Hollie returns to set the scene for Friday’s elite racing at York’s Ebor Festival, which culminates in the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. The forecast calls for a noticeable shift in the going after heavy rain has soaked the Knavesmire, and that change could have a material impact on the performance of the lightning‑quick U.S. challenger Bacio, who is slated to contest the Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35) at York on Friday. Wesley Ward’s three‑year‑old colt Bacio displayed astonishing speed in the high‑profile three‑year‑old handicap at Royal Ascot.
While the five‑furlong sprint at York is theoretically perfect for a horse of his calibre, Bacio has built his reputation on racing on much firmer ground. The softened turf could blunt his acceleration and make it harder for him to unleash the raw speed that has made him a fan favourite.
In stark contrast, the Aga Khan Studs’ filly Rayevka proved her versatility earlier this season. She captured a Group race at Longchamp in Paris on soft ground in May, then stepped up to contest the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she was out‑classed by Mission Central. Rayevka’s ability to handle softer surfaces, combined with her natural speed, suggests she could turn the tables on Aidan O’Brien’s colt, who appeared to struggle with the track conditions in his July Cup outing.
A softer, rain‑softened surface at York may suit the French filly, giving her a genuine chance to upset the odds. Don’t let a string of second‑place finishes deter you from considering Adaay Of Scarlett in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3:00) at York. Hugo Palmer’s colt has repeatedly run into top‑class opposition in Group Two contests this season, including the Coventry Stakes, the July Stakes, and the Richmond Stakes at the Goodwood Festival.
Although he has not yet broken through to win at this level, his performances have been respectable, and the current field appears less formidable than the ones he has previously faced. This could be his opportunity to finally claim a Group victory. The addition of cheekpieces for the first time should provide regular jockey Oisin Murphy with that extra edge of focus. However, Murphy will need to adapt his riding tactics to the softer ground, which is a departure from the firmer surfaces the colt has been accustomed to.
The dam’s pedigree indicates a preference for softer going, which should be a positive factor in the horse’s favour. Aidan O’Brien’s Marco Polo is another intriguing prospect. The son of Night Of Thunder, who once raced in the United Kingdom, has been given a place in this Group Two by the Ballydoyle team, indicating a high level of confidence in his ability.
As a half‑brother to the useful Saber Strike, Marco Polo could present a serious threat to the more experienced runners in the field. Local trainer Kevin Ryan boasts an impressive record in this particular race, having secured four victories over the years. His unbeaten colt Matteo, while perhaps slightly overrated, is aiming for a third consecutive win.
The race will be tougher than the Beverley conditions race that Matteo won so gallantly, but Ryan’s experience and the colt’s proven tenacity suggest he could still deliver a strong performance. Caballo De Mar, a dual winner at the highest level, is set to bounce back from a sub‑par run in the Gold Cup when he lines up in the Group Two Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2:25).
George Scott’s star suffered heat stress at the Royal meeting, prompting a quick stop, but the extended two‑mile distance and rain‑softened ground should suit him well, offering a chance to return to form. Ralph Beckett’s Amiloc remains unproven over the extended distance after a mishap at the Goodwood Cup, where he unseated his rider Hector Crouch at the start.
Nevertheless, the longer trip could bring out his best. Amiloc was a high‑class performer last season, highlighted by a win in the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes, and the softer going may provide the conditions he needs to shine again. I will be backing my boss Archie Watson’s progressive three‑year‑old Exclusive Code in the opening race at York, the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (1:50). The colt has shown the ability to handle a hefty weight increase after a recent victory at the Goodwood Festival, and his form on good to soft ground is encouraging.
Exclusive Code, a son of Blue Point, dominated his race at Goodwood, holding off a strong challenge from Zennor Storm, who finished an eye‑catching second. While I am not entirely convinced the current conditions will suit him as well as the previous day’s firmer ground, I anticipate a solid run from Wathnan Racing’s gelding. Zennor Storm’s trainer William Haggas also entered Eklleem, who broke well at Ripon and displayed a pleasing turn of foot.
Eklleem is a handsome youngster whose performance in North Yorkshire suggests he can be upgraded, though the upcoming race will be more demanding, and an unfavorable draw could hamper his chances. Ralph Beckett’s improving four‑year‑old Master Vintner ticks all the boxes for the mile‑and‑a‑half Assured Data Protection Handicap (4:10). A winner on heavy ground at Goodwood last autumn, this son of Mastercraftsman sharpened his form dramatically when fitted with blinkers for the first time at Thirsk earlier in the month. He now appears fully capable of handling a five‑pound weight increase and could very well defy the odds.
Master Builder also heads to the Knavesmire on the back of a win, having proven his ability over course and distance in May. He may have even more to offer when faced with a higher class field. Meanwhile, Jane Chapple‑Hyam’s chestnut Primo Lara cannot be discounted after a smooth debut at Ascot, suggesting he could be a dark horse in the mix.
Overall, the softened turf at York introduces a variable that could reshuffle the expected order of finish across the day’s fixtures. Horses with proven ability on softer ground, such as Rayevka, Caballo De Mar, and Amiloc, may find themselves in advantageous positions, while those that thrive on firmer surfaces, like Bacio, will need to adapt quickly. The day promises a blend of seasoned campaigners, emerging talent, and strategic entries that could produce several surprise outcomes, making Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes and the surrounding races a compelling watch for punters and racing enthusiasts alike.