Premier League Predictions: Brighton Set to Compound Tottenham's Misery

Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides insight into the weekend's action and recommends a 78/1 treble bet. When analyzing football from a betting perspective, head-to-head data is often disregarded, but derby matches are an exception to this rule. This particular fixture is inherently chaotic, with an average of 3.6 goals per game across their last seven Premier League meetings. Brentford are one of the most efficient attacking teams in the division when transitions are open, while Fulham's approach under Marco Silva relies heavily on wide overloads and aggressive delivery. When these two styles clash, structure often gives way to significant moments being created in the final third, making the over 3.5 goals line with Sky Bet an intriguing bet at 7/4. Leeds are priced like a team poised to overwhelm inferior opposition at 4/7 with Sky Bet, yet this seems a touch short when examining Wolves' recent performances. Although the table looks bleak for them and the direction of travel points towards the Sky Bet Championship, their performances have not quite matched the narrative. Take their defeat to West Ham last time out, for instance. The 4-0 loss suggests a collapse, but it was anything but. Wolves were competitive for long periods and arguably the better side for much of the match, finding themselves on the wrong end of a scoreline that does not reflect the balance of play. Leeds will bring their usual intensity, directness, and physicality, which is their identity. However, Wolves are not a soft touch in that department. In fact, they have shown enough resilience and structure in recent weeks to suggest they will not be bullied in the way the odds imply. The 11/8 with Sky Bet on Wolves' double chance has plenty going for it. Bournemouth are unbeaten in 13 matches across all competitions if you only consider 90-minute results. However, this is not a team to trust based on their horrible underlying defensive numbers. Across their last seven matches, they have allowed chances worth 14.35 expected goals, yet they have only conceded five. This represents an overperformance of around 9.65 goals, essentially meaning they are giving up chances at a rate of over two expected goals against per 90. Yes, there is a lot of noise around Eddie Howe at Newcastle right now, and their form is not at its usual levels. However, this is a team that has averaged 2.1 expected goals per 90 at home across the last two seasons. The relentless fixture list has helped kill their season, but I still believe in Howe being the most important part of this project at Newcastle, so I am happy to trust them at home when the price is right. It is here at 10/11 with Sky Bet. Tottenham are more than likely to be relegated now, according to the market, with odds of 17/20 with Sky Bet to face the drop. It is very difficult to see where points are going to come from. This is a team on their longest winless league streak in 91 years, with no victories in 14 games, and they have landed the odds just four times in their last 30 Premier League home games. They have had the same number of managers as home wins in that time. Brighton are the most in-form team in the Premier League right now, winning five of their last six and winning to nil in their last three away games. Don't overcomplicate it; just back the away win at 6/4 with Sky Bet. Leny Yoro and Ayden Heaven, with a combined age of 39, are Manchester United's only senior center-backs available for this clash, and both will be eager to impress. However, Joao Pedro is exactly the kind of striker who can expose that eagerness. His movement is sharp, but more importantly, he is clever. He initiates contact, buys fouls, and puts defenders in awkward body positions. Since the start of last season, he has drawn 19 yellow cards from opponents, with only six players in the league winning more. If Yoro or Heaven dives in half a second too early or gets caught on the wrong side, Joao Pedro will make sure the referee has a decision to make. That could lead to cards being shown to the two United defenders. Yoro is 5/1 and Heaven is 3/1 with Sky Bet to pick up a card. Combining them both through the BuildABet function offers a 13/1 longshot to back. Regular readers will know how exploiting the value potential in match-ups in the fouls market can be a goldmine for beating the market. The rise of the old-school physical center-forward being back in fashion has certainly added a different dynamic to analyzing foul markets, as center-backs are being fouled more due to the aggressive nature of the big-man striker. Brian Brobbey fits that bill. He played like a man possessed against Spurs last weekend, racking up eight foul involvements. The match-up with Ezri Konsa here looks ripe for a fouls bet. Konsa is too smart to fight attackers; he is one of the best around at selling fouls to win battles. He averages 1.5 fouls won per home game this season, and I think he will play Brobbey like a fiddle and win fouls off him. Konsa is 4/5 with Sky Bet to win two or more fouls. Liverpool not scoring in the first half away from home remains a sustainable edge to exploit. The Reds have scored just three first-half goals in their last 17 away days, as Arne Slot's controlled and safety-first style remains a tedious watch at times. If you have been backing this Liverpool first-half blank in their away games, you would have landed the money on 14 of the last 17 occasions. When you throw in Everton's defensive soundness into the mix, the case grows even stronger. The Toffees have kept a first-half clean sheet in 10 of their 16 home games and haven't conceded a first-half home goal in their last four games. It is 5/6 with Sky Bet to happen again. If you offered any of the teams scrapping at the bottom a free hit on who to play next, Burnley at home would be right at the top of the wishlist. One win in their last 23 Premier League matches tells you everything you need to know about where this team is right now. Competitive in spells, yes, but ultimately lacking the cutting edge and resilience needed to turn performances into points. This is exactly the type of fixture Forest have to cash in on. At home, with the crowd behind them, it is set up for them to take control. But don't expect a goal fest. Forest aren't a team that tends to run away from opponents. Even in favorable match-ups, their wins are often built on structure, discipline, and moments rather than relentless attacking waves. They have scored just two goals in their last seven home games. One goal just might be enough here, with a Forest win and under 3.5 goals at 6/5 with Sky Bet standing out. A monster match, and one where backing the bet no one wants to back is the shrewd move. I'm all over the draw here at 13/5 with Sky Bet. Arsenal's problems are clear: they have scored just three goals in their last five games. Man City scored three goals in 17 minutes at Chelsea last weekend. The Gunners' attacking process has completely gone to pot; their frontline is in such stale form. One of the biggest factors in all of this is the absence of Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka. The difference in output when Odegaard and Saka both play to when at least one of them is missing is stark. Since the start of last season, Arsenal's goals per game drop from 2.1 to 1.3 without both Saka and Odegaard starting, and their expected goals per game go the same way, nosediving from 1.9 to 1.3. Mikel Arteta would snap your hand off for a draw right now. Arsenal have to play to their strengths, and that is their world-class defensive unit without the ball. Do what you're good at. Arsenal should be trying to shut this game down, make it hard for City to score, and win set-pieces. They will come for the draw, and at the prices, I'm happy to back them to get it. Sometimes bets are less about the player you're backing and more about the problem standing in front of him. That's very much the case here with Chris Richards. If he starts for Crystal Palace, there's a strong chance he'll find himself matched up against Crysencio Summerville - and that's not a duel defenders tend to enjoy for 90 minutes. The West Ham winger has been a magnet for fouls all season, drawing more yellow cards from opponents than anyone else in the Premier League (14). That tells you exactly what kind of evening Richards could be in for. He's been carded in two of his last three Premier League appearances, which hints at a player already walking that fine line between aggressive and mistimed. Add in the pressure of dealing with one of the league's trickiest wide players, and you've got the perfect setup for another card, which is a 9/2 chance with Sky Bet. 1pt treble on Ayden Heaven to be carded, Man City to draw with Arsenal, and Chris Richards to be carded (78/1 with Sky Bet) Play Super 6 for a chance to win £250k! Enter for free.