Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League, and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which other club will be the third to go down. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the fight for safety seems to have narrowed to a two‑team showdown between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.
The two London clubs are currently separated by a mere two points, occupying the 17th and 18th positions respectively, and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of slipping into the drop zone is growing for both sides. West Ham will likely look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull away; a win would have left Spurs further behind. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep a positive tone.
His counterpart at Tottenham, Roberto De Zerbi, echoed the optimism, insisting his side can win their final five games after the recent stalemate with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have made under the Italian coach. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," he said.
"They played very well over the weekend and should have taken more than a single point." Despite that encouragement, the draw with Brighton extended Tottenham’s Premier League winless streak to 15 games – more than twice as long as any other club’s run. The next‑longest drought belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a victory. Ending the Spurs’ barren run is far from guaranteed, even against a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher.
"They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable," he added. "I can’t see them losing the game, but they could nick a point – it’s always tricky at Wolves given how they set themselves up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from scratch, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around.
The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league fixtures, and their improvement stretches back further. The turning point arrived in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson struck in the 93rd minute to secure a 2‑1 victory for West Ham. Since that dramatic win, the club has posted the sixth‑best record in the division, amassing five wins and three defeats from 12 games – an average of 1.6 points per match, up from 0.7 points per game earlier in the season.
Forest, meanwhile, are enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – after a 4‑1 triumph over Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Spurs appear to have the softer schedule: their final five opponents hold an average league position of 11, compared with 9.4 for West Ham and 8.4 for Nottingham Forest. However, home‑away balance favours the Hammers, who will play three of their last five games at the London Stadium, while Tottenham only have two home fixtures left.
The Spurs’ remaining itinerary includes daunting trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. Tottenham have not won any of their last seven Premier League encounters at Stamford Bridge, have lost their last five meetings with Chelsea, and have also been beaten in their last four games against Villa.
West Ham’s road fixtures are not a cakewalk either. They travel to Brentford and Newcastle, and must also host title‑challengers Arsenal. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday.
Forest face the toughest opposition based on opponent league positions, with three away games that include clashes against Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday trip to Sunderland. Yet, with the safety threshold often quoted at 38 points, the Reds could be just one win away from safety, having moved to 36 points after Sunday’s crucial win over Burnley. "If they win against Sunderland, they’ll reach 39 points and the gap closes dramatically," a Forest insider noted.
Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute, his presence suggested he could feature before the campaign ends. Injuries, however, continue to plague Spurs. Cristian Romero was ruled out for the run‑in after the Sunderland defeat, and other key players such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable.
Kulusevski, arguably one of Tottenham’s most important attacking assets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season. In contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a much broader selection pool than De Zerbi, who must cope with a depleted squad. Opta’s predictive model, which runs tens of thousands of simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation.
The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out, compared with a 36.9 % chance for West Ham. Forest’s relegation risk sits at a modest 4.4 %, while 15th‑placed Leeds enjoy near‑certainty of safety with a 0.4 % chance of going down after reaching 39 points. According to Opta’s expected points projection, Tottenham are forecast to finish on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39.
De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to reverse the trend and keep his side afloat. The final stretch of the season promises high drama, with every point potentially decisive for the clubs battling to avoid the drop. Fans of both London sides will be watching closely as the Premier League’s relegation battle reaches its climax.