Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven opinion column where Nick Wright breaks down the Premier League stories that matter most. This week’s focus is on the looming title clash between Arsenal and Manchester City and whether the Gunners can produce enough firepower to outgun Pep Guardiola's side. Pep Guardiola has been clear: Manchester City’s priority is simply to collect points, not to chase a superior goal difference. "It’s all about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet the two clubs sit level on points and are separated only by the number of goals they have scored. In a league where the title could be decided on a single goal, the importance of finding the back of the net cannot be ignored. Arsenal’s recent 1‑0 victory over Burnley gave them a morale boost and, more importantly, kept them within striking distance of the leaders. Mikel Arteta’s men know that a win is the minimum requirement, but they also understand that a solitary point may not be enough if City continue to rack up goals.
The Gunners must therefore look to improve both their defensive solidity and, crucially, their attacking output. Guardiola reminded everyone that goal difference is a two‑sided affair: "It’s about scoring and not conceding, not just one side of the equation," he said. For Arsenal, the bigger question is whether they can raise the intensity of their attack to match City’s relentless pressure. ### Where Arsenal stand in the scoring race Arsenal are currently only three goals behind Manchester City, a gap that looks modest when you consider the broader context.
A significant factor in narrowing that gap has been Arsenal’s proficiency from set‑pieces. The Gunners have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight.
This edge has helped them stay competitive despite scoring fewer goals from open play. However, the recent dip in set‑piece returns – just one goal from four league games after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March – suggests that Arsenal cannot rely solely on dead‑ball situations.
They need to rediscover their potency in live play. ### Open‑play performance against City Despite losing 2‑1 at the Etihad, Arsenal’s underlying numbers were encouraging.
Their expected goals (xG) from open play stood at 1.32, compared with City’s 0.98. This indicates that the Gunners created more quality chances than the scoreline reflected. Kai Havertz, deployed as a makeshift No 9, was instrumental in that performance.
He held up the ball, linked midfield to attack, and forced City’s defence to stay on high alert. Havertz recorded five shots – the most by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season – and was involved in the majority of Arsenal’s threatening moves. Havertz’s return to a central role has revitalised Arsenal’s attacking shape.
His ability to occupy defenders creates space for the likes of Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka to operate between the lines. Ødegaard, in particular, was the most creative player on the pitch, crafting more chances than any opponent. The combination of Havertz’s hold‑up play and Ødegaard’s vision helped Arsenal generate a higher xG total despite the final result.
### Injury concerns and player availability A major challenge for Arteta is keeping his key forwards fit for the final stretch of the season. Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka have not started a Premier League match together since the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024, nearly 18 months ago. Their simultaneous presence has historically lifted Arsenal’s open‑play xG from 1.11 to 1.47 per game, underscoring their collective importance.
Saka’s recent injury lay‑off has limited his output – he has scored only two goals in his last 14 league appearances. Ødegaard’s scoring record is similarly modest, with just one goal in his previous 21 outings. Both players need to rediscover their goal‑scoring touch, while the supporting cast – Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, and Leandro Trossard – must also contribute more consistently. Martinelli, for example, has only three league goals this season, and Trossard has failed to find the net in his last 13 games.
Viktor Gyökeres, who leads the team with 12 Premier League goals, has shown a knack for scoring against lower‑ranked opponents, netting nine of his tally against teams in the bottom half of the table. His form could be vital in matches where Arsenal need to add to their goal tally without over‑relying on the creative trio.
### The psychological edge of goal‑difference awareness Arsenal players appear to be aware of the goal‑difference battle. Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning you start thinking, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know it’s going to be tight." This mindset reflects a growing recognition that every extra goal could be decisive in a title race that is as much about margins as it is about points.
### Contrasting Newcastle’s struggles While Arsenal are fine‑tuning their attack, Newcastle United face a different set of problems. The Magpies have slipped to 14th place after three consecutive defeats, and their goal‑scoring rate has fallen to a post‑2021/22 low of 1.41 goals per game. Significant investments in Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa – £124 million combined – have yet to translate into league goals, as both forwards have failed to score in 24 combined appearances.
Manager Eddie Howe is now turning to young Danish striker William Osula, who has shown promise by scoring in back‑to‑back matches. Yet the team’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with only nine league goals, highlighting the ongoing challenges in Newcastle’s attacking rebuild. ### Looking ahead The upcoming Saturday Night Football fixture pits Arsenal against Newcastle at the Emirates. For the Gunners, it is an opportunity to close the goal‑difference gap and solidify their claim to the title.
For Newcastle, it is a chance to halt their slide and regain confidence. In summary, Arsenal have the tools to outgun Manchester City – a potent set‑piece threat, an improving open‑play xG record, and the creative spark of Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka when they are all fit. The next five league games will be decisive. If they can keep their key attackers healthy, convert more of the chances they already create, and maintain the mental focus on adding goals even when they are ahead, they stand a realistic chance of winning the title on goal difference.
The battle is tight, the stakes are high, and the final chapter of the Premier League season promises plenty of drama.