Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to follow, leaving the question of which club will join them at the bottom. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points clear, the fight for survival is increasingly being reduced to a two‑team showdown between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The two London clubs are currently occupying the 17th and 18th spots, separated by a mere two points, and with only five matches left in the campaign the pressure is mounting on both sides.
West Ham's goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday could be seen in hindsight as a missed chance to widen the gap; a win would have pushed Tottenham further away from safety. Instead, the situation remains finely balanced, with both teams still within striking distance of each other.
"It will be a battle right up to the final whistle," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports. He tried to keep the mood upbeat, a sentiment echoed by Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side could still win their remaining five fixtures after the recent stalemate with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Tottenham have made under De Zerbi. "There is no doubt the Italian has had a positive impact on the performances," Carragher said.
"They played very well over the weekend and deserved more than a single point." While Tottenham have yet to break a dismal run of 15 Premier League games without a win – the longest winless streak in the division, with Burnley's seven‑game run the next longest – West Ham have managed to turn their fortunes around under Nuno. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league matches, and their resurgence began in January when Callum Wilson scored a dramatic 93rd‑minute winner at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, securing a 2‑1 victory. Since that moment, West Ham have accumulated five wins and three defeats from 12 games, improving their points‑per‑game ratio from 0.7 to 1.6. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have enjoyed a five‑match unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley.
However, the Forest’s schedule is arguably the toughest of the three clubs when the average league positions of their remaining opponents are considered. Their final five foes average a position of 8.4, compared with 9.4 for West Ham and 11.0 for Tottenham. Home advantage also plays a role. West Ham will host three of their last five games, while Tottenham have only two home fixtures left.
The Spurs’ remaining itinerary includes challenging away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. Tottenham have not won any of their last seven Premier League encounters at Stamford Bridge, have lost their last five meetings with Chelsea, and have dropped points in their most recent four games against Aston Villa. West Ham’s road fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle United, and they will also welcome title‑chasing Arsenal to the London Stadium.
Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits West Ham on Saturday, adding another layer of difficulty to the Hammers’ final stretch. Forest’s schedule is similarly demanding, with three away games that include trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday clash with Sunderland. Nevertheless, according to Opta’s statistical model, the safety threshold this season could be as low as 38 points.
Forest, now on 36 points after their crucial win over Burnley, may need just a single victory to move above that mark. "If they win against Sunderland they’ll reach 39 points and suddenly the gap to safety looks much smaller," a pundit noted.
Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time since his knee injury, although he remained an unused substitute. His presence suggests he could feature in the closing weeks if fitness permits. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs.
Cristian Romero is out for the run‑in after the defeat to Sunderland, and other key players such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, in particular, has been a vital attacking outlet when fit, and his absence has limited De Zerbi’s options.
By contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries reports only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a much broader selection pool than De Zerbi. This disparity in squad availability could prove decisive in the final matches. Opta’s predictive table, which runs 10,000 simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, now lists Tottenham as the favourites for relegation.
The model assigns Spurs a 58.3% chance of dropping out of the Premier League, compared with a 36.9% probability for West Ham. Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk is a modest 4.4%, while Leeds United, now on 39 points, have an almost negligible 0.4% chance of going down.
The expected‑points model from Opta forecasts Tottenham finishing on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39. This leaves De Zerbi with a daunting task to reverse the trend and secure survival for his side. In summary, the battle for Premier League survival has narrowed to a two‑way contest between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United. Both clubs are separated by only a couple of points, both face a mix of tough away fixtures and limited home games, and both must navigate injury concerns as they approach the final stretch.
With the odds favoring West Ham but the margin so slim, every point earned or dropped in the remaining five matches will be crucial in determining which of the two London rivals remains in the top flight and which joins Wolves and Burnley at the other end of the table.