Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear poised to join them, leaving the question of which other club will share their fate. With Leeds United and Nottingham Forest now comfortably ahead of the relegation zone—Leeds eight points clear and Forest five—the battle for survival seems to have narrowed to a direct showdown between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.
Both sides sit just above the drop line, West Ham in 17th place and Spurs in 18th, separated by a mere two points. With only five matches remaining in the campaign, the pressure is mounting for each club to secure the points they need to stay up. West Ham's recent goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday could be viewed as a missed chance to pull away; a win would have widened the gap between the two rivals. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, and every forthcoming fixture carries the weight of potential survival or relegation.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, emphasizing the need to stay positive. His counterpart at Tottenham, Roberto De Zerbi, echoed a similar sentiment, insisting that his side can win their final five games after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have shown under De Zerbi, noting that the Italian coach has already made a noticeable impact on the team's performances.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than a single point," Carragher said. Despite the optimism, Spurs’ recent form remains troubling. After a loss to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to fifteen games – more than double the length of any other club’s run.
The next‑longest unbeaten stretch belongs to Burnley, who have gone seven games without a loss. Breaking the fifteen‑game drought will be a tall order, even against a Wolves side already condemned to relegation. Carragher warned that Wolves are difficult opponents at home, saying, "I can’t see them losing the game, but they could nick it; however, it’s always tough at Wolves given how they set themselves up." In contrast, West Ham have managed to reverse their fortunes under Nuno. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league matches, and their resurgence began in January when Callum Wilson scored a dramatic 93rd‑minute winner at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, securing a 2‑1 victory.
Since that turning point, West Ham have amassed five wins and three defeats from twelve games, raising their points‑per‑game average from 0.7 to 1.6. Forest, meanwhile, have enjoyed a five‑match unbeaten run—the longest of their season—following a 4‑1 triumph over Burnley. When looking at the difficulty of the remaining fixtures, Spurs appear to have a slightly easier path: the average league position of their final five opponents is 11th, compared with 9.4 for West Ham and 8.4 for Forest. However, home‑away balance favours West Ham, who will play three of their last five games at the London Stadium, while Spurs have only two home games.
Tottenham’s itinerary includes challenging away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea, both of which have historically troubled them. Spurs have not won any of their last seven Premier League encounters at Stamford Bridge, have lost five consecutive games to Chelsea, and have failed to beat Aston Villa in their last four meetings.
West Ham’s schedule is not without its own obstacles. Their away fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle United, and they must also host Arsenal, who are chasing the title. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest face the toughest set of opponents based on league position, with three away games that include clashes against Chelsea and Manchester United after a trip to Sunderland.
According to Opta’s data, the safety threshold this season could be around 38 points. Forest, having moved to 36 points after a crucial victory over Burnley, may need just one more win to reach that mark.
As one analyst noted, "If they win against Sunderland they’ll be on 39 points and suddenly the gap to safety looks much smaller." Spurs received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the match‑day squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signals that De Zerbi could have an extra creative option in the final stretch.
Injuries, however, continue to plague Tottenham. Key players such as centre‑back Cristian Romero (out for the run‑in), Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and defender Ben Davies are all unavailable.
Kulusevski, arguably one of the most important attacking assets alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this season. West Ham, by comparison, enjoy a relatively clean bill of health.
Premier Injuries reports only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a much broader selection of players than De Zerbi. This depth could prove decisive in the tightly contested final weeks. Opta’s predictive model, which runs ten thousand simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, currently assigns Spurs a 58.3% probability of relegation, making them the clear favourites to go down.
West Ham’s relegation risk stands at 36.9%, while Forest’s is a modest 4.4% after they widened the gap to Spurs in 18th place. Leeds, now 15th with 39 points, are virtually safe with a 0.4% chance of dropping.
The expected points projection suggests Spurs will finish the season on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39, underscoring the fine margins that will decide their fate. In summary, the final five fixtures will be a high‑stakes marathon for both London clubs. Tottenham must overcome a series of difficult away games, resolve their injury woes, and find a way to end a historic winless run.
West Ham, while enjoying better recent form and a healthier squad, still face tough opponents and cannot afford any slip‑ups. Nottingham Forest remain in the mix but have a slightly clearer path if they can secure that one extra win. As the season draws to a close, every point will be fought for with the knowledge that the difference between staying up and going down could be measured in a single goal or a solitary moment of brilliance.