During his spell at Chelsea, Nicolas Jackson acquired an unwanted reputation as a striker who often failed to finish the chances he created. He missed a surprisingly large number of clear‑cut opportunities, leading many observers to label him as unreliable in front of goal.
Does this mean that clubs of a higher calibre are making a mistake by considering the Senegalese forward? The answer is not that simple.
The remarks made by Brentford chairman Matthew Benham at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference earlier this year shed light on why Jackson’s goal record may be misleading. Benham argued that, for a forward, the ability to find the right positions on the pitch is far more telling than the raw number of goals scored. He explained, "There is an awful amount of randomness in finishing. If you show me two players at a similar level who both netted fifteen goals last season, but one of them had twice as many chances, I would prefer the one who created twice the opportunities." This perspective directly applies to Jackson’s game.
Benham, whose data‑driven approach has underpinned Brentford’s recent over‑performance, cited Everton’s Beto as an example of a player whose positional sense outweighed his finishing record. He added that Jackson’s knack for getting into shooting positions is precisely what makes him valuable. In fact, statistical analyses over the past decade – considering every player who has logged at least 5,000 Premier League minutes and excluding penalty kicks – show that only Erling Haaland boasts a higher expected‑goals (xG) per 90 minutes figure than Jackson.
In other words, Jackson is a genuine "chance magnet." While Jackson did manage to reach double‑digit Premier League goal tallies in each of his two seasons with Chelsea, his conversion rate was underwhelming. He turned just 18 of his 61 clear‑cut chances into goals, a figure that falls short of the league’s elite finishers.
This inefficiency ultimately prompted Chelsea to look elsewhere for a more reliable scorer. The pattern repeated during his loan spell at Bayern Munich, where he again excelled at finding space but struggled to consistently finish.
Nevertheless, his time in Germany demonstrated that his positional instincts could translate into tangible output when given the right service. Jackson scored eleven goals across all competitions for Bayern, despite starting only fifteen matches. In the Bundesliga, his goals‑per‑90‑minutes rate from open play was second only to Harry Kane. Kane averaged 0.79 open‑play goals per 90 minutes, while Jackson posted a respectable 0.72.
The narrow gap between the eventual European Golden Shoe winner and Jackson underscores how close he was to the very top of the scoring charts, especially considering Bayern’s dominance in a league where they regularly control possession and create numerous chances. Bayern’s head coach, Vincent Kompany, has publicly defended Jackson against criticism.
Kompany noted that when a team is performing well, there is a tendency to single out individual players for blame without justification. He praised Jackson’s work ethic, his contribution to Senegal’s AFCON triumph, and insisted that the striker had done nothing wrong. Kompany also pointed out that comparing Jackson to established stars such as Harry Kane, Michael Olise or Luis Díaz is unfair, as each occupies a different role and carries distinct expectations. According to Bayern legend Lothar Matthäus, Kompany was eager to retain Jackson but was constrained by the player’s price tag, which Chelsea would likely consider prohibitive.
This financial reality opened the door for another Premier League side – Aston Villa – to explore a move. Villa have already secured Alejandro Garnacho on loan from Chelsea, meaning they cannot simultaneously take Jackson on loan under UEFA’s 45‑day swap‑deal rule that applies after the Morgan Rogers transfer. However, the club recently received a British‑record £117 million fee from Chelsea for Rogers, giving them significant financial flexibility. Manager Unai Emery, who previously worked with Jackson at Villarreal, believes he can extract more from the striker than any other coach.
Emery’s influence on Jackson’s development is well documented. In a Sky Sports interview, Jackson credited Emery with teaching him the tactical nuances of the game. He explained that, before arriving in Europe, he relied on instinct and raw athleticism – “running like crazy, taking the ball and dribbling” – but Emery helped him become a more disciplined, intelligent forward. This mentorship paid off when Jackson scored the final goal of Emery’s successful tenure at Villarreal, a dramatic winner against Almería that came on the day the club mourned the death of vice‑president José Manuel Llaneza.
When asked about Jackson after the match, Emery said, "He has to evolve so that his work for the team can be transformed into effectiveness." The manager’s comment acknowledges that while Jackson’s movement and chance creation are elite, his finishing still requires refinement. At just 25 years old, Jackson has ample time to improve this aspect of his game. For context, Villa’s other forwards are already entering the latter stages of their careers: Ollie Watkins is 30, while Tammy Abraham, who spent a loan spell at Villa last season, is 28. Jackson’s youth gives Villa a unique opportunity to mold a striker who can potentially dominate the Premier League for the next decade.
With Emery’s tactical acumen and a club willing to invest in his development, there is a strong case that a reunion could unlock the next chapter of Jackson’s career, turning the perception of him as “underrated” into a reality where his contributions are finally reflected in both goals and accolades.