Chelsea's Misfortune: More Than Just Bad Luck

Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column where Adam Bate combines data and opinion to reflect on key Premier League stories. This week, a closer look at Chelsea's struggles under Liam Rosenior, Liverpool's assessment of Florian Wirtz, and Newcastle's defensive woes. Rosenior recently pointed out that Chelsea ranked fourth in the Premier League table since he took over, but their current ninth-place standing tells a different story. The team's four consecutive defeats, including three at home, have raised concerns about their performance. Rosenior attributed their loss to Manchester United to bad luck, citing the team's dominance and numerous missed opportunities. However, statistics show that Chelsea's finishing has been poor, with the team failing to score despite having the most shots since mid-March. This trend is not just a matter of bad luck, as the team's chances have been of lower quality, and they have struggled to penetrate the penalty box. The potential consequences of this style of play, combined with the team's personnel, are worrying. Perhaps it's not a coincidence that United's Matheus Cunha found the decisive finish, given his history of overperforming his expected goals. In contrast, Chelsea's attacking players have underperformed their expected goals throughout their careers. Meanwhile, Liverpool's Florian Wirtz has been under scrutiny, with Jamie Carragher describing his performance as 'neat and tidy' but not impactful. Wirtz's statistics show that he has created numerous chances, but the quality of those chances has been questionable. His inability to retain possession and impose himself on the game has been a concern. Newcastle, on the other hand, are still playing with intensity, ranking second in the Premier League for sprints. However, this approach has left gaps in their defense, which has become a problem. The team's expected goals against has been worse than every team in the Premier League bar bottom-club Wolves since the end of January. Their home form has been alarming, with five losses in their last six Premier League games at St James' Park. As a result, manager Eddie Howe is under pressure to find answers, particularly in the top end of the pitch.