Will Arsenal's Struggle to Create Chances from Open Play Prove Costly in the Title Race?

This week in The Debrief, a Sky Sports column, Adam Bate analyzes key stories from the latest Premier League matches using data and opinion. Recently, Arsenal's disappointing weekend in the Premier League has raised concerns. Their home defeat to Bournemouth, coupled with Manchester City's win at Chelsea, has put the title back in the balance. However, it was Arsenal's performance that was more alarming, as they struggled to create chances from open play, with an expected goals total of just 0.18. The team's reliance on set-pieces was evident, and while this tactic has been successful for much of the season, it did not pay off on Saturday afternoon. In fact, 26 minutes and 48 seconds of the match were spent with the ball dead, including six minutes preparing for corners and seven minutes waiting for throw-ins. This approach made for a disjointed game, and it is not an isolated incident - Arsenal often fail to create from open play. Among the top-six teams in the Premier League table, they have had more matches with an open-play expected goals total of 0.3 or lower than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea combined. This is unusual for a Premier League leader, as the eventual winners of the competition have typically ranked among the top two overall for open-play creativity. Arsenal currently rank sixth in this metric, below Brighton. The question remains whether this will matter if they can beat City next time out. If the goal comes from a set piece, they will be vindicated, but it might help explain why fluency is proving a problem. Meanwhile, Jarrod Bowen played a crucial role in West Ham's 4-0 win over Wolves, moving them out of the relegation zone. Bowen has eight assists for the season in the Premier League, in addition to his eight goals, and has been consistent in his output since signing for West Ham in January 2020. He ranks among the top half a dozen players in the Premier League for goal involvements and is one of only two players, along with Mohamed Salah and Bruno Fernandes, to have registered more than 10 goal involvements in each of the past six seasons. If Bowen can finish the season strongly and find another four goal involvements in the remaining six games, he would not only help keep his team in the competition but also join an exclusive club. Erling Haaland is the only man to hit 20 goal involvements in each of the last three Premier League seasons, and Bowen is well-placed to match this feat. West Ham's chances of staying up were further boosted when Tottenham slipped to a 1-0 defeat to Sunderland on Sunday afternoon in Roberto De Zerbi's first game in charge. Brian Brobbey led the line impressively, and his ability to hold the ball up has been praised by former Sunderland striker Don Goodman. Brobbey has held the ball up 48 times this season, with only Arsenal striker Viktor Gyokeres doing so more often in the Premier League. However, Brobbey's success rate at retaining possession after receiving the ball in those situations is higher. His total of six Premier League goals might seem modest, but all six have been the final goal of the game, directly winning Sunderland eight points, including the winner at Newcastle.