Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with insight to highlight the Premier League stories that matter. This week’s focus revolves around three key topics: the possibility of Arsenal outgunning Manchester City, Newcastle United's blunt attacking approach after the Isak era, and a player worth keeping an eye on over the weekend. Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that Manchester City’s priority in the title race against Arsenal is simply to collect points, not to chase goal difference. "It’s all about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs currently separated only by the number of goals they have scored, the margin could become a decisive factor if the race tightens. City’s narrow 1-0 victory over Burnley, which briefly put them back on top of the table, gave Arsenal a glimmer of hope.
Mikel Arteta’s side must win their matches, but a single win may not be sufficient if City continues to edge them on the scoring front. The recent result could have been far more damaging for the Gunners, so there is still reason for cautious optimism.
Guardiola also reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not just an offensive task. "You have to score and you have to keep a clean sheet – it’s a two‑way street," he explained to Sky Sports. For Arsenal, the bigger question is whether they can lift the quality and quantity of their attacking output.
### Arsenal’s Current Goal‑Scoring Landscape Arteta can point out that Arsenal trail City by only three goals in the season’s tally – a gap that feels relatively small, especially when you consider the Gunners’ exceptional record from set‑pieces. Arsenal have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. However, that advantage has started to fade. After a promising start to March, when Arsenal scored twice from corners in a win over Chelsea, they have managed just one set‑piece goal in the last four league games.
Reviving that dead‑ball efficiency will be crucial in the final stretch. The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play chances.
In the recent Etihad clash, Arsenal actually produced a higher total of open‑play expected goals (xG) than City – 1.32 compared with City’s 0.98. This suggests that, despite the loss, the Gunners are creating quality opportunities when they attack. ### The Role of Kai Havertz Kai Havertz’s return to the Arsenal front line was a turning point. He missed several matches earlier in the season due to injury, but his re‑introduction as the No 9 gave the team a new focal point.
Havertz’s ability to hold up the ball, draw defenders, and link play helped Arsenal push higher up the pitch and threaten City’s box more consistently. In that Etihad encounter, Havertz recorded five shots – the most by any opposition striker at the stadium this season. While he only managed one goal, his overall contribution in terms of movement and creating space was evident.
The match also marked only his second Premier League start as a striker this campaign, underscoring how his form could be pivotal if he stays fit. ### Creative Sparks: Ødegaard, Eze and Saka Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator in the game, providing more chances than any other player. His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a substitution, lifted Arsenal’s technical level in the final third. Maintaining the fitness of these key figures, along with Bukayo Saka – who Arteta expects to return from injury for the upcoming Newcastle clash – will be essential.
It is noteworthy that Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka have not started a Premier League match together since Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024, almost 18 months ago. Historical data shows that Arsenal’s attacking output is markedly better when all three are on the pitch.
With them, the team averages 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces per game, identical to when they are absent, indicating a stable dead‑ball threat. However, open‑play expected goals jump from 1.11 to 1.47 when the trio starts together, highlighting their collective impact on creativity.
### The Challenge of Consistency Even if Arteta manages to field the trio regularly, there are no guarantees of immediate success. Saka has found the net only twice in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has scored once in his last 21.
Their supporting cast must also step up – Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has failed to score in his last 13 outings. Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, most of which have come against lower‑half opposition. His knack for finding the net against weaker teams could prove valuable in the final fixtures. ### Motivational Signals Arsenal’s players appear aware of the goal‑difference battle.
Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals’, because we know it will be tight." Such a mindset suggests the squad is prepared to push for additional goals when the situation allows. ### The Wider Context: Newcastle’s Struggles While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle United faces a different set of problems under Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game – their lowest since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
Currently sitting 14th after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, their offensive rebuild has not delivered the expected returns. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league appearances between them.
Howe is now considering giving Denmark U21 international William Osula a starting role as the primary striker. Osula has shown promise, scoring in back‑to‑back games, but Newcastle’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, far short of the numbers required to challenge for European spots. ### Upcoming Fixtures and Broadcast Information The upcoming weekend promises plenty of action: Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for a Friday Night Football clash, while Arsenal and Newcastle meet in the Saturday Night Football slot, with coverage beginning at 5 pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
On Monday Night Football, Manchester United face Brentford, with kickoff at 8 pm and coverage starting at 6.30 pm on Sky Sports. ### Final Thoughts Arteta’s side possesses a blend of set‑piece proficiency, emerging open‑play creativity, and a growing belief that they can add to their goal tally when needed. If the trio of Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka can stay fit and rediscover their scoring touch, Arsenal could indeed outgun Manchester City in the final stages of the title race.
The next five fixtures will be decisive, and the Gunners have the tools to make a serious push for the championship.