Despite Liam Rosenior's initial optimism, citing Chelsea's fourth-place position in the Premier League table since his appointment, their recent performance has raised concerns. The team's three-goal defeat to Manchester City has dropped them to ninth place, and their third consecutive Premier League loss without scoring has intensified pressure on the head coach. This downturn, combined with their disappointing 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, has led to five losses in six games across all competitions. As Chelsea face an uphill battle to secure a top-five finish, questions arise about the team's trajectory under Rosenior's guidance.
Initially, his tenure began positively, with four consecutive Premier League wins against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham, and Wolves. However, they have only managed one win in their last seven games. The unbeaten start to his Premier League campaign was halted by Arsenal on March 1, and the Gunners also prevailed in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi-final. The significant gap between Chelsea and top-tier teams was further highlighted by their losses to PSG and Manchester City.
Sky Sports' Paul Merson noted, 'Rosenior started well but when Chelsea face the big teams, they get beaten up.' Rosenior has achieved notable wins away to Napoli and Aston Villa, but the recent loss to Manchester City has sparked pessimism among supporters ahead of their upcoming match against Manchester United. Rosenior was tasked with getting Chelsea back on track after Enzo Maresca's tumultuous exit, but his record three months in is strikingly similar. Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior, a slight increase from 1.48 per game earlier in the season. However, this is the third-lowest average by a Chelsea manager since 2004 and falls short of what is needed to secure a Champions League spot.
If Chelsea continue at this rate, they would finish with just 57 points, only five points above Liverpool's current total. The concern is that their current form suggests even this target might be out of reach unless Rosenior can orchestrate significantly improved results.
Rosenior pointed out that even Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to 'sort things out' at Manchester City and Liverpool. With only 11 Premier League games into his reign, having taken the job mid-season in challenging circumstances, he is not responsible for the recruitment that has left the squad lacking experience and leadership. He is also dealing with the aftermath of their extensive football schedule, having gone the distance in the Club World Cup last summer.
However, fans are still entitled to expect more from the team. Chelsea's mental fragility is not a new issue, having lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca in the first half of the season. But this problem has become more pronounced under Rosenior.
Their Premier League form has not recovered from conceding leads against Leeds and Burnley in consecutive games in February. Sunday's loss to Manchester City followed similar collapses against PSG and Everton. Rosenior has been unable to address Chelsea's issues with ill-discipline, with red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive games against Burnley and Arsenal proving costly.
Since Rosenior's first Premier League game in charge in January, Chelsea have received more cards than any other side. The head coach is not accountable for the comments that led to Enzo Fernandez's internal two-game suspension, but it is another instance of a player stepping out of line. Four points behind Liverpool with only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea's prospects for a Champions League finish do not look promising.
Based on their second-half collapse against Manchester City, Chelsea might soon have to start looking over their shoulders in the Premier League table. There is, however, some encouragement for Rosenior in the underlying numbers. Recent results have been damaging, but overall, Chelsea's Premier League performances under Rosenior have been much better than earlier in the campaign, according to expected goals.
In fact, Chelsea's net expected goals in the three months since Rosenior's appointment is the second-highest among Premier League sides, behind only leaders Arsenal. This expected goal differential is considered one of the strongest indicators of a team's future performance. Chelsea's total shows they have created far better chances than they have conceded, placing them above Manchester City and Liverpool, suggesting their performances since the change of head coach have been better than their results indicate. The graphic showing a rolling average of Chelsea's expected goals and expected goals against highlights Rosenior's positive impact in the context of their season.
However, the numbers have trended in the wrong direction since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle. Of course, results matter most, especially with so much at stake at this point in the season. And after three straight Premier League losses without scoring, following their Champions League demolition by Paris Saint-Germain, Rosenior has his work cut out to convince Chelsea fans he is the man to take the club forward.