Is Chelsea's Progress Stalling Under Rosenior's Leadership?

Despite Liam Rosenior's initial optimism, pointing out Chelsea's fourth-place position in the Premier League table prior to their encounter with Manchester City, the team's recent performance has raised concerns. A three-goal defeat at Stamford Bridge led to a five-place drop to ninth in their 11 games under Rosenior, with a third consecutive Premier League loss without scoring, increasing pressure ahead of their match against Manchester United. This, combined with their 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, has resulted in five losses from six games across all competitions, making their pursuit of a top-five finish increasingly challenging. Rosenior's tenure began positively, with Chelsea winning their first four Premier League games under his leadership against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham, and Wolves. However, they have only secured one win in their subsequent seven games. The team's unbeaten start to the Premier League was ended by Arsenal on March 1, and the Gunners also defeated them in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi-final. The significant gap between Chelsea and top-tier teams was further emphasized by their losses to PSG and Manchester City. Paul Merson of Sky Sports noted, 'Rosenior started well, but when Chelsea face the big teams, they get beaten up.' While Rosenior has achieved impressive victories away to Napoli and Aston Villa, the recent Manchester City loss has led to supporter pessimism ahead of Manchester United's visit. Rosenior was tasked with getting Chelsea back on track following a tumultuous end to Enzo Maresca's tenure, but his record, three months in, is strikingly similar. Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior, a slight increase from 1.48 per game previously this season, but still the third-lowest average for a Chelsea manager since 2004. This average is significantly lower than what is required to secure a Champions League spot. If Chelsea maintain this rate in their remaining fixtures, they would finish with just 57 points, only five points higher than Liverpool's current total. The trajectory of their form suggests that even this might be unattainable unless their under-fire head coach can achieve dramatically improved results in the coming week. Rosenior reminded fans that even Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to 'sort things out' at Manchester City and Liverpool, respectively. As a 41-year-old coach only 11 Premier League games into his reign, having taken the job mid-season in difficult circumstances, he is not responsible for the recruitment that has left the team with a squad lacking experience and leadership. He is also dealing with the consequences of the high volume of football they played after reaching the Club World Cup final last summer. However, fans still expect more from the team. Chelsea's mental fragility is not new, having lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca in the first half of the season. But the issue has become more pronounced under Rosenior, with the team struggling to recover from surrendering leads against Leeds and Burnley in consecutive games in February. Sunday's loss to Manchester City followed similar collapses against PSG and Everton. Rosenior has been unable to address Chelsea's issues with ill-discipline, with red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive games against Burnley and Arsenal proving costly. Since Rosenior's first Premier League game in charge in January, Chelsea have received more cards than any other side. The head coach is not accountable for the comments leading to Enzo Fernandez's internal two-game suspension, but it is another example of a player stepping out of line. With only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea are four points behind Liverpool, and their outlook for securing a Champions League finish does not look promising. Based on their second-half collapse against Manchester City, Chelsea might soon have to focus on their position in the Premier League table. However, there is some encouragement for Rosenior in the underlying numbers. Recent results have been damaging, but overall, Chelsea's Premier League performances under Rosenior have been much better than earlier in the campaign, according to expected goals. In fact, Chelsea's net expected goals in the three months since Rosenior's appointment is the second-highest among Premier League sides, behind only leaders Arsenal. This expected goal differential is considered a strong indicator of a team's future performance. Chelsea's total shows they have created far better chances than they have conceded, placing them above Manchester City and Liverpool, suggesting their performances since the change of head coach have been better than their results indicate. The graphic highlighting a rolling average of Chelsea's expected goals and expected goals against shows Rosenior's positive impact in the context of their season. However, the numbers have trended in the wrong direction since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle. Of course, results matter most, especially with so much at stake at this point in the season. After three straight Premier League losses without scoring, following their Champions League demolition by Paris Saint-Germain, Rosenior has his work cut out to convince Chelsea fans he is the right person to take the club forward.