Kimi Antonelli's remarkable win at the Italian Grand Prix felt like a pivotal moment in this year’s title fight, delivering a psychological punch to his rivals by climbing from 19th on the grid to the top step of the podium. After that performance, Antonelli now enjoys a 66‑point cushion over George Russell, a 76‑point lead on Lewis Hamilton and a 96‑point advantage over Lando Norris, with ten races still on the calendar. Undoubtedly, the Italian driver is the current favourite to clinch the championship and, if he succeeds, he will become the youngest world champion in the sport’s history.
Yet the season is far from decided. The high‑speed straights at Monza place a premium on raw engine power, and while the FIA has confirmed that Red Bull’s power unit is technically the best, Mercedes has demonstrated an ability to extract more performance from the electrical side of its hybrid system – a factor not measured by the governing body. This edge helped the team dominate the long‑run sections of the circuit. No other venue on the 2024 calendar demands such extreme power‑unit output as Monza does, although the upcoming Baku street race and the Las Vegas Grand Prix later in the year will also feature lengthy full‑throttle sections.
Both of those tracks, however, contain significantly more corners than the Italian circuit, meaning that outright engine strength will be less decisive. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff reflected on the Monza result, saying, “I’m pleased we could deliver the performance we did, especially after Ferrari introduced an engine upgrade and made chassis improvements. This is a development race.” He added, “Monza is an outlier – it sits at one extreme of the calendar, with Monaco representing the opposite end.” The next event, a brand‑new race in Madrid, remains a mystery.
Its layout appears highly twisty, favouring cars that excel in cornering – a potential advantage for McLaren and Ferrari. After Madrid, the calendar heads to Azerbaijan, a race that often turns chaotic, before moving on to the more conventional circuits of Sepang in Malaysia, Austin in the United States, and the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico.
Those venues should bring the field closer together, assuming teams continue to introduce upgrades. McLaren entered the season with a car capable of winning, as demonstrated by Lando Norris’s victories in Hungary and the Netherlands. Many teams have already reaped significant performance gains from newly introduced parts, yet Mercedes has announced that its next major upgrade will not arrive until the Malaysian round at the start of next month. Wolff cautioned against complacency: “We must not assume we can wait for the Malaysia upgrade.
We know the fight in Madrid will be intense. Our car doesn’t have the Monza‑level performance for the next race, so we have to make the most of what we have, even if that means focusing on points rather than wins on certain weekends.” McLaren boss Andrea Stella outlined his team’s realistic aim: to be consistently in the win‑contending mix for the remainder of the season.
“Tracks like Malaysia, Austin and Brazil play to our strengths, especially where we have long, flowing corners that let the car show its potential,” Stella said. He noted that while the team will bring new upgrades to Baku, circuits such as Baku and Madrid demand precise trajectory through short corners, which may not suit the current McLaren package. Nonetheless, the team felt competitive in Zandvoort and Hungary and recognised Monza’s unique character.
Stella added, “Drag is less critical in Madrid because the circuit is dense with corners. We’ll give it everything we have, but from a championship perspective we must stay realistic, ignore the standings for a moment, and focus on each race individually.” Antonelli, only 20 years old and in his second full season, has already shown the poise of a generational talent. He has avoided the costly mistakes that often plague young drivers, yet the remaining races will inevitably test him – whether through tighter competition, variable weather, or the occasional mistake that can send a driver into the barriers.
Reflecting on his season, Antonelli said, “It’s been a very strong year so far, but there are still many races left, so anything can happen. Things can swing quickly, so I just take it race by race, focus on what I can control and maximise every opportunity.” He acknowledged that while McLaren was fastest in Monza, the balance could shift at the next venue, with Ferrari, Red Bull or even Mercedes potentially taking the lead. If McLaren or Ferrari were to dominate the next ten rounds and Antonelli failed to reach the podium, rivals such as Hamilton or Norris could reap double‑digit point hauls, increasing the pressure on the young Italian.
The situation looks even more challenging for Russell, who shares the same machinery as Antonelli but lacks the same raw pace, making it difficult to foresee a turnaround. Wolff summed up the state of the championship succinctly: “It’s motor racing.
It’s a technical sport. Things can break, accidents can happen, and that’s why we have to do our best for both drivers and keep bringing our best game.” Formula 1 will head to Madrid for the Spanish Grand Prix at the new Madring circuit, with every session broadcast live from Friday on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime.