Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column where Adam Bate analyzes the latest Premier League matches using data and opinion. This week, he examines Chelsea's struggles under Liam Rosenior, who recently highlighted the team's fourth-place ranking in the Premier League table since his takeover. However, their current ninth-place position tells a different story.
The team's four consecutive defeats, including three at home, have raised concerns among supporters. Rosenior attributes the loss to Manchester United to bad luck, citing the team's dominance and numerous scoring opportunities.
Although Chelsea's finishing has been poor, with the team failing to score despite having the most shots since mid-March, their chances have been of lower quality. The team's inability to penetrate the penalty box and create high-quality scoring opportunities has been a recurring issue. This problem may be attributed to the team's style of play or the personnel. The defeat to Manchester United, where Matheus Cunha's crisp finish decided the game, highlights the difference in quality between the two teams.
Chelsea's attacking players have underperformed in terms of expected goals, whereas Cunha has overperformed throughout his Premier League career. The team's bad luck in front of goal may be a result of their model.
Meanwhile, Jamie Carragher criticized Florian Wirtz's performance before the Merseyside derby, describing his haul of four goals and three assists as 'neat and tidy' but not impactful. Wirtz's statistics show that he has created the most open-play chances in the Premier League, but his performance against Liverpool was underwhelming. He struggled to retain possession and was outmuscled, failing to impose himself on the game.
Wirtz's talent and work rate are undeniable, but he has yet to show the swagger and appetite for risk-taking that is expected of him. His long-term contract and obvious talent buy him time, but patience is wearing thin.
Newcastle, on the other hand, are still playing with intensity, ranking second in the Premier League for sprints. However, this approach is leaving gaps, and their defense is struggling to keep up. The team's 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth highlighted their vulnerabilities, with the opposition having better chances and a higher expected-goals total.
Since the end of January, Newcastle's expected goals against has been worse than every team in the Premier League except Wolves. Their home form is alarming, with five losses in their last six Premier League games at St James' Park. The team's leaky defense and poor home record have put manager Eddie Howe under scrutiny, with his selection decisions and role in recruitment being questioned.