Arsenal's Creative Shortfall: A Threat to Their Title Hopes?

Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column where Adam Bate analyzes key stories from the latest Premier League matches using a combination of data and opinion. This week, we delve into Arsenal's recent performance. The team's home defeat to Bournemouth, paired with Manchester City's win at Chelsea, has put the title back in the balance. However, it was Arsenal's lackluster display that raised more concerns. Despite Andoni Iraola's Bournemouth showcasing some impressive football, Mikel Arteta's team struggled to create scoring opportunities from open play, with an expected goals total of just 0.18. This was not an isolated incident, as Arsenal have often failed to create from open play this season. In fact, they have had more matches with an open-play expected goals total of 0.3 or lower than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea combined. This trend is unusual for a Premier League leader, as the eventual winners typically rank among the top two in open-play creativity. Arsenal currently rank sixth in this metric, below Brighton. The team's reliance on set pieces has been a theme throughout the campaign, but this approach may hinder their momentum. The opportunity cost of sending defenders up for set plays can be detrimental, as seen in their recent match. Arsenal spent 26 minutes and 48 seconds with the ball dead, including six minutes preparing for corners and seven minutes waiting for throw-ins. While the team knows its strengths, this formula has led to a 'bitty' game, and there have been too many such instances. The question remains whether this lack of creativity will cost them the title. Meanwhile, West Ham's 4-0 win over Wolves has moved them out of the relegation zone, thanks in part to Jarrod Bowen's two assists. Bowen has been consistent in his output, with eight goals and eight assists in the Premier League this season. Since signing for West Ham in January 2020, he ranks among the top half dozen players in the Premier League for goal involvements. If Bowen can finish the season strongly, he may join an exclusive club of players with 20 goal involvements in each of the last three Premier League seasons. Elsewhere, Sunderland's Brian Brobbey has impressed with his ability to hold the ball up, leading the line effectively. According to statistics, Brobbey has held the ball up 48 times this season, with a high success rate of retaining possession. His total of six Premier League goals may seem modest, but all six have been the final goal of the game, directly winning Sunderland eight points.