Wolves have already slipped out of the Premier League, and Burnley appear poised to join them. The real question now is which club will accompany them over the line. Leeds United and Nottingham Forest have created a comfortable buffer, sitting eight and five points clear of the relegation zone respectively.
This gap has turned the fight for survival into essentially a duel between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The Hammers and the Spurs are separated by a razor‑thin margin – just two points – occupying the 17th and 18th spots with only five matches left in the campaign.
Every fixture is becoming a potential six‑pointer, and both managers are aware that a single slip could prove fatal. West Ham might look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to widen the gap.
A win would have pushed Tottenham further down the table, but the stalemate left the situation delicately balanced. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham boss Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep the mood optimistic.
His counterpart, Tottenham’s Roberto De Zerbi, echoed the same sentiment, insisting his side can string together five consecutive victories after the recent draw with Brighton. During Monday Night Football, former player‑turned‑analyst Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have made under De Zerbi. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," he said. "They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than a single point." Despite that praise, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrying.
After a loss to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton stretched their winless run to 15 Premier League games – the longest such streak in the division. The next longest run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a win.
Breaking the 15‑match drought will be a tall order, even against a Wolves side already consigned to relegation. Carragher was blunt: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December – it’s unbelievable.
I can’t see them losing the game, but they could nick a point. However, Wolves are a tough opponent, especially with the way they set up defensively." While De Zerbi is still trying to generate momentum from a low base, Nuno has already engineered a noticeable turnaround at West Ham. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league matches, and their resurgence can be traced back to a pivotal moment in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Callum Wilson’s 93rd‑minute winner secured a 2‑1 victory for West Ham, sparking a run in which they have accumulated five wins and three defeats from 12 games – an average of 1.6 points per game, up from just 0.7 points per game earlier in the season. Nottingham Forest, although currently outside the immediate two‑way battle, have found some rhythm of their own, enjoying a five‑game unbeaten spell – their longest of the campaign – after a convincing 4‑1 triumph over Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham’s schedule appears slightly more favourable on paper. Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4.
However, venue distribution tilts the balance: West Ham will host three of their last five matches, whereas Tottenham have only two home games. The Spurs must also travel to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea – both daunting trips.
Spurs have a poor historical record at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, failing to win any of their last seven league visits. They have also lost the last five Premier League encounters with Chelsea and the last four against Aston Villa. West Ham’s away fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle, while they also welcome title‑chasing Arsenal at the London Stadium.
Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a result when his side visits West Ham on Saturday. Forest’s remaining program is arguably the toughest when league‑position strength is considered. Like Tottenham, they have three away games, including clashes with Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday trip to Sunderland.
Nevertheless, Opta’s data suggests that the safety threshold for survival may sit around 38 points. Forest, having moved to 36 points after a crucial win over Burnley, could theoretically secure safety with just one more victory.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, 'they're not far away now'," a source familiar with the calculations noted. Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signals that De Zerbi may have an extra creative option as the run‑in approaches. Injury woes, however, continue to plague the Spurs.
Cristian Romero is out for the remainder of the season, and Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably the most important attacking outlet alongside Maddison, has not featured all season, leaving De Zerbi with limited depth. West Ham, by contrast, enjoy an almost pristine fitness list. Premier Injuries reports only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader selection of players than his Tottenham rival.
Opta’s predictive model – which runs 10,000 simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points – now places Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % chance of dropping out of the Premier League, compared with West Ham’s 36.9 % probability.
Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk is a modest 4.4 %, while 15th‑placed Leeds sit at a mere 0.4 % after reaching 39 points. The expected‑points projection from Opta suggests Tottenham will finish the season on 37 points, two shy of West Ham’s projected 39. De Zerbi therefore faces a monumental task to reverse the trend and keep his club afloat.
In summary, with only five games remaining, the battle for Premier League survival has narrowed to a two‑way contest between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both clubs must capitalize on every remaining opportunity, manage their injury lists wisely, and hope that the statistical odds swing in their favour before the final whistle blows on the season.