Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with opinion to highlight the Premier League stories you need to know. This week’s agenda covers three key topics: the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑force approach after the Isak era, and a player worth keeping an eye on this weekend. Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that his side is focused on securing points rather than obsessing over goal difference in the race against Arsenal. "At the end of the day it’s about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet the two clubs are currently separated by a single goal in the scoring column, meaning any shift in firepower could tip the balance. Arsenal can take a small morale boost from City’s 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which temporarily lifted the Citizens to the top of the table. While a win is essential for Mikel Arteta’s men, a solitary three points may not be sufficient if the gap in goals scored widens.
The Gunners must therefore look to improve their attacking output if they hope to stay level with the champions. Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City, a margin that does not look insurmountable.
A major factor in narrowing that gap has been Arsenal’s proficiency from set‑pieces. The Gunners have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. After a recent dry spell of just one set‑piece strike in four league matches, Arteta will be eager to see his delivery specialists return to form, especially after the double corner‑goal haul against Chelsea earlier in March. However, the real area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity.
Despite the 2‑1 defeat at the Etihad, Arsenal produced a higher total of open‑play expected goals (xG) than City – 1.32 to 0.98 – indicating that the Gunners are generating quality chances even when the result does not reflect it. Kai Havertz, deployed as the No 9, played a pivotal role in that performance. He held up the ball, linked play, and threatened the City box, although he ultimately finished with just one goal. His five shots represented the highest tally by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season, underscoring his influence.
Havertz’s impact is amplified when he partners with Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka. Ødegaard topped the match’s chance‑creation chart, while Saka’s return from injury is expected for the upcoming clash with Newcastle. Remarkably, the trio has not started a Premier League game together since the 5‑1 win over Crystal Palace in December 2024, a period that highlighted their combined potency.
When all three are on the pitch, Arsenal’s open‑play xG rises to 1.47 per game, compared with just 1.11 when one or more are missing. Keeping this core group fit for the final five league fixtures is crucial. Saka has managed only two goals in his last 14 appearances, and Ødegaard has scored once in his previous 21 outings, suggesting both need to rediscover their scoring touch. Supporting players must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for merely three league goals this season, while Leandro Trossard has failed to find the net in his last 13 matches.
Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring chart with 12 league goals, nine of which came against lower‑half opposition – a reminder that he can still deliver when the stakes are lower. Arsenal’s set‑piece threat remains consistent regardless of personnel, averaging 0.45 expected goals from dead‑ball situations whether Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka start or not. Yet the disparity in open‑play creativity is stark, reinforcing the need for the attacking trio to feature together as often as possible. Martinelli’s recent comments to Sky Sports echo the squad’s mindset: "When you’re winning you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals’, because we know it’ll be tight." The Gunners are aware that a narrow victory may not be enough in a title race where goal difference could become decisive.
Turning to the north, Newcastle’s attack remains a concern for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game – their lowest since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
Sitting 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, their offensive rebuild appears stalled. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league appearances between them.
Howe is now leaning on young Danish talent William Osula as his primary striker, hoping the teenager’s recent back‑to‑back goals can spark a turnaround. Meanwhile, Alexander Isak’s form has dipped; after two seasons of 20‑plus goals, his output has dwindled, leaving Bruno Guimarães as Newcastle’s top scorer with nine. The club’s inability to convert investment into goals highlights the challenges they face as they approach the season’s climax. Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could pose a threat to Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for a Friday Night Football fixture, while Arsenal and Newcastle meet in a Saturday Night Football showdown, both matches broadcast on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event. In summary, Arsenal possess the tools – a lethal set‑piece unit, a promising front three, and the statistical edge in open‑play chance creation – to keep pace with Manchester City’s title charge. The key will be maintaining fitness, restoring goal‑scoring confidence among the midfield trio, and ensuring that supporting attackers contribute more consistently.
If they can do that, the Gunners may well turn the goal‑difference equation in their favour and keep the title race alive until the final whistle.