Arsenal's Creative Struggles in Open Play: A Potential Title Decider

This week in The Debrief, a Sky Sports column, Adam Bate analyzes the key stories from the latest Premier League matches, utilizing a combination of data and opinion. A recent dismal weekend for Arsenal in the Premier League has raised concerns; their home defeat to Bournemouth, coupled with Manchester City's win at Chelsea, has put the title back in the balance. However, it was Arsenal's performance that was particularly alarming, with the team struggling to create scoring opportunities from open play, relying heavily on set-pieces. The Gunners' expected goals total from open play was a mere 0.18, reflecting their lack of creativity. While Mikel Arteta's team has excelled at set-plays, overemphasizing this aspect of their game can hinder their momentum. The focus on set-plays has been a recurring theme throughout the campaign, but this approach can have an opportunity cost, as sending defenders up for each foul won in the middle of the field can disrupt the team's flow. In their recent match, 26 minutes and 48 seconds were spent with the ball dead, including six minutes preparing for corners and seven minutes waiting for throw-ins. Perhaps Arsenal is aware of their strengths, as this formula has taken them to the top of the Premier League table. However, it has resulted in a disjointed game, and this is not an isolated incident, as Arsenal frequently struggles to create from open play. In fact, among the top-six teams in the Premier League, they have had more matches with an open-play expected goals total of 0.3 or lower than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea combined. This is unusual for a Premier League leader, as the eventual winners typically rank among the top two for open-play creativity. Arsenal's lack of fluency might be explained by their reliance on set-pieces, whereas Manchester City appears capable of going on a run. Meanwhile, West Ham's 4-0 win over Wolves has moved them out of the relegation zone, thanks in part to Jarrod Bowen's two assists. Despite a difficult campaign, Bowen has maintained his output, with eight assists and eight goals in the Premier League this season. Since signing for West Ham in January 2020, he ranks among the top half a dozen players in the Premier League for goal involvements. Bowen's consistency is highlighted by the fact that only two other players, Mohamed Salah and Bruno Fernandes, have registered more than 10 goal involvements in each of the past six seasons. If Bowen can finish the season strongly, he may join an exclusive club, as Erling Haaland is the only player to have achieved 20 goal involvements in each of the last three Premier League seasons. West Ham's chances of staying up were further boosted by Tottenham's 1-0 defeat to Sunderland, with Brian Brobbey impressing as a striker. According to statistics, Brobbey is one of the best players in the Premier League at holding the ball up, with a success rate of retaining possession after receiving the ball that is higher than anyone else near the top of the list.