Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to follow, but the real question now is which other club will join them at the bottom. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points clear, the race for survival is increasingly shaping up as a direct showdown between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. At the moment the Hammers sit 17th and the Spurs 18th, separated by a mere two points, and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of slipping into the drop zone is palpable for both sides.
West Ham may look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday and wonder whether they missed a chance to pull clear; a win would have pushed Tottenham further down the table. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, echoing the optimism of his counterpart at Tottenham, Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side can win their remaining five fixtures after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have made under the Italian, noting that De Zerbi’s influence is already evident in the team’s performances. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact in terms of the performances," Carragher said.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have got more than one point out of it." Despite that encouragement, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrisome. After a defeat to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to 15 games – more than double the length of any other club’s run. The only team with a comparable run is Burnley, who sit in 19th place with a seven‑game stretch without a victory. Breaking that barren spell will be a tall order, even when they face a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher.
"They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable," he added. "I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." Spurs are therefore trying to generate momentum from a standing start, whereas Nuno has already managed to reverse West Ham’s fortunes. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league matches, and their resurgence can be traced back to a dramatic January victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson netted a 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 comeback.
Since that turning point, West Ham have recorded five wins and three defeats from 12 games, lifting their points‑per‑game ratio from 0.7 to 1.6. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, enjoy a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham’s opponents average an 11th‑place finish, slightly easier than West Ham’s average opponent rank of 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4. However, venue advantage tilts in West Ham’s favour: three of their final five games are at home, while Spurs have only two home fixtures.
Tottenham’s schedule includes daunting trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea, clubs that have historically troubled them. Spurs have not won any of their last seven league games at Stamford Bridge, and they have lost their last five encounters with Chelsea and their last four against Aston Villa. West Ham’s road fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle, while they must also host title‑challengers Arsenal.
Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest’s itinerary is arguably the toughest of the three, with three away games that feature Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland. Nevertheless, Opta’s data suggests that the safety threshold this season could be around 38 points; Forest, now on 36 after a crucial win over Burnley, may need just one more victory to reach that mark.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a commentator noted, underscoring how narrow the margin has become. Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury.
Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could be called upon before the season ends. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs. Cristian Romero was ruled out for the run‑in after the Sunderland loss, and key attackers such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable.
Kulusevski, arguably one of Spurs’ most important creative outlets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season. By contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries reports that the only sidelined player is third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański, giving Nuno a wealth of options compared with De Zerbi’s limited squad depth. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations and incorporates hundreds of thousands of data points, now places Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation.
The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out of the Premier League, significantly higher than West Ham’s 36.9 % risk. Nottingham Forest’s chance of going down is a modest 4.4 %, while Leeds United, now on 39 points in 15th place, face a mere 0.4 % relegation probability. According to Opta’s expected points projection, Tottenham are forecast to finish the season on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39.
This leaves De Zerbi with a daunting task: to reverse the trend and secure enough points in the final stretch to avoid the drop. In summary, the battle for Premier League survival has narrowed to a two‑way contest between West Ham and Tottenham. Both clubs must navigate a mixture of challenging fixtures, injury concerns, and the pressure of a dwindling points margin.
With only five games remaining, every match could prove decisive, and the final league table will likely be decided by a handful of crucial moments in the weeks ahead.