The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the Super League play‑offs for the first time after finishing seventh this season. For almost two years—some fans would argue even longer—analysts, pundits and supporters have been dissecting exactly how a club that seemed unstoppable could tumble into mediocrity. The next twelve months will reveal whether the decision‑makers inside the club’s four walls finally recognise that their trajectory has been sliding downhill.
The classic question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—now feels eerily appropriate for the Saints. In complex systems, tiny perturbations can cascade into massive outcomes. If the Saints’ recent slump is the metaphorical tornado, what was the minute wing‑flap that triggered it?
To answer that, we must rewind to 2019, the year St Helens reclaimed the Super League crown after a five‑year drought. Mid‑season 2017 found the club languishing in mid‑table, prompting the dismissal of head coach Keiron Cunningham and the appointment of Justin Holbrook.
After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017—thanks to a Luke Gale drop‑goal—and a disappointing 2018 campaign despite Ben Barba’s brilliance, 2019 arrived as a turning point. The Saints roared through the season, losing only three games and cruising to the top of the table. Their 23‑6 Grand Final triumph over Salford Red Devils cemented their return to glory. The squad was a blend of home‑grown talent and Australian imports, featuring Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley and Lachlan Coote—all in their mid‑to‑late twenties and playing at the peak of their abilities.
When Holbrook departed, Kristian Woolf stepped in, and his tenure began with an unexpected boon: the COVID‑19 shutdown, which Woolf believes may have saved his job. The season halted after losses to Huddersfield Giants and Castleford Tigers, giving Woolf time to regroup with his players, clarify expectations and forge a collaborative culture. Under Woolf, the Saints continued their dominance.
Jack Welsby produced one of the most memorable Grand Final tries in 2020, and the club added a Challenge Cup and a League Leaders’ Shield to its trophy cabinet. The momentum seemed unstoppable until the 2023 World Club Challenge in Australia, where St Helens shocked the world by defeating the Penrith Panthers.
Paul Wellens, a club legend who transitioned from captain to assistant coach, finally took the top job after a decade on the coaching staff. Lewis Dodd’s golden‑point drop‑goal became an iconic moment, and the Saints once again planted their flag on the summit of the sport. Having achieved essentially everything possible, the club faced a crucial question: what comes next? Should they begin a transition, rely on the same core group, or adopt a hybrid approach?
The answer was option B—retain the star players while rewarding them with upgraded contracts. In a salary‑capped league, this strategy is a double‑edged sword. Players like Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata’utia were now entering their thirties, and their contracts reflected years of success. However, each raise ate into the limited cap space, reducing the ability to sign marquee talent or to offer competitive deals to emerging youngsters.
A £2.1 million cap does not stretch indefinitely. The club faced a stark choice: either demand that veteran players accept reduced wages—an unlikely proposition—or make ruthless, pragmatic cuts.
Over the next three seasons under Wellens, Saints made only eleven signings to replace departing stalwarts such as Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Makinson, Dodd and Mata’utia. Those arrivals—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were a mixed bag, with Wright and Cross becoming available only after Salford’s financial collapse. Critics argue that these replacements have not matched the quality of the players they succeeded.
In 2025, former CEO Mike Rush described the recruitment philosophy as “Moneyball”, borrowing the term from Michael Lewis’s book about the Oakland Athletics. The idea is to identify undervalued players who excel in specific metrics—tackles, metres gained, work rate—allowing a club to remain competitive despite a constrained budget. Rush admitted that the approach involves risk: “We’re always going to get stuff wrong because whether it’s an overseas player or not, you take risks and you gamble.” The gamble, however, did not pay off in terms of like‑for‑like replacements.
Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin blasted the strategy as “shocking” and “terrible”, accusing the Saints of making short‑term, convenient signings that failed to preserve the squad’s durability. Younger players were thrust into the Super League before they were ready, exposing a lack of depth that became evident when injuries struck. Meanwhile, the financial landscape of the Super League shifted. Clubs such as Wigan, Wakefield, York and Leigh increased their spending power, eroding St Helens’ traditional advantage as a cash‑rich giant.
The wage race intensified, and Saints found themselves outbid for quality talent. As senior players aged and injuries piled up, the burden fell on a younger, less experienced core. In 2026, Lomax and Percival combined for just 14 appearances, a stark contrast to their earlier contributions.
Compounding the on‑field issues, key figures departed. Wellens, Roby and Rush—all instrumental to the club’s success since the 1990s—left within a short span.
The loss of captain Matty Lees to a season‑ending injury and enforcer Morgan Knowles to the NRL further weakened the team’s leadership. Under Wellens, the Saints managed third, sixth and fifth‑place finishes, reaching the semi‑finals twice, but fans grew weary of the attritional style that produced only modest results. Seeking a fresh direction, the board appointed Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract, hoping his experience would rejuvenate the club.
Rowley’s tenure lasted less than a season; he was dismissed before the high‑profile clash with Wigan Warriors in Round 20. It remains speculative how far the team could have progressed under his guidance, especially given the injury crisis and the difficulty of imprinting his systems on a club with a deeply ingrained DNA. The Saints concluded the season in seventh place and have now turned to Australian head coach Kevin Walters to reset the ship.
Former Saint James Graham revealed on his podcast that he sent Walters a compilation of the club’s greatest victories to illustrate why the mantra “Never write off the Saints” endures. Walters, known for fostering strong team cultures and advocating for his players, has already hinted at significant signings aimed at restoring the squad’s quality. The prevailing narrative among supporters is that St Helens are once again willing to splash cash to align on‑field performance with lofty expectations. Yet the core question remains: what was the tiny wing‑flap that set off the 2026 tornado?
In hindsight, the answer appears to be a period of four years of inertia—opting for option B, the decision to stand still rather than continuously evolve. In sport, stagnation is often synonymous with decline. The club’s leadership may claim they never foresaw this outcome, but the seeds were sown when they chose not to adjust their recruitment and salary‑cap strategies.
The 2026 season serves as a cautionary tale: even a club with a storied pedigree and a history of dominance can be undone by incremental missteps—overpaying veterans, failing to replace talent adequately, underestimating the financial rise of rivals, and neglecting the need for constant evolution. As the regular Super League season wraps up with Round 27 on Thursday, September 10, broadcast live on Sky Sports, St Helens face a pivotal crossroads. Will they reignite the wing‑flap that once propelled them to the summit, or will they continue to drift in the wake of their own complacency?