Wolves have already slipped out of the Premier League, and Burnley appear poised to join them in the drop zone. The real question now is which other club will accompany them on the relegation ladder. Leeds United and Nottingham Forest have begun to pull away from the danger zone, sitting eight and five points clear respectively. This gap has turned the fight for survival into what looks increasingly like a direct showdown between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.
The Hammers and the Spurs are currently occupying the 17th and 18th spots, separated by a mere two points. With only five matches left in the campaign, the pressure is mounting for both sides, and every point becomes crucial.
Could West Ham regard their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to climb out of the mire? A win would have widened the gap between the two rivals, but the stalemate leaves the table in a delicate balance. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports. He tried to keep a hopeful tone, mirroring the optimism of Spurs boss Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side could win their remaining five fixtures after the recent draw with Brighton.
During Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have made under De Zerbi’s guidance. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact in terms of the performances," Carragher said.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have got more than one point out of it." Despite that commendation, the draw with Brighton extended Tottenham’s Premier League winless run to fifteen matches – more than twice as long as any other club’s streak. The next‑longest run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a victory. Ending such a protracted slump is far from guaranteed, even when they face a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher.
"They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable," he added. "I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a standing start, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around.
The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league games, and their resurgence dates back to a pivotal moment in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Callum Wilson’s 93rd‑minute strike secured a 2‑1 victory for West Ham, a win that sparked a dramatic improvement.
Since that turning point, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the division, earning five wins and three defeats from twelve matches – an average of 1.6 points per game, up from a dismal 0.7 points per game earlier in the season. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have found a brief spell of consistency, enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – after a convincing 4‑1 triumph over Burnley.
When the remaining fixtures are examined, Spurs appear to have a slightly softer schedule. Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s opponents averaging 9.4 and Forest’s at 8.4. However, the venue distribution favours the Hammers: three of their last five matches will be played at home, whereas Tottenham have only two home games left. Tottenham’s itinerary includes daunting away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea.
The Spurs have never won at Stamford Bridge in their last seven league encounters, and they have lost their previous five meetings with Chelsea and the last four against Villa. West Ham’s away fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle, but they also have to host title‑challenging Arsenal. Everton’s manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest’s schedule is arguably the toughest of the three, based on opponent league positions.
Like Tottenham, they have three away games remaining, with visits to Chelsea and Manchester United following a Friday trip to Sunderland. Nevertheless, the survival threshold is often quoted around 38 points. According to Opta’s statistical model, Forest may be just one win away from safety, having moved to 36 points after Sunday’s crucial victory over Burnley.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a club insider suggested. Spurs received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the match‑day squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could be involved before the season ends. Injury concerns, however, continue to plague Tottenham.
Cristian Romero was ruled out for the run‑in after the defeat at Sunderland, and other key players such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Spurs’ most creative outlets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season.
By contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries reports that the only sidelined player is third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański, giving Nuno a far broader selection of options than De Zerbi. Opta’s predictive table, which runs thousands of simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, now lists Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation.
The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out of the Premier League, considerably higher than West Ham’s 36.9 % chance. Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk sits at a modest 4.4 %, while 15th‑placed Leeds United are virtually safe with a 0.4 % probability after reaching 39 points.
The expected‑points model from Opta projects Spurs finishing on 37 points, two points shy of West Ham’s projected 39. De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to reverse the trend and keep his side up. In summary, the battle for survival has narrowed to a two‑way contest between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United. Both clubs possess a mixture of recent form, fixture difficulty, and injury circumstances that could swing the final outcome.
With just five games left, every decision, every substitution, and every moment of concentration will be magnified. The clubs, their managers, and their supporters will be watching intently, aware that the difference between staying in the Premier League and facing the drop could be decided by a single goal or a single point in the coming weeks.