Arsenal's Creative Conundrum: Can Set Pieces Alone Secure the Title?

Welcome to The Debrief, where data and opinion intersect to analyze key Premier League storylines. This week, we examine Arsenal's concerning performance against Bournemouth, which highlighted their over-reliance on set pieces. The Gunners' expected goals total from open play was a meager 0.18, underscoring their struggle to create scoring opportunities. While Mikel Arteta's team has excelled at set plays, their emphasis on this tactic has come at the expense of their overall momentum. The match saw Arsenal spend 26 minutes and 48 seconds in possession but with the ball dead, including seven minutes waiting for throw-ins. This approach has become a recurring theme, with Arsenal often failing to create from open play. In fact, they have had more matches with an open-play expected goals total of 0.3 or lower than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea combined. This is unusual for a Premier League leader, as the eventual winners typically rank among the top two in open-play creativity. Arsenal's lack of fluency may prove problematic, especially if Manchester City can maintain their current form. Meanwhile, West Ham's 4-0 win over Wolves was a significant boost to their survival hopes, thanks in part to Jarrod Bowen's two assists. Bowen has been a consistent performer, ranking among the top half dozen players in the Premier League for goal involvements since joining West Ham in 2020. His reliability and robustness make him a talisman for the team, and he is well-placed to join an exclusive club of players with 20 goal involvements in each of the last three Premier League seasons. Elsewhere, Sunderland's Brian Brobbey impressed in their 1-0 win over Tottenham, showcasing his ability to hold up the ball and retain possession. His success rate in these situations is higher than anyone else near the top of the list, making him a valuable asset for the Black Cats.