stella echoed a realistic approach, stating that the team’s goal is to be consistently in the win‑fight until the season’s end. "I think our tracks will be more the likes of Malaysia, Austin, Brazil. I think where we have some long corners, the car seems to express its potential well," he explained.
"We have some new upgrades that we will take to Baku, but we still think that tracks like Baku and Madrid where you have to be very precise with the trajectory, short corners, maybe they don’t play to the best of our car. Yet we have to say that in Zandvoort and Hungary we were in a position to win races and in Monza while we were not, we know that it’s a special race. "The drag will be less important in Madrid, there’s a much higher density of corners, so we will definitely give it a go, but from a championship point of view I think we have to remain very realistic, don’t get conditioned by looking at the classification, just focus on one race at a time." Antonelli, only 20 years old and in his second full season, has already shown the composure of a seasoned veteran. He has avoided the costly mistakes that often plague drivers at this stage of their careers, and his raw speed has been the decisive factor in his success so far.
Yet the remaining ten races will test his mettle in different ways – whether through tighter competition, variable weather or the inevitable pressure of leading a championship battle. "Definitely it’s been a very strong year so far, but still many races left and so, still anything can happen," Antonelli said. "And we’ve seen how things can swing very quickly.
So, on my side, as I said many times, just take it race by race, focus on things that I can control and just maximise every opportunity I get. "In Monza we were fastest, but we never know.
We might go to another track and all of a sudden, McLaren is the fastest, or Ferrari is up there, or even Red Bull, with Max." If McLaren or Ferrari were to find a performance edge over the next few rounds and Antonelli missed the podium, rivals such as Hamilton or Norris could reap double‑digit points gains in a single event, raising the pressure on the young Italian. Russell, who drives the same machinery as Antonelli, currently lags in pace and faces a steeper challenge to close the gap. While McLaren and Ferrari appear poised to be the strongest contenders for the final ten races, the unpredictable nature of Formula 1 means that any team can seize an advantage with the right upgrade or strategic call.
Wolff summed up the situation succinctly: "It’s motor racing. It’s a technical sport. Things can break, accidents can happen and that’s why we have to do our best job for both drivers. Continue to bring our best game." The championship now moves to Madrid for the inaugural Spanish Grand Prix on the brand‑new Madring circuit, with live coverage starting this Friday on Sky Sports F1.
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