Hollie returns to set the scene for Friday's premier racing action at York's Ebor Festival, where the highlight will be the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. The weather has taken a turn, with heavy rain soaking the Knavesmire, and I worry that the altered ground conditions could diminish the chances of the lightning‑quick American challenger Bacio in the Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35) at York. Bacio, trained by Wesley Ward, displayed astonishing speed in the massive three‑year‑old handicap at Royal Ascot.
He thrives on a rapid, firm surface, and the five‑furlong sprint at York would normally be a perfect fit. However, his reputation has been built on racing on much faster, dryer ground, and the soft, rain‑laden turf may blunt his cutting edge. In stark contrast, the Aga Khan Studs' filly Rayevka proved her versatility earlier in the season, taking a Group race at Longchamp in May on yielding ground before stepping up to contest the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she was only marginally beaten. Rayevka combines speed with a genuine ability to handle softer going, making her a strong contender to reverse the fortunes of Aidan O'Brien's colt, who appeared uncomfortable on the York track in his July Cup outing.
O'Brien’s runner is expected to prefer a quicker surface, so the current softer state could tilt the balance in Rayevka's favour. Do not be discouraged by a string of runner‑up finishes when you consider Adaay Of Scarlett in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3:00) at York.
Hugo Palmer's colt has been a consistent presence in elite Group Two contests this season, taking part in the Coventry Stakes, the July Stakes, and the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. Although he has yet to secure a win at this level, each defeat has been respectable, and the upcoming field appears weaker than his previous opponents. This race presents a genuine opportunity for him to turn the tide. First‑time cheekpieces should give regular jockey Oisin Murphy the extra burst of speed he needs, but he must also adapt to the softer ground that will be underfoot.
The filly’s dam performed well on cut‑grass surfaces, suggesting a genetic predisposition that could be advantageous. Aidan O'Brien’s Marco Polo is another intriguing prospect. The son of Night Of Thunder, who has only raced once, must be held in high regard at Ballydoyle to be entered in this Group Two sprint.
As a half‑brother to the useful Saber Strike, Marco Polo could pose a serious threat to more seasoned rivals if he manages to find a rhythm on the yielding turf. Local trainer Kevin Ryan boasts an impressive record in this particular race, having secured four victories in the past. His unbeaten colt Matteo, while perhaps priced on the high side, is targeting a hat‑trick of wins. The conditions at York will be tougher than the Beverley track where Matteo previously excelled, yet his class suggests he could still deliver a standout performance.
Turning to the staying division, Caballo De Mar – a dual Group One winner – will aim to rebound from a sub‑par run in the Gold Cup when he lines up for the Group Two Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2:25). After a heat‑stress episode forced him to stop abruptly at the Royal meeting, the extended two‑mile distance and softened ground should suit his stamina and allow him to showcase his true ability. George Scott’s star, who suffered heat stress at Goodwood, is expected to be fully recovered and ready to contest the Lonsdale Cup over the softer, rain‑softened turf.
The longer trip could bring out his best attributes, and the conditions may play to his strengths. Ralph Beckett’s Amiloc remains untested over this distance after a mishap at the start of the Goodwood Cup, where he unseated his rider Hector Crouch.
Nevertheless, the added mileage could suit him perfectly. Last season he demonstrated high‑class form, notably winning the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes, and the extended distance may finally allow him to fulfill his potential. I will be backing my boss Archie Watson’s progressive three‑year‑old Exclusive Code in the opening race at York, the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (1:50). The colt possesses the ability to overcome a significant weight increase after a recent victory at the Goodwood Festival and has shown a preference for good‑to‑soft ground.
At Goodwood, he dominated from the front, repelling a strong challenge from Zennor Storm, who finished an eye‑catching second. While I am not entirely convinced he will handle the softer York ground as comfortably, I anticipate a solid performance from this Blue Point progeny. Zennor Storm’s trainer, William Haggas, also fields Eklleem, who broke well at Ripon and looked impressive.
Although his recent performance in North Yorkshire was promising, the step up in class and the unfavourable draw could prove challenging. Ralph Beckett’s improving four‑year‑old Master Vintner ticks all the boxes for the mile‑and‑a‑half Assured Data Protection Handicap (4:10).
After a heavy‑ground win at Goodwood last autumn, the son of Mastercraftsman sharpened his form dramatically when fitted with blinkers for the first time at Thirsk earlier this month. He appears more than capable of handling a five‑pound weight increase in this race. Master Builder, another contender, heads to the Knavesmire after a win earlier in May, having shown he can stay the distance. He may have even more to offer over the higher‑class field, while Jane Chapple‑Hyam’s chestnut Primo Lara cannot be dismissed after a smooth debut at Ascot.
Overall, Friday’s programme at York promises a fascinating mix of sprinters and stayers, each dealing with the after‑effects of rain‑softened ground. The softer turf could level the playing field, rewarding horses with proven versatility and stamina while challenging those that rely on firm, fast surfaces.
Bettors should weigh recent form, ground preferences, and any equipment changes such as cheekpieces or blinkers when making their selections. The Nunthorpe Stakes, in particular, may see a surprise winner if Rayevka capitalises on her adaptability, while the staying races could see seasoned campaigners like Caballo De Mar and Master Vintner reassert their class over the extended distances.