Our leading tipster, Lewis Jones—known online as Jones Knows—was in spectacular form last weekend, delivering a series of accurate predictions. The big question now is whether he can replicate that success in the upcoming fixtures.
One of the standout statistics comes from Manchester City defender Marc Guehi. In his last 17 appearances for both club and country, opponents have committed a total of 43 fouls against him, with two or more fouls recorded in ten of those games. This translates to a foul‑rate of roughly 59%, which sits comfortably above the implied probability of the 5/4 odds offered by Sky Bet. In other words, the market is undervaluing Guehi’s propensity to be brought down, making the bet a clear value proposition.
The visual evidence backs the numbers as well. Over the past year Guehi has become far more confident when carrying the ball into tight spaces. He now actively seeks challenges, shields the ball with composure, and has developed a knack for using an opponent’s momentum against them.
His improved ball‑carrying and defensive positioning make him a frequent target for fouls, especially in high‑intensity matches. Adding to the intrigue is the Selhurst Park factor. This will be Guehi’s first return to his former side, Crystal Palace, since his move to City.
The Palace faithful and players are likely to give him a warm welcome, and the heightened atmosphere could increase the number of challenges he faces. In effect, a ‘target on his back’ is likely to amplify the foul‑making opportunities. Furthermore, Enzo Maresca’s tactical decision to deploy Gueyi in a central‑midfield role against Bournemouth last weekend proved successful.
Should he retain that position, the probability of additional fouls—and thus the value of the 5/4 under‑2.5‑goals bet—rises even further. Turning to Liverpool’s home clash at Anfield, there is an expectation of open, attacking football under new manager Andoni Iraola. However, the goals market seems to be demanding more from Nottingham Forest than they have shown they can deliver under Oliver Glasner. Forest have failed to find the net in both matches against Leeds, registering a combined expected‑goals tally of just 1.4 across 180 minutes.
Their lack of cutting edge is a cause for concern. Glasner has repeatedly highlighted the upheaval he inherited at Forest—key departures and limited time to implement his ideas—suggesting the project may need a longer runway before the team can produce consistent attacking output. Historically, Glasner’s squads have struggled against Iraola‑led sides, failing to score in four of their last five meetings.
This historical trend reinforces the case for backing an under‑2.5‑goals market at 5/4 odds as a value play. In the Everton versus Crystal Palace game, I previously highlighted Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall’s goal and I am maintaining my confidence in him at 4/1 odds with Sky Bet. The reason for this confidence is that Dewsbury‑Hall should no longer be classified merely as a traditional midfielder.
Against Palace he operated in an advanced No 10 role, acting as a genuine goal threat and finishing with a superb left‑footed strike after cutting inside the box. In that match he recorded three shots, one on target, and four touches inside the opposition penalty area. The following midweek fixture against Preston saw him unleash seven attempts, albeit against Championship opposition, confirming his newfound license to attack. His partnership with Thierno Barry creates space between midfield and defence, allowing him to arrive late in the box and finish moves himself.
Bournemouth’s defensive setup should afford him further opportunities to exploit these pockets of space. There is also an appealing statistical trend when two newly‑promoted clubs meet early in a Premier League season. In the last 36 such fixtures, the total goals line of 1.5 has been surpassed on 35 occasions.
Moreover, the five most recent promoted sides to play their first home game of the campaign have all secured victory. History therefore points toward a positive result for Coventry City, although Frank Lampard’s side still need to tighten up defensively after a 3‑0 loss to Arsenal and a two‑goal concession to Plymouth in the Carabao Cup. Hull City’s recent 2‑0 upset of Manchester United illustrates how a newly promoted side can become a serious threat.
Their win showcased aggression, disciplined organization, and a set‑piece threat that could trouble many opponents this season. From a betting‑system perspective, a one‑unit stake on Hull whenever they have started a game at odds greater than 2/1 since the start of last season would have generated a £34.96 profit, thanks to away wins at Millwall (twice), Middlesbrough, and the memorable victory over United. The safest approach, however, is to remove the result from the equation and back both teams to score plus over 2.5 goals at evens with Sky Bet. When evaluating Tottenham Hotspur, it is essential to decide whether a poor performance signals a deeper problem or merely a pricing opportunity.
The 3‑0 defeat at Brentford was undeniably disastrous—Spurs looked disjointed, physically outmatched, and defensively vulnerable. Roberto De Zerbi admitted post‑match that his squad was "not a team" yet. Nonetheless, I am inclined to view this as a price‑making moment rather than a warning sign. De Zerbi’s record in the immediate aftermath of heavy defeats (three goals or more) is impressive: his teams have won eight of the last eleven such matches, averaging 2.1 goals per game.
This sample size is sufficient for me to place a bet on Tottenham at 6/5 odds with Sky Bet. The Brentford loss featured five competitive debutants for Spurs, the absence of Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro, and a disrupted pre‑season for several players returning from the World Cup.
While these factors do not excuse the performance, they suggest that the underlying issues are fixable and that the squad could rebound quickly. Chelsea’s recent display at Fulham has sparked debate about whether they now possess the league’s most potent attack.
The victory was aggressive, vertical, and at times chaotic, with Xabi Alonso positioning Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers behind João Pedro. The trio combined for all three goals, and Alonso praised them as central to his vision for the team. However, defensive frailties were exposed when Robert Sánchez made a costly error, allowing Fulham to score twice.
The lack of authority from the goalkeeper undermines the defensive cohesion. If Chelsea can resolve this structural weakness, they are likely to produce high‑scoring games on a regular basis.
Consequently, backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 4/5 odds with Sky Bet appears to be a sound strategy for the coming weeks. Brentford’s opening‑weekend performance generated 26 shots and an expected‑goals figure of 3.87—the highest xG of the round. Yet, on the road, the Bees have averaged just 1.15 goals per game under Keith Andrews. Their previous encounter with Hull City ended 0‑0, a match that offered little excitement and featured a combined xG of only 0.98.
This suggests both managers may adopt a cautious approach, prioritising avoidance of defeat over attacking ambition. The draw and under 2.5 goals market at 100/30 odds with Sky Bet therefore warrants serious consideration. Fulham’s teenage forward Josh King also deserves attention.
He opened the scoring at Craven Cottage, recorded three shots (two on target), and consistently threatened the opposition in transition. Rather than a one‑off flash, King has become a key attacking outlet for Fulham, showing willingness to carry the ball, take responsibility, and fire shots.
The market still treats him as a developing youngster, but at 9/2 odds for a goal with Sky Bet, he presents an attractive value proposition in what promises to be a tightly contested clash. Set‑piece opportunities continue to be a rich vein for profit. Manchester United managed just 42% of duels in their 2‑0 loss to Hull, the lowest figure across the Premier League on opening weekend, highlighting a lack of physical dominance.
Since Michael Carrick took charge, United have conceded 20 league goals in 18 matches, half of which have arisen from set‑pieces—a ratio surpassed only by Bournemouth and Leeds. Hull’s victory demonstrated how to exploit this weakness, scoring both goals from dead‑ball situations. Ipswich Town’s defender Dara O’Shea is the primary target on set‑pieces, averaging 0.95 shots per 90 minutes over the past year—a high output for a defender.
He is priced at evens for at least one shot and 18/1 to score with Sky Bet, making him a compelling pick. Arsenal’s new signing Christos Tzolis made an immediate impact, delivering a fearless debut against Coventry with four shots and eight touches inside the opposition box—more than any Arsenal player in that match. At 15/8 odds to score with Sky Bet, he is a player to watch, especially as Matty Cash is priced at 11/4 to receive a booking, reflecting the likelihood of a physical battle between the two.
Overall, the early Premier League fixtures provide a wealth of betting angles, from value fouls and set‑piece specialists to under‑priced goal‑scorers and high‑scoring matchups. By analysing statistical trends, historical patterns, and tactical nuances, punters can identify opportunities that the market has yet to fully price in.