Our senior form analyst turns his attention to Europe’s most prestigious flat contest – the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe – which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Racing this Sunday. In this feature he shares his top picks, explains why the race is a true clash of nations and generations, and highlights the extra motivation that a returning champion brings to the field. The Arc has always been more than a single race; it is a global showdown that decides which horse truly belongs at the summit of the sport. This year’s edition promises the same drama, with a blend of seasoned veterans and rising stars all aiming to etch their names into history.
As Jamie Lynch points out, "If you want to be a star, you must look the part," and this sentiment has been embodied all season by Daryz, who has carried the mantle of Arc winner with aplomb – aside from a brief hiccup after Royal Ascot when a questionable blood test result caused a stir. That incident turned out to be a mere footnote before the horse’s performance in the Prix Foy, a race that often serves as a final rehearsal for the Arc.
Historically, only eight horses have attempted a second Arc victory, and only one – the legendary mare Allez France, praised by Yves Saint‑Martin as the best he ever rode – managed to add the nine‑furlong Prix d'Ispahan to the campaign. Daryz, however, seemed to surpass even that benchmark, clocking an astonishing 42 mph on the straight and completing a furlong in just 10.68 seconds. Such speed from a proven stayer underscores the sophisticated engine that powers him and highlights the formidable challenge he poses to his rivals. Roger Varian’s entry, Defoe, marks the trainer’s fourth attempt at the Arc after Kingston Hill’s fourth‑place finish in 2014 and Postponed’s favorite‑status fifth place in 2016.
While Defoe lacks the accolades of Varian’s previous contenders, he has shown a knack for incremental improvement, climbing from a London Gold Cup victory to a German Group One win at the Grosser Preis von Baden – a race that has previously prepared champions like Marienbard, Danedream and Torquator Tasso. Though this will be Defoe’s first attempt over the Arc distance, his rapid pace in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and the Coral‑Eclipse suggests he could be a dangerous long‑shot.
Among the French‑trained hopefuls, the 2025 Polish Derby winner has continued to progress in France, taking on older rivals such as Al Aasy and Arrow Eagle in the Group Two Grand Prix de Deauville. Yet the step up to the Arc remains a daunting leap.
Another French contender earned a respectable placing ahead of Calandagan and Masquerade Ball in the Japan Cup, but a stumble at the start left him riderless and his 45‑1 odds reflect his limited experience at the highest level. The Japanese contingent, while quiet this year, still supplies a credible entry in Meisho Tabaru. The horse boasts back‑to‑back victories in the Takarazuka Kinen, including a recent win over Croix Du Nord – a 14‑1 outsider who narrowly missed out on the previous year’s Arc after a strong trial in the Prix Foy.
Meisho Tabaru’s front‑running style was on display during his sole overseas outing, a fifth‑place finish behind compatriot Soul Rush in the 2025 Dubai Turf. Historically, the last 38 Japanese runners have failed to win the Arc, but the experience gained could prove valuable. Jean‑Claude Rouget’s final runner, Arrow Eagle, carries the weight of two previous Arc outings and fourteen French classic victories on his résumé.
While the horse thrives on firm ground, he has shown a particular affinity for heavy going – a condition unlikely to be replicated at Longchamp this year, given the drier surface that favored Daryz in the Prix Foy. Arrow Eagle’s class, however, remains conditional; he was merely a plaything for Daryz in that trial. Minnie Hauk, who recorded the widest winning margin in Arc history at six lengths, has seen her form dip this season. Once a dominant force, she now appears to be a mare that can set the tempo but struggles to sustain it.
Past winners such as Treve and Found have demonstrated that a mare can rebound for a second Arc attempt, but backing Minnie Hauk remains a risky proposition. Kalpana, the five‑year‑old mare who turned a disappointing draw in last year’s Arc into a triumphant King George win, has continued to evolve.
With a current rating of 125 – higher than that of recent winners Found, Alpinista and Bluestocking – she stands out as a leading contender. Her campaign includes a flawless victory in the Prix Vermeille, where she posted the fastest time of the day, and a strong showing in the Pretty Polly Stakes as a three‑year‑old. This will be her first test against the Arc’s elite, and her blend of stamina and turn of foot makes her a serious threat.
Maltese Cross, the three‑year‑old colt who has been refined over 393 days and seven preparatory races, represents the modern archetype of an Arc hopeful. His performances in the Prix d'Ispahan and the Grand Prix de Paris demonstrated a top‑end speed of 43.1 mph, surpassing Daryz’s best at Longchamp. With a rating that now exceeds both Daryz and Ace Impact, Maltese Cross embodies the perfect balance of stamina and acceleration that often decides the Arc. Thundering On, a filly rated 117 – just a pound shy of Minnie Hauk’s rating at the same stage – impressed in the Irish Oaks and delivered a blistering closing two‑furlong effort in the Blandford Stakes, faster than any recent Group One sprinter on that day.
Her form lines and data points suggest she could thrive in the Arc’s demanding mile‑and‑half, especially given the proven ability of three‑year‑old fillies such as Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Enable to punch above their weight. Diamond Necklace, unbeaten in two Classics and a recent victor in the Nassau, would likely be the second‑favorite if not for a defeat to Aventure in the Prix Jean‑Romanet.
Despite that setback, she remains a high‑quality filly with a pedigree that suggests she could improve over the longer distance, much as Daryz did when stepping up to a mile‑and‑half last season. In summary, the field presents a fascinating mix of proven champions, emerging talent and international intrigue. Daryz still carries the aura of a future Arc legend, though his flat performance at Royal Ascot reminds us that form can be fickle. Meanwhile, Maltese Cross is emerging as the most promising three‑year‑old colt in Europe, offering a compelling blend of raw speed and staying power.
The race promises to be a true test of class, stamina and tactical acumen, and viewers can catch every moment live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 512) on Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th October.