Our leading tipster, Lewis Jones—known in the betting community as Jones Knows—was in exceptional form last weekend, delivering a standout performance that many are now hoping he can replicate. The question on everyone’s mind is whether he can repeat that success in the upcoming fixtures.
Anfield is set to showcase attacking football, especially with Liverpool’s revamped lineup and the offensive pedigree of their newly appointed manager, Andoni Iraola. However, the current goals market seems to be demanding more from Nottingham Forest than they have demonstrated under Oliver Glasner so far. In the two recent matches against Leeds United, Forest failed to find the net, managing just 1.4 expected goals across a full 180 minutes of play.
This lack of cutting‑edge finishing is a cause for concern. Glasner has repeatedly highlighted the turmoil he inherited at Forest, noting key player departures and the limited time he has had to embed his tactical ideas.
Rebuilding a cohesive unit after such upheaval is a process that inevitably takes time. Adding a historical perspective, Glasner’s teams have historically struggled against Iraola’s sides, failing to score in four of the five previous meetings.
This pattern reinforces the case for a low‑scoring game, making an under‑2.5‑goals bet at 5/4 with Sky Bet an attractive value proposition. Turning to individual players, Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall’s goal against Crystal Palace featured prominently in last week’s column, and I am maintaining my confidence in him with a 4/1 price on Sky Bet. The reason for this confidence is that Dewsbury‑Hall should no longer be viewed merely as a traditional midfielder. In the Palace match, he operated in an advanced No.10 role, presenting a genuine goal threat and finishing with a superb left‑footed strike after cutting inside the box.
He recorded three attempts, one on target, and logged four touches inside the opposition penalty area. A week later, against Preston in the Carabao Cup, he registered seven shots despite the opposition being Championship‑level rather than Premier League quality.
While the level of opposition differs, his involvement in the final third was evident, and his partnership with Thierno Barry has created pockets of space between midfield and defence where he can finish moves himself. Bournemouth’s upcoming fixture should provide further opportunities for him to exploit these zones. There is also a compelling statistical angle when two newly promoted clubs meet early in a Premier League campaign.
In the last 36 such fixtures, the total goals line of over 1.5 has been surpassed on 35 occasions, indicating a high likelihood of multiple goals. Moreover, the most recent five promoted sides to host their first home game of the season have all secured victory, suggesting that Coventry could enjoy a favorable outcome. Nonetheless, Frank Lampard’s side has exposed defensive frailties, conceding three goals to Arsenal in the opening weekend and then allowing two more in a Carabao Cup loss to Plymouth. These lapses highlight the need for a more solid back line if they hope to keep clean sheets.
Hull City, on the other hand, have started their campaign in spectacular fashion, stunning Manchester United 2‑0 with a blend of aggression, organization, and set‑piece efficiency. Their ability to score from dead‑ball situations was on full display, and a simple betting system analysis shows that a one‑unit stake on Hull whenever they have opened a game as odds‑greater‑than‑2/1 since the start of last season would have yielded a £34.96 profit, thanks to wins at Millwall, Middlesbrough, and the iconic United victory. A safer approach may be to bypass the outright result and instead back both teams to score and the match to exceed 2.5 goals at evens with Sky Bet. Betting often forces a choice between interpreting a poor performance as a warning sign or as a price‑making opportunity.
I lean toward the latter when evaluating Tottenham Hotspur. Their 3‑0 defeat at Brentford was a disaster: the team appeared disjointed, lacked physical presence, and were defensively porous. Roberto De Zerbi admitted after the game that his side was "not a team" yet. Yet, De Zerbi’s track record in the immediate aftermath of a loss by three or more goals is impressive—eight wins out of eleven matches, with his squads averaging 2.1 goals per game.
This sample size is sufficient for me to consider a bet on Tottenham at 6/5 with Sky Bet, especially given the mitigating circumstances: five debutants started, key players like Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro were unavailable, and several squad members returned late from the World Cup or endured disrupted pre‑seasons. While these factors do not excuse the performance, they suggest that the issues are fixable and that a rebound is plausible. Chelsea appear poised to field the most potent attack in the league. Their recent 3‑0 victory over Fulham showcased an aggressive, vertical, and at times chaotic style.
Xabi Alonso’s use of Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers in the half‑space behind João Pedro produced all three goals, and Alonso praised the trio as central to his vision. However, the defensive side remains shaky; Robert Sánchez’s error led to two goals conceded, and Fulham threatened a vulnerable back line when Chelsea’s high press was bypassed. If Chelsea can tighten up defensively while maintaining their attacking verve, they should regularly produce high‑scoring affairs. Betting on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 4/5 with Sky Bet seems a prudent recurring strategy.
Brentford’s opening‑weekend statistics were eye‑catching: 26 shots and an expected‑goals value of 3.87—the highest xG of the weekend. Yet, on the road under Keith Andrews, they have averaged just 1.15 goals per game. Their previous encounter with Hull ended 0‑0, a dull stalemate with a combined xG of only 0.98. This suggests that the upcoming match could be a cautious affair, with both managers prioritizing avoidance of defeat over reckless attacking.
Consequently, a draw and under 2.5 goals at 100/30 with Sky Bet offers respectable value. Fulham’s recent 3‑2 loss to Chelsea highlighted Cole Palmer, but Josh King also made a strong impression. The teenage striker opened the scoring at Craven Cottage, logged three shots (two on target), and constantly threatened the opposition. Rather than being a one‑off flash, King demonstrated the qualities of a primary attacking outlet for Fulham.
The market still treats him as a developing youngster, but a 9/2 price for him to score with Sky Bet could be a savvy pick in a tightly contested match. Set‑piece opportunities remain a fertile ground for profit. Manchester United won merely 42% of their duels in a 2‑0 loss to Hull—the lowest figure among Premier League clubs that weekend—highlighting a physical deficiency. Since Michael Carrick’s appointment, United have conceded 20 league goals in 18 matches, half of which originated from set‑pieces.
Hull exploited this perfectly, netting both goals from dead‑ball situations. Ipswich’s Dara O’Shea, a frequent target on set‑pieces, averages 0.95 shots per 90 minutes over the past year, making an evens price for at least one shot and an 18/1 price to score with Sky Bet appealing.
Arsenal’s new signing, Christos Tzolis, impressed on debut against Coventry, registering four shots and eight touches inside the opponent’s box—more than any Arsenal player in that match. At 15/8 to score in a game where Arsenal are favorites, he presents a compelling option.
Conversely, Matty Cash at 11/4 to be booked is also attractive; he will likely be tasked with marking Tzolis, a player who historically draws a card every 206 minutes, indicating a high likelihood of a disciplinary incident. In summary, the early Premier League landscape offers numerous betting angles—from low‑scoring expectations in Forest versus Liverpool, to high‑scoring potentials for Chelsea, to set‑piece exploitation against United. By analyzing recent performances, historical trends, and individual player roles, bettors can identify value across a range of markets.