Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright blends statistics with insight to illuminate the Premier League’s most compelling narratives. This week’s focus centers on three key storylines: - **Can Arsenal outshoot Manchester City?** - **Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era** - **A player to watch this weekend** Pep Guardiola has been clear that Manchester City’s priority in the title race is securing points rather than chasing goal difference.
“It’s simply about winning games,” he told Sky Sports. Yet, with Arsenal and City currently separated only by the number of goals scored, the margin could become decisive as the season draws to its climax. ### Why the Recent 1‑0 Victory Over Burnley Matters City’s narrow win against Burnley lifted them back to the summit of the table, but it also handed Arsenal a psychological lift. Mikel Arteta’s side know that victories are essential, but a solitary win may not suffice if the gap in goals scored widens.
The Etihad clash could have produced a far more damaging result for the Gunners, making the narrow defeat a reminder of how fine the margins are. ### Goal Difference: More Than Just Attacking Flair Guardiola emphasized that improving goal difference is not solely about piling on goals; it also involves defensive solidity. “You have to score and you have to concede less – it’s a two‑sided effort,” he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can boost their attacking output without compromising their defensive shape.
#### Set‑Piece Strengths Arsenal can legitimately claim a modest advantage in the goal‑difference equation thanks to their prowess from dead‑ball situations. They have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight.
This edge stems largely from the aerial threat posed by their tall centre‑backs and the precise deliveries from midfield. However, recent form shows a dip in this area: only one set‑piece goal in the last four league matches, a stark contrast to the two corners they converted against Chelsea in early March.
#### Open‑Play Creativity The bigger challenge lies in open‑play production. Arsenal’s expected goals (xG) from open play at the Etihad stood at 1.32, outstripping City’s 0.98 despite the Gunners losing 2‑1. This suggests that Arsenal are creating quality chances, even if they are not always finishing them.
Kai Havertz, deployed as the No 9, was pivotal. He won the ball, held up play, linked midfield to attack, and constantly threatened the City box. Although he only scored once, his five shots represented the highest tally by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season. #### The Havertz Effect Havertz’s second Premier League start of the season coincided with the return of another key player from injury.
His presence has added a focal point that was missing for much of the campaign. When paired with Martin Ødegaard, who generated more chances than any other player on the pitch, Arsenal’s technical level rose noticeably. Ødegaard’s vision and passing range, combined with Havertz’s hold‑up play, have given Arteta a more versatile attacking framework. #### The Saka Conundrum Bukayo Saka, another integral figure, is expected to rejoin the lineup after a brief injury lay‑off.
The last time the trio of Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka started together was the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a match that highlighted the potency of their combined creativity. When all three are on the field, Arsenal’s open‑play xG climbs to 1.47 per game, compared with 1.11 when one or more are absent.
This statistical disparity underscores the importance of keeping the trio fit for the final stretch. #### Supporting Cast Contributions Beyond the headline names, Arsenal’s depth remains a concern.
Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke have contributed only three league goals between them this season, while Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 appearances. Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads the club’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which came against lower‑half opposition.
His knack for finding the net against weaker teams could prove valuable in upcoming fixtures against clubs fighting relegation. ### The Mentality of Scoring More Arsenal’s players appear aware of the goal‑difference battle. Martinelli told Sky Sports, “When you’re winning, you still want to push for more goals because we know the title race will be tight.” This mindset reflects a shift from a purely result‑oriented approach to one that embraces the need for a larger goal tally. ### Newcastle’s Parallel Struggles While Arsenal wrestle with their attacking balance, Newcastle United face a different set of problems.
Under Eddie Howe, the Magpies have slipped to their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 season. Their recent third‑straight defeat to Bournemouth left them 14th in the table, and their summer‑spent £124 million on forwards Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa has yet to translate into goals. Howe is now considering giving Denmark U‑21 prospect William Osula a larger role, while veteran Alexander Isak, who previously hit 20‑plus goals in consecutive seasons, has not replicated that form. Their current top scorer, Bruno Guimarães, has only nine league goals.
### Looking Ahead The upcoming Saturday Night Football clash between Arsenal and Newcastle will be a crucial test for both managers. Arteta will aim to field a fit Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka to maximize open‑play creativity, while Howe will look to spark Newcastle’s attack with fresh faces. Meanwhile, Manchester City’s focus on point accumulation continues, but their goal‑difference margin remains vulnerable if Arsenal can sustain their set‑piece efficiency and improve conversion in open play.
In summary, Arsenal possess the tools—set‑piece dominance, a revitalised forward line, and a growing attacking mentality—to potentially outscore Manchester City in the final stages of the title race. Their success will hinge on keeping key players healthy, sharpening finishing under pressure, and maintaining defensive rigidity to protect any advantage they carve out. The race is still open, and the next few weeks promise high‑stakes football that could decide the Premier League crown.