Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with insight to illuminate the Premier League stories that matter. This week’s focus includes three key topics: the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player worth watching this weekend. Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City’s priority in the title race is securing points rather than obsessing over goal difference. "It’s simply about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the Gunners and the Citizens separated only by the number of goals they have netted, the margin could prove decisive in the final stretch. Arsenal drew encouragement from City’s 1‑0 win at Burnley, which temporarily placed the London side at the summit. Arteta’s men still need to win their matches, but a solitary victory may not be sufficient if rivals continue to pile up points.
A worse outcome in Wednesday’s fixture would have left Arsenal in a far more precarious position. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference isn’t just an attacking exercise. "You have to score and you have to stop conceding – it’s a two‑sided effort," he explained.
For Arsenal, the lingering question is whether they can elevate their offensive output when it matters most. Arsenal can point out that they are only three goals behind Manchester City in the scoring column – a gap that feels modest, especially when you consider their superior set‑piece record.
The Gunners have already netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. That edge has been a significant factor in keeping the gap narrow.
However, Arsenal’s set‑piece production has dipped recently, with just one set‑piece goal in their last four league games after a pair of corner strikes against Chelsea in early March. Re‑establishing that threat will be crucial in the weeks ahead. The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. On that front, Arteta can take some solace from the numbers at the Etihad: Arsenal generated 1.32 expected goals (xG) from open play, compared with City’s 0.98.
Although the match ended in a loss, the underlying statistics suggest the Gunners were more threatening in the build‑up phase. Kai Havertz, deployed as the No 9, was central to that performance.
He held up the ball, linked play, and constantly tested the City defence, even though he finished with just one goal. His five shots represented the highest total by an opposition striker at the Etihad all season, underscoring his impact despite the final scoreline. It was only Havertz’s second Premier League start up front this season, coinciding with the return of another player whose campaign has been marred by injuries. Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific creator in the game, and his partnership with Eberechi Eze lifted Arsenal’s technical level in the attacking third.
Looking ahead, Arteta will need to keep his key forwards fit for the remaining five league fixtures. Bukayo Saka, who Arteta expects to rejoin the lineup against Newcastle, joins Havertz and Ødegaard as the trio that can spark a surge in goal production. Remarkably, the three have not started together in the Premier League since the 5‑1 victory over Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a gap of nearly 18 months.
When you examine Arsenal’s record with and without those three, the importance of their combined presence becomes evident. The team averages exactly 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces regardless of their lineup, indicating a consistent threat from dead‑ball situations. In contrast, open‑play xG jumps to 1.47 when Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka all start, but drops to 1.11 when any of them are missing.
Getting all three on the pitch simultaneously is a logistical challenge, and it is not a guaranteed formula for success. Saka’s recent goal return has been modest – two goals in his last 14 league appearances – while Ødegaard has managed only one in his previous 21 outings. The supporting cast must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 matches.
Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, most of which have come against lower‑half opposition. His contribution could be vital in upcoming fixtures against teams fighting relegation. The desire to boost goal difference is palpable among the players. Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning you still think, ‘let’s go out and score more’, because we know the title race will be tight." That mindset, combined with the tactical tools at Arteta’s disposal, suggests Arsenal still possess the means to finish ahead of City.
While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle’s offensive rebuild remains a concern for Eddie Howe. The Magpies are averaging just 1.41 goals per game – their lowest output since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th. Sitting 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, their attacking investments have yet to pay off.
High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa have failed to score in 24 combined Premier League appearances. Howe is now leaning on Danish U21 international William Osula as his preferred striker, and Osula has begun to show promise by scoring in back‑to‑back games. Nevertheless, Alexander Isak’s 20‑goal seasons are a thing of the past, and the current top scorer, Bruno Guimarães, sits on nine goals. Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle clash in Saturday Night Football, with coverage beginning at 5 pm on Sky Sports Premier League. In summary, Arsenal’s technical issues have been dissected in previous columns, highlighting the necessity of starting Havertz against City at the Etihad. The data suggests that if the Gunners can keep their key attackers healthy, maintain set‑piece potency, and improve open‑play creativity, they have a realistic shot at outscoring Manchester City and clinching the title.