Key US Open Queries: Alcaraz's Health and Sabalenka's Historic Bid

The US Open stands out among the four Grand Slam tournaments as the most difficult to forecast, largely because it takes place toward the end of a grueling season. By the time the New York courts are ready, players have been on the road for eight months, often nursing lingering aches and injuries accumulated from the relentless tour schedule. This fatigue factor makes the outcomes especially uncertain. Another reason the tournament is so open is its surface.

While many competitors have love‑hate relationships with clay or grass, the hard courts at Flushing Meadows are considered the most neutral ground, allowing a broader pool of players to feel they have a realistic shot at success. The US Open has expanded into a three‑week spectacle.

Week one is essentially a fan festival, and this year it featured a memorable exhibition by five‑time champion Roger Federer, the mixed‑doubles triumph of Karolina Muchova and Jakub Mensik—both earning their first Grand Slam titles—and a nostalgic return of six‑time champion Serena Williams to the venue. The qualifying rounds also attracted attention, opening with fifteen British hopefuls in the draw. The main draw kicks off on Sunday and includes nine British players, a record five of whom earned their spots through qualifying.

On the men’s side the top seed is Sascha Zverev, who steps into the role vacated by an injured Jannik Sinner. The women’s draw is led by world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who arrives with the dual goal of defending her title and protecting her ranking. If we dissect the men’s bracket, the upper half is anchored by Zverev, making his debut as a Grand Slam top seed after capturing the French Open earlier this year.

The German has enjoyed an impressive 18‑2 record at majors this season, and the draw has been kind to him so far. The lingering question is whether he can handle the pressure that comes with being the highest‑seeded player, especially after early exits in both Masters 1000 events leading up to New York.

The second quarter of the top half is led by Australia’s Alex de Minaur, the sixth seed, who is projected to meet Zverev in the quarter‑finals. De Minaur’s path does not include a showdown with Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz, but he will face former finalist Taylor Fritz, French Open finalist Flavio Cobolli, and last year’s semi‑finalist Félix Auger‑Aliassime.

The bottom half of the draw is stacked with firepower, containing all five recent US Open champions: Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Čilić. Djokovic’s quarter features Medvedev, Cincinnati finalist Francis Tiafoe, Canada finalist Brandon Nakashima, and a possible second‑round clash with either Wawrinka or Matteo Berrettini.

Beyond that, a potential meeting with defending champion Alcaraz looms in the final quarter. Alcaraz’s section is peppered with strong competitors: Canadian champion Ben Shelton, Cincinnati winner Arthur Fils, the big‑serving Alexander Bublik, Tommy Paul and the hard‑hitting Roman Safiullin, who has previously defeated Alcaraz and poses a significant threat, especially since the Spaniard has not played a singles match since April.

Turning to the women’s side, Sabalenka heads the first quarter. She is chasing a historic third consecutive US Open title—a feat not achieved since Serena Williams—and simultaneously fighting to retain her world No. 1 ranking.

On paper her draw appears manageable until the quarter‑finals, where she could encounter Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova. However, Sabalenka’s recent form is worrisome: she has gone 17‑7 since April and has not captured a title since March, leaving her vulnerable in a tournament where she has yet to win a major in 2026. The second quarter is dominated by Jessica Pegula, who is in contention to finish the event as world No. 1.

To do so, Pegula must win the championship outright; any lesser result will not suffice. Her section is fraught with danger, featuring Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova, Sorana Cîrstea, and a second‑round showdown against either former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin or two‑time US Open winner Venus Williams. In the bottom half, former US Open champion and current Cincinnati winner Coco Gauff leads the top of that section. Gauff also has a shot at the world No.

1 spot, but only by capturing the title. Awaiting her are last year’s finalist Amanda Anisimova, French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, Washington champion Alex Eala, and a potentially tricky early match with Paula Badosa.

The toughest quarter appears to be the one containing Elena Rybakina, Iga Świątek, Naomi Osaka, Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic. Rybakina could become the new world No.

1 if she reaches the semi‑finals, but she is managing a lingering left‑ankle/Achilles issue that flared up in Cincinnati and forced her to withdraw against Świątek. Her recent practice sessions have been tentative, so it remains to be seen whether she can stay healthy enough to claim the top ranking. Among the British contingent, Arthur Fery is noteworthy.

After a breakthrough summer that saw him reach the Wimbledon semi‑finals and the Winston‑Salem final (where he fell to third seed Ignacio Buse), Fery arrives in New York as the British No. 1. He will make his US Open debut against 13th seed Lorenzo Musetti, who has regained form in Cincinnati but is still recovering from a back injury, giving Fery a realistic chance.

Fery shares the top‑quarter draw with Zverev and fellow Brit Jan Choinski, who will meet Dutch player Botic van de Zandschulp. In the bottom half, Cameron Norrie—seeded 29th—faces Frenchman Luca van Assche for a place in the second round against Miomir Kecmanović or Denis Shapovalov. Overall, nine British players feature in the main draw, a record five of whom qualified. Other British qualifiers include world No.

110 Toby Samuel, who draws Czech Tomas Macháč (world No. 58); Harry Wendleken, who fought through nine sets and nine hours of qualifying to face 21st seed Luciano Darderi; and lucky loser Jacob Fearnley, set to meet Spaniard Martín Landaluce. On the women’s side, Katie Boulter is the sole direct entrant from the UK, opening against American wildcard Carol Young‑Suh Lee, a 24‑year‑old ranked 140th making her Grand Slam debut. A win would likely pit Boulter against mixed‑doubles champion and Wimbledon finalist Karolina Muchova in round two.

Harriet Dart secured her spot by defeating Heather Watson in the final qualifying round and will face American Peyton Stearns (world No. 54), a player she has previously lost to in Cincinnati but beat in US Open qualifying back in 2021. Fran Jones, for the second consecutive year, qualified and will meet Poland’s Magda Linette in a first‑time encounter.

Serena Williams will still be present at the tournament, having partnered with her sister Venus in the doubles draw after receiving a wildcard. The pair last played together at a Grand Slam in 2022. Prize money has risen again this year: the singles champions on both the men’s and women’s sides will each receive $5.5 million (approximately £4.7 million), while even first‑round losers are guaranteed $140,000 (about £120,000).

Predicting a winner remains difficult, but my personal forecast leans toward Zverev capturing his second Grand Slam title, given his favorable draw and recent form. In the women’s draw, I see Naomi Osaka breaking through to claim her third US Open crown and her first at Flushing Meadows since 2020.

Starting Sunday, the Sky Sports Tennis team will deliver 15 days of continuous coverage, broadcasting every point from every court. Commentators will include legends such as Martina Navratilova, Tim Henman, Marion Bartoli, Laura Robson, Ryan Harrison and Naomi Broady. The tournament will be live on Sky Sports from August 30, with contract‑free streaming available on NOW and the Sky Sports app, and the Laver Cup will also be shown live from the O2 in London later in September.