Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which club will accompany them to the Championship. With Leeds United and Nottingham Forest sitting comfortably eight and five points above the relegation zone, the fight for survival seems to have narrowed to a direct showdown between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. At the moment the Hammers sit in 17th place while Spurs occupy 18th, a gap of just two points with only five matches left in the campaign.
Both sides are feeling the pressure of the drop‑zone and every point becomes crucial. West Ham’s goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday could be viewed as a missed chance to pull ahead; a win would have left Tottenham trailing further behind.
Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, and the final stretch of fixtures will decide who stays up. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, echoing the optimism of his Tottenham counterpart Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side can win their remaining five games after a 1‑1 stalemate with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Tottenham have shown under De Zerbi, noting that the Italian coach has already made a noticeable impact on the team’s performances. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact in terms of the performances," Carragher said.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have got more than one point out of it." Despite that praise, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrying. After a loss to Sunderland at the start of the season, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to fifteen games – more than double the length of any other club’s drought. The next longest run without a victory belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a win. Breaking the fifteen‑game run will be a tall order, even against a side that has already been relegated, such as Wolves, who host Tottenham on Saturday.
Carragher was blunt: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." Spurs are therefore trying to build momentum from a very low base, whereas Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around. The Hammers have lost just one of their last five league games, and their resurgence began in January when Callum Wilson scored a dramatic 93rd‑minute winner at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to secure a 2‑1 victory. Since that turning point, West Ham have compiled the sixth‑best record in the division, earning five wins and three defeats from twelve matches – an average of 1.6 points per game, up sharply from the 0.7 points per game they managed earlier in the season.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest, who are currently outside the immediate relegation battle, enjoy a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham appear to have the softer schedule. Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s opponents averaging 9.4 and Forest’s averaging 8.4. However, the venue distribution favours the Hammers: three of their last five games are at home, while Tottenham have only two home fixtures.
Tottenham’s itinerary includes daunting away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea, clubs that have proved difficult for them historically. Spurs have not won any of their last seven Premier League encounters at Stamford Bridge, have lost their previous five meetings with Chelsea, and have dropped points in each of their last four games against Aston Villa.
West Ham’s road fixtures are not without challenge either. They travel to Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also host title‑chasing Arsenal at the London Stadium.
Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits West Ham on Saturday. Forest, on the other hand, face the toughest set of opponents based on league positions, with away trips to Chelsea and Manchester United following a Friday visit to Sunderland. Yet, given the survival threshold is often cited around 38 points, Forest could be just one win away from safety after moving to 36 points with their recent win over Burnley.
As one commentator noted, "If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now.’" Spurs received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the match‑day squad for the first time this season after a long knee injury layoff. Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that De Zerbi may have an extra creative option in the final weeks.
Injuries, however, continue to plague Tottenham. Key figures such as centre‑back Cristian Romero have been ruled out for the run‑in, while Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and defender Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Spurs’ most potent attacking outlets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season.
By contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. According to Premier Injuries, the only sidelined player is third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański, giving Nuno a much broader selection of fit personnel than De Zerbi. This depth could prove decisive as the season draws to a close.
Statistical models from Opta reinforce the narrative that Tottenham are now the favourites for relegation. Their predictive table, which runs 10,000 simulations and incorporates hundreds of thousands of data points, assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out, compared with West Ham’s 36.9 % chance.
Nottingham Forest’s odds sit at a modest 4.4 %, while Leeds United, now on 39 points, have a relegation risk of just 0.4 %. Opta’s expected points model projects Spurs finishing on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39. This suggests that De Zerbi faces a steep uphill battle to reverse the odds, while Nuno’s side may need only a couple of points from the remaining fixtures to secure safety.
In summary, the Premier League’s relegation battle has effectively become a two‑way contest between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United. Both clubs are separated by a narrow margin, both have a mix of challenging and favourable fixtures, and both are dealing with differing injury situations. With just five games left, every decision, every substitution, and every moment of concentration could determine which of the two London clubs will join Wolves and Burnley in the Championship, and which will breathe a sigh of relief and remain in the top flight for another season.