The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the play‑offs for the first time after finishing seventh in the Super League. For almost two years—some fans would argue even longer—analysts, supporters and pundits have been dissecting the reasons behind this decline. The next twelve months will reveal whether the club’s decision‑makers finally recognise that their trajectory has been sliding downwards. The classic question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—offers a useful metaphor for sport.
In complex systems, tiny adjustments can trigger massive outcomes. If the Saints’ recent slump is the tornado, what was the tiny wing‑flap that started the chain reaction? To answer that, we must rewind to 2019, the year St Helens captured their first Super League title in five years.
Mid‑season 2017 found the club languishing around mid‑table, prompting the dismissal of head coach Keiron Cunningham and the appointment of Justin Holbrook. After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017 and a disappointing 2018 campaign—despite Ben Barba’s brilliance—the 2019 season saw the Saints dominate, losing only three games and cruising to the top of the ladder. Their 23‑6 Grand Final victory over Salford Red Devils cemented their return to glory.
That squad was a blend of home‑grown talent and Australian imports in their prime: Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley, Lachlan Coote and others, all in their mid‑to‑late twenties. When Holbrook departed, Kristian Woolf stepped in, and his tenure began under unusual circumstances. Woolf has openly admitted that the COVID‑induced pause in 2020 may have saved his job. The season was halted after defeats to Huddersfield and Castleford; when play resumed, Woolf consulted his players about expectations and style, forging a partnership between a demanding coach and a hungry group.
The result was immediate. Jack Welsby scored one of the most memorable Grand Final tries in 2020, and the Saints added a Challenge Cup, a League Leaders’ Shield and another Super League crown to their trophy cabinet.
The momentum continued into 2023 when the team travelled to Australia for the World Club Challenge. Few believed they could overcome the Penrith Panthers, yet a golden‑point drop‑goal from Lewis Dodd became an iconic moment, and St Helens planted their flag on foreign soil.
Having achieved everything possible, the club faced a crucial question: what comes next? Should they begin a transition, rely on the same core, or adopt a hybrid approach?
The answer was “Option B”. Option B meant rewarding the senior stars with upgraded contracts—an inevitable step for a salary‑capped competition. Players like Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata’utia were now entering their thirties, and with age came higher wages.
The club’s cap space, roughly £2.1 million, began to shrink. Either the Saints would need to be ruthlessly pragmatic—letting veterans take pay cuts—or they would have to accept a reduced ability to recruit marquee names and nurture younger talent. Over the next three seasons under Paul Wellens, the club made only eleven signings to replace departing stalwarts such as Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Makinson, Dodd and Mata’utia.
Those arrivals—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were largely opportunistic, with Wright and Cross becoming available after Salford’s financial collapse. Critics argue that many of those spots remain under‑filled or that the replacements have not matched the quality of their predecessors. Former CEO Mike Rush described the recruitment model as a form of "Moneyball"—a data‑driven approach popularised by Michael Lewis’s book on the Oakland Athletics. In theory, the Saints sought undervalued players who could fulfil specific roles—high tackle counts, metres gained—while staying within cap constraints.
Rush admitted that the process involved risk: "We’re always going to get stuff wrong because you take gambles on overseas players or others. It’s a salary‑cap sport; you assign a value to a player and hope it translates on the field." In practice, the gamble has not always paid off. Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin slammed the recruitment as "shocking" and "short‑term", noting that the club failed to replace like‑for‑like and left many young prospects thrust into the Super League before they were ready. Meanwhile, other clubs—Wigan, Wakefield, York, Leigh—have increased their wage offers, eroding St Helens’ traditional financial advantage.
The consequences are evident. Veteran forwards Jonny Lomax and Mark Percival combined for just 14 appearances in 2026, a far cry from their former durability. Key figures such as Paul Wellens, James Roby and Mike Rush departed within a short window, stripping the club of institutional memory dating back to the 1990s. Injuries to captain Matty Lees and enforcer Morgan Knowles further weakened the squad’s spine.
Under Wellens, the Saints finished third, sixth and fifth in successive seasons, scraping semi‑final play‑off spots but never recapturing the dominance of earlier years. The board deemed those results insufficient and appointed Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract to reverse the slide.
Rowley’s tenure lasted less than a season; he was dismissed ahead of the Round 20 clash with rivals Wigan Warriors. Whether the season would have turned around under his guidance is impossible to know, given the injury list and the apparent mismatch between his systems and the club’s ingrained DNA.
The Saints now look to Australian head coach Kevin Walters for a fresh start. Former player James Graham revealed on his "The Bye Round" podcast that he sent Walters a compilation of the club’s greatest victories, hoping to inspire the new regime. Walters, known for fostering strong cultures and advocating for his players, has already hinted at significant signings and a renewed willingness to spend. So, what was the original "flap of a wing" that set off this tornado?
In hindsight, it appears the Saints spent four years essentially standing still—opting for stability over evolution. In sport, stagnation is often synonymous with decline.
The decision to pursue Option B—maintaining the status quo rather than actively reshaping the roster—proved to be the tiny disturbance that eventually snowballed into a full‑blown crisis. The 2026 season ended with a seventh‑place finish, and the club now faces a pivotal crossroads. Will they revert to heavy spending to match expectations, or will they find a sustainable model that balances cap constraints with competitive ambition? The answer will shape not only the next season but the long‑term identity of St Helens.
The regular Super League season will close with Round 27 on Thursday, 10 September, live on Sky Sports, offering the first glimpse of whether the new wing‑flap can steer the Saints away from the storm they have weathered.