Our football betting specialist, Jones Knows, shares his analysis ahead of the upcoming Premier League fixtures and highlights a 20/1 treble opportunity. When Sunday’s betting slips arrive, there’s a natural urge to cling to the short‑odds "banker". Yet, occasionally the market overreacts – and that appears to be happening with Bournemouth. The Cherries are being priced as if they are up against a side destined for relegation, which doesn’t reflect the reality on the pitch.
In contrast, Crystal Palace are well‑organised, resilient and rarely give away chances. The draw is often the most undervalued result in football wagering, and that’s precisely where value can surface, especially when the statistics begin to support it. Currently, the Premier League is experiencing a noticeable rise in drawn matches – 18 of the last 49 games have ended level, equating to a 37 % draw rate, comfortably above the historical average.
Bournemouth have managed to share the points in six of their previous eight outings – they seem to be specialists in falling just short of a win. Palace, on the other hand, have accumulated ten draws from thirty‑three fixtures this season. Sky Bet’s 3/1 price on a draw therefore represents an excellent betting proposition. When you evaluate player markets at this stage of the campaign, motivation and narrative can be as influential as raw statistics, and this fixture ticks all the boxes.
Bruno Fernandes to record an assist at 6/4 with Sky Bet is a compelling play. Fernandes currently sits on 19 Premier League assists this season – just one shy of the all‑time single‑season record held jointly by Thierry Henry (2002/03) and Kevin De Bruyne (2019/20).
Watching his recent performances, it’s clear he is more intent on creating than finishing. His first instinct inside the box is to thread through‑balls, find runners and manufacture chances.
That creative mindset is exactly what you want when backing assist markets. At 6/4 you are backing an elite playmaker in top form, with a clear target in sight, pulling the strings in a home environment where he thrives.
All signs point to another assist being firmly on the agenda. If it feels like a relegation battle, smells like a relegation battle, and sounds like a relegation battle, then it probably is one. The footballing gods appear to have made up their minds about Tottenham.
That view was reinforced after their 1‑0 win at Wolves, a performance that left much to be desired. West Ham’s injury‑time winner was a painful blow, and further setbacks to key players such as Xavi Simons – their only truly creative outlet in form – and Dominic Solanke have compounded Roberto De Zerbi’s challenges. Nevertheless, one corner of the market still places faith in the Spurs side: the betting exchanges.
This actually works in our favour, because it allows us to back Aston Villa at a striking 21/20 price with Sky Bet for a victory. The market has become overly optimistic about Tottenham’s need for points, overlooking the fundamental fact that they are inferior in every department.
Aston Villa, under Unai Emery, are notoriously hard to beat at home – they have already defeated Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United at Villa Park this season. Overcoming Spurs should be a relatively straightforward task for them. Morgan Gibbs‑White to score anytime at 100/30 with Sky Bet is too tempting to ignore. The Forest midfielder is finishing the season like a man on a mission.
Seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances say everything about his current level. He is playing with freedom, confidence and, most importantly, a tangible end product – attributes that have not always defined his game. With an international summer looming, Gibbs‑White is making a strong case for Thomas Tuchel to include him in England’s World Cup squad. That sort of motivation can lift a player’s output, and it is evident he is taking on greater responsibility in the final third, getting into scoring positions and delivering quality at the right moments.
Manchester City have built their title charge on blistering starts. They never ease into a match – they suffocate opponents from the first whistle. The numbers are striking: nine goals scored and none conceded in the opening 15 minutes of matches this season. City have been ahead at halftime 21 times in the league – six more than Arsenal, who sit second on the list.
That gap highlights how consistently they seize early control and, crucially, maintain it. At 6/5 with Sky Bet for Manchester City to be winning at both half‑time and full‑time, you are pricing a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the campaign. Betting summary: 1‑point treble on Jayden Bogle +2 fouls, a draw in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace, and Bruno Fernandes +1 assist (20/1 with Sky Bet). Play Super 6 for a chance to win £250k!
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