Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League, and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which club will accompany them to the Championship. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the bottom three and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the relegation scrap is shaping up as a direct contest between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both sides are currently occupying the 17th and 18th positions, separated by a mere two points, and with only five matches left in the campaign the pressure is mounting for each club to secure the points they need.
West Ham might look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull clear; a win would have pushed Spurs further down the table. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced.
"It will be a fight right up to the final whistle," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, echoing the optimism of his Tottenham counterpart Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side can win the remaining five fixtures after the recent stalemate with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have shown under De Zerbi, noting that the Italian coach has already made a noticeable impact on the team's performances.
"They played very well over the weekend and deserved more than a single point," Carragher said. Despite the praise, Spurs have yet to break a miserable run of 15 Premier League games without a victory – a streak more than double that of any other club. The next‑longest unbeaten run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have managed seven games without defeat. Ending the winless spell will be a tall order, even against a Wolves side already consigned to relegation, according to Carragher: "They haven't won a league game since December – it's unbelievable.
I can't see them losing, but they could also pick up a point. The Wolves set‑up is tough for any visiting side." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from scratch, Nuno has already turned West Ham's fortunes around.
The Hammers have lost just one of their last five league games, and the change can be traced back to a dramatic win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January, when Callum Wilson scored a 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 victory. Since that moment, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the division, achieving five wins and three defeats from 12 matches, raising their points‑per‑game average from 0.7 to 1.6. Forest, for their part, are enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a convincing 4‑1 triumph over Burnley.
When the remaining fixtures are examined, Spurs appear to have the softer schedule: the average league position of their final five opponents is 11th, compared with 9.4 for West Ham and 8.4 for Forest. However, the venue distribution favours the Hammers, who will host three of those games, whereas Tottenham will only enjoy two home fixtures. Tottenham's itinerary includes daunting away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea, clubs that have historically been difficult for them. Spurs have not won any of their last seven league games at Stamford Bridge, and they have lost their previous five meetings with Chelsea as well as their last four encounters with Villa.
West Ham's road is not without challenges either. Their away fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also host title‑chasing Arsenal at the London Stadium. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits on Saturday. Forest face the toughest set of opponents based on league positions, with three away games that include trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland.
Opta's data suggests that 38 points could be enough to guarantee safety, meaning Forest might need just one more win after their recent 36‑point haul to reach that benchmark. "If they beat Sunderland they would move to 39 points and suddenly they'd be in a much better position," a source noted.
Spurs received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the match‑day squad for the first time this season after a lengthy knee injury. Although he remained an unused substitute, his presence signalled that he could feature again before the season ends. Injuries, however, continue to plague Tottenham.
Cristian Romero was ruled out for the final stretch after the Sunderland defeat, and other key players such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Spurs' most creative outlets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season.
By contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader selection of personnel than De Zerbi enjoys.
This depth could prove decisive in the crunch games ahead. Opta's predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, places Tottenham as the clear underdogs for survival.
The model assigns Spurs a 58.3% chance of relegation, compared with West Ham's 36.9% probability. Forest's odds sit at a modest 4.4%, while Leeds, now on 39 points, have a negligible 0.4% chance of dropping down. According to Opta's expected points forecast, Spurs are projected to finish with 37 points, two fewer than West Ham's expected 39. De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to reverse the trend and keep his side afloat.
In summary, with only five games remaining, the battle for Premier League survival has narrowed to a two‑way fight between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United. Both clubs possess the talent and managerial acumen to scrape out the points they need, but injuries, fixture difficulty, and recent form will heavily influence the final outcome. The next few weeks will decide which London club remains in the top flight and which will join Wolves and Burnley in the Championship.