Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which of the remaining clubs will be the next to go down. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the race for safety is increasingly shaping up as a direct duel between the two London sides, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both clubs are currently locked together in the table, separated by a mere two points, occupying the 17th and 18th positions respectively. With only five matches left in the campaign, the threat of relegation looms larger than ever for each side.
West Ham may look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull clear. A win would have pushed Spurs further away from safety, but the stalemate left the situation delicately balanced. "It will be a fight right up to the final whistle," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep a hopeful tone. His counterpart, Spurs boss Roberto De Zerbi, echoed the sentiment, insisting his side can string together five consecutive victories after the recent draw with Brighton.
On Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the improvement Spurs have shown under De Zerbi’s guidance. "There’s no doubt the Italian has made a difference in the way they perform," Carragher said. "They played very well over the weekend and deserved more than a single point." Despite that optimism, Spurs have now gone 15 Premier League games without a win – a run more than twice as long as any other club’s current drought.
The next‑longest unbeaten streak belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have managed seven games without defeat. Breaking the winless spell will be a tall order, even against a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher. "They haven’t won a league game since December – it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing, but they could certainly nick a point.
The Wolves set‑up makes it difficult for any visiting team." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a low base, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league fixtures, and their resurgence began in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium when Callum Wilson struck in the 93rd minute to secure a 2‑1 victory.
Since that dramatic win, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the division, earning five wins and three defeats from twelve games – an average of 1.6 points per match, up from just 0.7 points per game earlier in the season. Forest, meanwhile, are enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – following a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Spurs appear to have the easier path: their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4.
However, the venue distribution favours the Hammers. West Ham will play three of their last five matches at home, while Tottenham have only two home games left and must travel to both fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. Spurs have never won at Stamford Bridge in their last seven league outings, have lost five consecutive games to Chelsea, and have dropped points in their last four meetings with Villa.
West Ham’s schedule is not without challenges either. Their away trips include fixtures at Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also host Arsenal, who are still chasing the title. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday.
Forest faces the toughest set of opponents based on league position. Like Spurs, they have three away games remaining, with trips to Chelsea and Manchester United following a Friday clash with Sunderland.
Yet, given that Opta estimates the safety threshold at around 38 points, Forest may need only one more win after moving to 36 points with their recent triumph over Burnley. "If they win against Sunderland, they’ll be on 39 points and suddenly the gap to safety looks much smaller," a club insider noted. Spurs received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury.
Although he remained an unused substitute, his presence suggested he could feature before the campaign ends. Injuries, however, continue to plague Tottenham. Cristian Romero is out for the run‑in, and other key figures such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably the most important attacking asset alongside Maddison, has not featured all season.
In contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader selection of players than De Zerbi, who must cope with a depleted roster.
Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Spurs as the clear favourites for relegation. The model assigns Tottenham a 58.3% chance of dropping out, compared with West Ham’s 36.9% probability. Forest’s relegation risk sits at a modest 4.4%, while Leeds, now on 39 points, are virtually safe with a 0.4% chance of going down. According to Opta’s expected points forecast, Tottenham are projected to finish the season on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s anticipated 39.
De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to reverse the trend and keep his club in the top flight. The final stretch of the Premier League will be a high‑stakes sprint, with every point carrying the weight of survival.
Both London clubs must summon their best performances, manage injuries wisely, and perhaps benefit from a bit of luck to avoid the drop. The battle is truly a two‑way fight, and the outcome will be decided in the next five games.