Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with insight to illuminate the Premier League’s most pressing narratives. This week’s focus includes: - Can Arsenal outscore Manchester City? - Newcastle’s direct‑play approach after the Isak era - A player to keep an eye on this weekend Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has made it clear that his side is chasing points first and foremost in the race for the league crown, rather than obsessing over goal difference.
"It’s simply about winning matches," he told Sky Sports. Yet, with Arsenal and City currently separated only by the total number of goals they have netted, the margin could prove decisive as the season draws to a close. Arsenal drew a morale‑boosting 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which temporarily placed City at the summit, and that result gave the Gunners a glimpse of what they need: a win in every remaining fixture.
However, a single win may not suffice if the title chase comes down to a goal‑difference tiebreaker. The stakes were evident when City’s 1‑0 win at Burnley seemed to widen the gap, but Arsenal’s resilience suggested they could still keep pace. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference isn’t merely an offensive task.
"You have to score, yes, but you also have to keep a clean sheet," he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can sharpen their attacking output while maintaining defensive solidity.
### Arsenal’s Goal‑Scoring Landscape Arteta can point out that his side trails City by just three goals—a gap that feels narrow given the context. One advantage Arsenal enjoys is their proficiency from set‑pieces.
They have already recorded a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This edge has been a cornerstone of their scoring, especially after a recent dip where they managed only one set‑piece goal in four league games following a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March. Nevertheless, the larger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity.
In the recent Etihad clash, Arsenal actually generated a higher expected‑goals (xG) tally from open play than City—1.32 compared with City’s 0.98. This statistic suggests that, despite the 2‑1 defeat, the Gunners were creating more quality chances in the final third. ### The Impact of Kai Havertz Kai Havertz’s return to the front line proved pivotal.
Although he missed a golden opportunity when his one‑on‑one chance was saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later headed an early‑second‑half cross over the bar, his overall contribution was significant. Havertz acted as a true focal point: holding up the ball, linking midfield to attack, and constantly threatening the City penalty area.
He logged five shots—the most by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season—highlighting his influence even if the final scoreline didn’t fully reflect his efforts. It was only Havertz’s second Premier League start as a striker this season, yet his presence coincided with the return of another key player who has struggled with injuries throughout the campaign. ### Creative Spark from Odegaard and Saka Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific creator in the Manchester City game, feeding Havertz and others with incisive passes.
His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a replacement, elevated Arsenal’s technical level in the attacking third. Keeping Ødegaard, Havertz, and Bukayo Saka fit for the final five league fixtures will be crucial. Arteta has hinted that Saka, who is on the recovery path, could rejoin the starting XI against Newcastle. A striking statistic: the trio of Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka have not all started together in a Premier League match since Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024—over a year ago.
When all three feature, Arsenal’s expected goals from open play rise to 1.47 per game, versus just 1.11 when one or more are absent. This underscores their collective importance. ### Goal‑Difference and Set‑Piece Consistency Arsenal’s set‑piece threat remains reliable regardless of personnel.
The team averages 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces per match whether Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka are on the pitch or not. However, the disparity in open‑play creativity is stark. The Gunners must find ways to sustain high‑quality chances even when injuries force rotation. While Saka’s recent goal return has been modest—two goals in his last 14 league outings—and Ødegaard has managed only one in his last 21, the supporting cast also needs to step up.
Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 appearances. Viktor Gyökeres, despite being the club’s top scorer with 12 league goals, has predominantly scored against lower‑half opposition, highlighting a potential reliance on weaker teams for his output. ### Player Perspectives on Goal Difference Gabriel Martinelli recently told Sky Sports that Arsenal are aware of the importance of goal difference. "When you’re winning, you still think, ‘let’s go out and score more,’ because we know the title race will be tight," he explained.
This mindset reflects a growing awareness within the squad that every additional goal could be decisive. ### Newcastle’s Parallel Struggles While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of resurgence, Newcastle’s offensive rebuild under Eddie Howe remains problematic. The Magpies have recorded their lowest goals‑per‑game average—1.41—since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
Sitting 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, their attacking investments have yet to pay off. Strikers Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, acquired for a combined £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league matches together. Howe is now considering giving Denmark U21 international William Osula a more prominent role.
Osula has shown promise, netting in back‑to‑back games, but the team’s overall goal output still lags. Alexander Isak, who previously hit the 20‑goal mark in consecutive seasons, has not replicated that form at Newcastle.
Their current top scorer, Bruno Guimarães, has managed only nine league goals. ### Broader Premier League Landscape Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United in their upcoming Monday Night Football fixture.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle will meet in the Saturday Night Football showdown, with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. on Sky Sports Premier League. Monday Night Football will see Manchester United take on Brentford, kicking off at 8 p.m.
after a 6.30 p.m. pre‑match build‑up.
### Looking Ahead The previous week’s column correctly identified Arsenal’s technical shortcomings and argued for Havertz’s inclusion against City at the Etihad. As the season enters its final stretch, the Gunners must maintain fitness across their attacking core, exploit their set‑piece superiority, and translate open‑play chances into goals. If they can do so while keeping clean sheets, they will keep the title race alive and possibly edge Manchester City on goal difference.
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