Our leading tipster Lewis Jones, known in the betting world as Jones Knows, breaks down the upcoming Premier League fixtures and offers his betting perspective for the weekend. He begins by highlighting a strong trend toward low‑scoring affairs in the matches he has examined.
Tottenham’s striking woes are well documented. The Spurs have failed to find the net in four consecutive league games and average just 0.95 expected goals per match.
By contrast, Roberto De Zerbi’s sides at Brighton and Marseille produced an average of 1.92 goals per game. Since taking charge at Tottenham, Jones notes a drop to only 0.73 expected goals per game, suggesting a psychological barrier that is hampering the club’s attacking output. Aston Villa face a different but equally troubling problem. They have managed only a single goal in the Premier League so far this season.
While Tottenham dominate possession and territory, they lack the penetration needed to create clear‑cut chances. Villa, on the other hand, struggle to generate a respectable volume of shots at all. Both clubs suffer from flawed attacking processes, albeit for opposite reasons. Given these dynamics, Jones recommends a bet on under 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet, describing the odds as too attractive to ignore.
Turning to Brighton, Jones points out that manager Fabian Hurzeler has yet to beat Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal in five meetings, yet his Brighton side has certainly given the champions a hard time. In the recent clashes, Brighton have won four of the five expected‑goals battles, indicating that the visitors could face a stern test despite their flawless start to the campaign.
He advises caution on the 7/10 price for an away win, preferring the double‑chance option for Brighton at 11/10 as a more appealing proposition. In the defensive department, Olivier Boscagli is expected to mark Arsenal’s dynamic winger Bukayo Saka, who has reverted to his most dangerous form with the ball. Saka has drawn 13 fouls in just three league games, three of which have resulted in opponent bookings. Sky Bet offers Boscagli at 5/4 to commit two or more fouls and at 4/1 to receive a card – a price that gains extra value from his two previous cards in two matches against Arsenal.
Jones then shifts his focus to a recent disappointment: Leif Davis. After being left out of a bet for the Crystal Palace game, Davis went on to score and assist, underscoring the unpredictable nature of football betting and the need for resilience.
He now feels comfortable backing Davis again. The left‑back has evolved into a highly attacking role at Ipswich, regularly venturing into the final third. His early season record—two goals and an assist in the first four league fixtures—demonstrates his influence. Including pre‑season, Davis has netted four times in his last seven outings, an impressive return for a player traditionally positioned at left‑back.
The shot‑on‑target market at 100/30 with Sky Bet looks generous given his frequent presence in attacking zones. Jones also examines the psychological aftermath of heavy defeats. He cites Newcastle’s 4‑1 loss at Leeds, where manager Matthias Jaissle admitted the result was “difficult to digest.” An analysis of teams that have conceded four or more goals (excluding matches against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool) reveals a grim pattern: only one win in the subsequent 15 games, accompanied by five draws and nine defeats. This trend makes a Hull win or a draw at 11/8 with Sky Bet an intriguing option.
Midfielder James McAtee is highlighted as a prime candidate for a booking. Playing in the Premier League’s most physical midfield, McAtee has committed seven fouls across his last two games and received a yellow in each.
Yet the market lists him at 13/2 to be booked again, a price that seems generous given his recent disciplinary record. His role as a replacement for Elliott Anderson in the Forest midfield adds further value to the bet.
Narrative also plays a key role in Jones’s approach. He notes the emotional boost that can accompany a manager’s return to a former club. Andoni Iraola, who spent three seasons at Bournemouth and led them to their highest Premier League finish, returns to the Vitality Stadium after a spell at Liverpool.
Historical parallels show mixed results for such returns—David Moyes lost with Manchester United at Everton, Graham Potter lost with Chelsea at Brighton, Thomas Frank drew with Tottenham at Brentford, Brendan Rodgers drew with Liverpool at Swansea, and Mauricio Pochettino drew with Tottenham at Southampton. These examples illustrate the unique dynamics when a manager faces his former side: the crowd, the players, and the added emotional stakes. Jones rates Bournemouth at 19/10 with Sky Bet to win. When the odds are favorable, Jones advises backing Leeds United.
Their recent form is exemplary: in their last 13 Premier League matches since March, they have suffered only one defeat, winning six and drawing six—the fewest losses of any side over that period. Their recent 4‑1 demolition of Newcastle at Elland Road reinforces their potency. Moreover, Leeds have kept 17 clean sheets in the first half of their last 19 games, conceding just two goals before halftime.
This defensive discipline makes the Leeds half‑time/full‑time market at 7/4 with Sky Bet attractive, especially against Crystal Palace, who have already allowed 11 goals in their first four league games. Turning to the Premier League’s most lethal scorer, Erling Haaland, Jones notes that only Sunderland has escaped his scoring record—he has found the net against 24 of the 25 teams he has faced.
With Haaland in red‑hot form—nine goals in his last nine league matches, including a winner against Manchester United—Jones suggests a layered bet: Haaland to score in a Manchester City win while the total goals remain under 3.5, priced at 11/8 with Sky Bet. Sunderland’s defensive frailties combined with City’s tendency to win without excessive goal‑fests make this a compelling proposition. Finally, Jones looks at Manchester United’s struggles.
After a dismal start—just one win in four league games—and a squandered 2‑0 lead against Brighton, United face a potential setback before the international break. The draw market for an away win looks tempting, especially as Fulham’s openness could benefit United’s attackers.
However, Jones prefers a goals‑based angle: both United and Fulham rank joint‑first for touches in the opposition box this season (139 each). Josh King stands out, having made 30 touches in the opponent’s area, scoring twice from 11 shots, five of which were on target.
The combined market for both teams to score and King to register at least one shot on target is priced at 11/8 with Sky Bet, offering good value. In summary, Jones’s analysis blends statistical trends, psychological factors, and narrative elements to identify value across a range of markets—from low‑score bets and double‑chance options to individual player props and nuanced multi‑condition wagers. His recommendations aim to exploit inefficiencies in the market while accounting for the ever‑changing dynamics of Premier League football.