Liam Rosenior has been quick to remind everyone that Chelsea were sitting in fourth place in the Premier League when he first took charge, a point he raised before their recent clash with Manchester City on Sunday. In hindsight, he might have been wiser not to reference that early‑season standing. After suffering a three‑goal defeat at Stamford Bridge, the Blues slipped five spots down to ninth place, a drop that has occurred over just eleven league matches under Rosenior’s stewardship.
The loss marked their third consecutive Premier League defeat without finding the net, intensifying the pressure as they prepare for Saturday’s encounter with Manchester United. When you add the humiliating 8‑2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint‑Germain in the Champions League round of 16, the picture becomes even bleaker: five defeats in six matches across all competitions.
With a top‑five finish now looking increasingly elusive, the question on many supporters’ minds is whether Chelsea are actually regressing under Rosenior. Rosenior’s spell began on a high note.
He guided Chelsea to victories in his first four league games, beating Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Since that promising start, however, the team has managed only one win in the next seven outings. Their unbeaten run was snapped by Arsenal on March 1, and the Gunners also outplayed them in both legs of the Carabao Cup semi‑final. The gulf between Chelsea and the league’s elite widened further after heavy defeats to PSG and Manchester City.
"Rosenior started well and produced some good results, but when Chelsea face the big clubs they get outclassed," observed Sky Sports analyst Paul Merson. Supporters can point to a few bright spots.
Rosenior’s side secured impressive away victories over Napoli in the Champions League and over Aston Villa in the league, achievements that he can rightly use to defend his tenure. Yet the recent loss to Manchester City has left many fans feeling pessimistic ahead of the upcoming visit from Michael Carrick’s Manchester United. Rosenior was appointed to steady the ship after a turbulent conclusion to Enzo Maresca’s spell, a period that ended with a string of poor results. Ironically, three months into his own tenure, Rosenior’s record mirrors that of his predecessor: Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per league game under his guidance, a modest rise from the 1.48 points per game they earned earlier in the season.
While this represents a slight improvement, it still ranks as the third‑lowest points‑per‑game average for a Chelsea manager since 2004 and falls short of the benchmark needed for Champions League qualification. If the Blues continue at this rate for the remainder of the campaign, they would finish with roughly 57 points – only five points above Liverpool’s current total in fifth place. The trajectory of their form suggests that even this modest target may be out of reach unless Rosenior can engineer a dramatic turnaround in the weeks ahead.
In a post‑match press conference, Rosenior reminded critics that even the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp required a full season to "sort things out" at Manchester City and Liverpool respectively. The 41‑year‑old manager is only eleven Premier League games into his role, having taken over mid‑season under challenging circumstances. It is worth noting that Rosenior is not responsible for the summer recruitment that left the squad thin on experience and leadership.
He also inherits the physical toll of a congested schedule, including a deep run to the Club World Cup final last summer. Nonetheless, supporters are justified in expecting more from a club of Chelsea’s stature.
Mental fragility has been a recurring theme for the Blues. Under Maresca, they surrendered 15 points from winning positions in the first half of the season; under Rosenior, the problem has become even more pronounced.
The team has struggled to protect leads, conceding two‑goal advantages against Leeds and Burnley in February and then allowing Manchester City to overturn a lead at Stamford Bridge. Similar collapses were witnessed against PSG and Everton earlier in the campaign. Discipline on the pitch has also been an issue.
Red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in successive games against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly, and since Rosenior’s debut in January, Chelsea have accumulated more bookings than any other Premier League side. While the coach cannot control every player’s off‑field comments – such as those that led to Enzo Fernandez’s two‑game internal suspension – these incidents underscore a broader problem with squad conduct.
With only six league fixtures remaining and sitting four points behind Liverpool, Chelsea’s chances of securing a coveted Champions League spot appear dim. Missing out would be a major setback for Rosenior’s reputation.
Despite the recent second‑half collapse against Manchester City, there are encouraging signs hidden in the underlying statistics. Expected goals (xG) data suggests that Chelsea’s performances under Rosenior have actually improved compared with the earlier part of the season. In the three months since his appointment, the club’s net expected goals rank second in the league, trailing only Arsenal. This metric, which gauges the quality of chances created versus those conceded, is often viewed as a reliable predictor of future results.
Indeed, Chelsea’s rolling average of xG and expected goals against (xGA) shows they are generating superior opportunities while limiting opponent chances, even outperforming Manchester City and Liverpool on this front. However, the trend has slipped since the 1‑0 defeat to Newcastle, reminding us that numbers alone cannot compensate for poor outcomes on the field. Ultimately, results are what matter most, especially with so much at stake in the final stretch of the season.
After three straight league defeats without scoring and a crushing Champions League exit at the hands of PSG, Rosenior faces a formidable challenge to convince the Chelsea faithful that he is the right man to lead the club forward. The coming weeks will be decisive.
If Rosenior can harness the underlying quality his side has shown in the data and translate it into tangible victories, Chelsea might still salvage a top‑five finish. If not, the narrative of a club moving backward under his stewardship could become the prevailing story.