Welcome to The Debrief, Sky Sports' analytical column where Adam Bate mixes hard‑data insights with his own viewpoints to dissect the most compelling narratives from the latest round of Premier League fixtures. This week’s focus spans a range of stories, from the continuing struggles at Stamford Bridge to the uneven performances of other contenders. Earlier in the month, former manager Liam Rosenior reminded everyone that, despite the constant chatter surrounding his tenure at Chelsea, his side had occupied the league’s fourth spot when he first took the helm. If he has not been keeping a close eye on the table lately, he would be shocked to learn that his tenure now finds the Blues hovering around ninth place—a clear drop from the optimism that greeted his arrival.
Chelsea’s most recent loss to Manchester United marked a fourth successive defeat, with three of those setbacks occurring on home turf. The club’s recent run of three straight Premier League defeats at Stamford Bridge even includes a historic loss to Oldham, a match that featured Tony Cascarino in the Chelsea front line. These results underline a period of unusual instability for a side that, on paper, should be competing for the upper echelons of the table.
Rosenior’s public defence of his record has become something of a trademark; he has consistently argued that the defeat to United was undeserved. In his words: "They had one chance on our goal when we were reduced to ten men after an injury, they took it and scored, then we suffered wave after wave of attacks, crosses into the box, moments we failed to convert.
I think we hit the woodwork four or five times." He added, "I won’t lie – I can’t comment on things I haven’t seen. I witnessed a team that were dominant from the first minute to the last, but we need to manage those moments better. That’s what is costing us points right now." There is a grain of truth in Rosenior’s assessment.
Opta’s data, however, indicates that only three of Chelsea’s attempts actually struck the frame of the net. The club’s finishing record has been abysmal: since mid‑March, Chelsea are the sole Premier League side that have failed to find the back of the net, despite generating the highest number of shots in the competition. Such a statistic is striking, yet context matters.
Manchester United enjoyed the clearer opening of the encounter, while Chelsea’s numerous chances have often been of a lower quality. Over the past ten fixtures, only Wolverhampton Wanderers have registered a lower expected‑goals‑per‑shot ratio than the Blues.
Penetrating the penalty area has become a persistent problem, meaning that even when Chelsea dominate possession, the chances they create are rarely threatening. The issue may be stylistic, but it also raises questions about the personnel on the pitch. It is hardly a coincidence that United’s Matheus Cunha, a Brazilian who has consistently out‑performed his xG, provided the decisive finish. Every Chelsea attacker who featured on Saturday has, over the course of his Premier League career, under‑delivered relative to his expected‑goals metric.
Football often hinges on fine margins, and it would be unreasonable to suggest that Chelsea will never score again. Yet, on a weekend when prolific marksmen like Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah were the decisive factors for their respective sides, the Blues’ misfortune in front of goal seems to be baked into the current model. Switching focus, Jamie Carragher’s pre‑match analysis of Florian Wirtz ahead of the Merseyside derby highlighted the German’s statistical output: four goals and three assists, which Carragher described as “neat and tidy, not really hurting the opposition in terms of getting assists and scoring goals.” He also praised the size and quality of the pitch, suggesting it should be a stage where Wirtz could dominate.
Although Liverpool eventually clinched a late winner through Virgil van Dijk, the narrative around Wirtz remained mixed. Post‑match data underscored why Liverpool’s £116 million acquisition from Bayer Leverkusen remains a challenging asset to evaluate. Wirtz ranks second in the league, behind only Bruno Fernandes, for open‑play chances created.
However, a closer look at those four assists reveals a reverse pass to Cody Gakpo that went nowhere, a soft ball to Alexander Isak that resulted in a routine save, and two other simple passes that led to speculative shots. The eye test told a different story. Wirtz struggled to retain possession in a high‑tempo contest, was out‑muscled by opponents, and failed to impose himself as many had hoped.
He recorded a single successful dribble and did not register a shot on target. Nonetheless, his work rate is commendable; he currently sits fourth in the league for total runs, despite playing fewer minutes than the three men ahead of him. What has been missing, according to Carragher, is the boldness that characterises emerging stars like Rayan Cherki at Manchester City.
Wirtz, a former leader at Leverkusen, has yet to assume a similar role at Liverpool. His long‑term contract provides a window for development, but patience has limits. "He is in a new league, new manager, new system," Carragher noted, "but we are ten months in now. We need to see a lot more." Turning to the north, Newcastle United continue to exhibit the high‑intensity style that has defined Eddie Howe’s tenure.
They rank second in the league for sprints and have been among the top five in that metric across all five of Howe’s seasons. However, that relentless approach is now exposing vulnerabilities. Newcastle’s defensive solidity has begun to wobble. In a recent 2‑1 defeat to Bournemouth, the Magpies were never fully in control, and the opposition exploited the spaces left by a slower press and a back line that failed to push up.
Howe defended the margins, yet Andoni Iraola’s side produced superior chances and an expected‑goals total of 2.99 – the highest Newcastle have conceded this season, just edging the previous week’s tally against Crystal Palace. Since the end of January, Newcastle’s expected‑goals‑against figure has been worse than every club except bottom‑placed Wolves. Their defensive frailties are most evident at home: the Magpies have now lost five of their last six Premier League matches at St James’ Park, a tally that matches the total number of home defeats they suffered across the entire previous season. A porous Newcastle defense reflects poorly on Howe, whose reputation has taken a hit.
Even the often‑criticised Steve Bruce never saw his side sink as low in the table as Newcastle currently sit. Selection choices are under the microscope, especially given Howe’s involvement in recruitment. Players like Yoane Wissa have contributed minimally, Anthony Elanga has been disappointing again, and Nick Woltemade has become a problem that needs solving. In summary, both Chelsea and Newcastle are grappling with deeper issues than mere bad luck.
For Chelsea, it is a combination of low‑quality chances and an under‑performing attacking roster, while Newcastle must address a defensive structure that is no longer as airtight as it once was. As the season progresses, the ability of their respective managers to adapt and find solutions will be the decisive factor in whether these clubs can reverse their current trajectories.