Our senior form analyst turns his attention to Europe’s premier flat race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Racing this Sunday. He breaks down the field, highlights the storylines that make the Arc a clash of nations and generations, and reveals the horses he believes have the best chance of winning.
The Arc is more than just a championship race; it is a decisive test that crowns the best middle‑distance horse in the world. A returning champion always adds an extra layer of intrigue, and this year’s edition promises a rich tapestry of narratives, from seasoned veterans to rising three‑year‑olds. **Daryz – the star‑studied contender** "If you want to be a star, you have to look the part," says one pundit, and Daryz has certainly embraced the mantle of Arc winner this season. After a controversial blood test at Royal Ascot, the horse rebounded spectacularly in the Prix Foy, posting a blistering 10.68‑second furlong (roughly 42 mph).
That speed over nine furlongs mirrors the rare feat achieved by the legendary mare Allez France, who combined stamina and turn of foot in the same way. Daryz’s ability to sustain such velocity over the Arc distance makes him a formidable opponent on his home turf.
**Roger Varian’s hopefuls** Varian’s stable has a history of producing Arc performers, with Kingston Hill finishing fourth in 2014 and Postponed taking fifth as the favourite in 2016. This year his entry, Saddadd, may not yet carry the same résumé, but the horse has been climbing steadily, moving from a London Gold Cup win to a German Group One triumph in the Grosser Preis von Baden – a race that has previously prepared winners such as Marienbard, Danedream and Torquator Tasso.
Saddadd showed speed in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and the Coral‑Eclipse, suggesting he could be a long‑shot worth watching. **French talent on the rise** A four‑year‑old French colt, who captured the 2025 Polish Derby and later proved his class in the Group Two Grand Prix de Deauville, has also impressed in France.
He has already beaten Al Aasy and Arrow Eagle, but the Arc will be a step up in distance and competition. **Japanese challenge** Japan’s representative, Meisho Tabaru, is a genuine Group One horse with back‑to‑back victories in the Takarazuka Kinen, where he defeated Croix Du Nord – a 14‑1 outsider in last year’s Arc who edged Daryz in a trial.
Tabaru’s front‑running style served him well abroad, earning a fifth‑place finish behind fellow Japanese runner Soul Rush in the 2025 Dubai Turf. Historically, Japanese horses have struggled in the Arc, with 38 attempts over six decades yielding no winner, but Tabaru’s proven class keeps hopes alive. **Veteran French campaigner** Jean‑Claude Rouget’s Arrow Eagle will make his final start for the trainer. The horse placed sixth at 150‑1 odds in 2025, a respectable effort against Daryz.
Arrow Eagle excels on good ground but has shown a preference for softer, muddier surfaces – conditions unlikely to prevail at Longchamp, where the ground is expected to be firm. **Minnie Hauk – a seasoned mare** Minnie Hauk, who was five and a half lengths clear of the field when she faced Daryz last year, has faded somewhat this season. Yet the Arc has seen several mares rebound to win after a dip in form – Treve and Found are prime examples. If she can rediscover her best, she could still be a factor.
**Kalpana’s evolution** Kalpana, who was unlucky in the previous year’s draw, has transformed into a more powerful five‑year‑old. With a current rating of 125, she now outranks recent Arc winners Found, Alpinista and Bluestocking. Her recent triumph in the Prix Vermeille, the fastest of the three trial races that day, demonstrates her ability to sustain a high cruising speed over the Arc distance.
**Maltese Cross – the dark horse** Perhaps the most intriguing storyline is the rise of Maltese Cross, a three‑year‑old who has been refined over 393 days and seven preparatory races. He posted a remarkable 43.1 mph in the Grand Prix de Paris, outpacing Daryz’s best speed at Longchamp. His rating now exceeds that of Daryz and other leading three‑year‑old colts, suggesting he could be the hidden gem of the day.
His blend of stamina – proven by a strong showing in the Voltigeur – and raw speed makes him a genuine contender, especially if the race unfolds at a brisk tempo. **Thundering On and Diamond Necklace** Two fillies also merit attention.
Thundering On, rated 117, impressed in the Oaks and the Blandford Stakes, where her final two furlongs were faster than any recent Group One sprinter. Diamond Necklace, unbeaten in dual Classic victories, suffered a setback in the Prix Jean‑Romanet but remains highly rated, especially after a dominant performance against the Prix Vermeille winner.
**The final verdict** While Daryz retains the aura of a future Arc legend, the market may be undervaluing Maltese Cross, whose combination of hidden speed and proven stamina could tip the scales. The field is deep, with seasoned veterans, emerging French talent, a solid Japanese challenger, and several high‑rated fillies. As the race approaches, the key questions will be: will the pace suit the speed‑focused runners, or will the stamina‑laden outsiders dictate the tempo? Whatever the outcome, the 2026 Arc promises drama, international intrigue, and the chance for a new champion to etch his name into racing history.
Catch every moment of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe weekend live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 512) on Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th October.