The Flat Season Returns: Who Will Claim the Lincoln?

The highly anticipated Flat season has commenced, and it all begins with the fiercely competitive William Hill Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster's Town Moor. The senior form analyst at Sky Sports Racing has conducted an in-depth examination of this year's field and has made a selection for the prestigious event. At its core, the Lincoln is a high-stakes mile handicap, yet it holds a deeper significance, being steeped in history and marking the beginning of a new season, thus transforming it into a symbol that attracts substantial attention annually. Looking back, William Haggas' first victory in 1992 was achieved by High Low with a mark of 75, a rating that would not be sufficient for entry into the Spring Mile today. The modern-day Lincoln showcases a higher level of class, with nearly half a dozen horses boasting a rating of 100+ in this renewal. Trends in the Lincoln are often fleeting or transitional, making them less about lasting patterns and more about waves. The last four winners have been aged five or older, characterized by high mileage but also a high affinity for big fields on a straight mile, contrasting with the preceding five winners, who were all lightly-raced four-year-olds, with four of them based in Newmarket. While the last two winners had ratings in the low 90s, eight of the nine preceding winners had a three-figure mark. However, only two winners in the last 15 years could be considered Group horses in a handicap, namely Penitent and Addeybb. Interestingly, two of the last four winners had participated in the Balmoral on Champions Day at the end of their previous season. This year, as many as seven horses fulfill this criterion, with SHOUT performing the best among them in fourth place, while TRIBAL CHIEF caught the eye in seventh after an unfortunate run. The aforementioned Shout and Tribal Chief are from stables that have recently targeted the Lincoln, with the Crisfords having near-misses with Saleymm and Awaal, the latter finishing second to David Menuisier's Migration. Seven other yards that have previously won the Lincoln are represented in this edition, but one stands out above the rest: William Haggas, the top trainer in the race's history with five wins. ETERNAL FORCE, from Haggas' stable, has all the ingredients to make it six wins. As a low-mileage four-year-old whose progress became more pronounced as last season progressed, Eternal Force is a dream for profilers. However, this comes at a premium on his price, and he is not the only horse of this advantageous age. It would take something extraordinary to prevent Eternal Force from being the favorite, but LA BOTTE is indeed something unusual. La Botte's performance under Spencer in the Trial at Wolverhampton was eye-catching, with the best run-out speed by far on the day. He also topped the same metric in the 30-runner Britannia at Royal Ascot, where he beat all but one, appearing every inch a pattern performer of the future. La Botte is an anagram of 'a lot bet', which there will undoubtedly be on him, making him a standout contender. Charlie Appleby won the Lincoln with four-year-olds in 2016 and 2019, and there are elements of both in ANNO DOMINI, who has had only a handful of races and is coming from a stint in Dubai where neither race fully tested him. Carrying just 9-1 with Toby Moore's claim, this is a low weight for one who tackled the Group 1 Futurity in his third race. ROGUE DIPLOMAT ended last year on a roll, with four consecutive handicap wins, all by less than a length, but they were all at 7f. The concern is that going this far for the first time out may rekindle his free-going fire. The Irish challenger, ORANDI, was third last year but failed to impress in the same race a fortnight ago. Just behind Orandi 12 months ago was GALERON, who is 7lbs lower in the weights now despite ending 2025 on a higher note when runner-up at Doncaster, where he has performed well on all four visits. For a horse who was once fourth in a Guineas, he's potentially very well handicapped, especially with Jack Callan's claim. On this day for the last two years, ALPHA CRUCIS has finished fourth and then eighth in the Lincoln, while THUNDER ROAR has finished second in two Spring Miles. It's unusual to see him so high up the Lincoln weights at the age of seven. The term 'regulars' doesn't just apply to Doncaster, as there are other straight-track specialists, such as GREEK ORDER, who was fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup, one place ahead of URBAN LION, who maintained high standards until the very end of the season. URBAN LION won first time out last season. GREAT ACCLAIM has plenty of winning form on straight courses but usually takes a few runs to get up to speed, plus he's reappearing without the blinkers that took him to a new level last summer. In real terms, he's got top weight, but his handicap mark was higher still when BOTANICAL was second in the 2024 John Smith's Cup, a touch of class that none of his rivals can match. He'll make them all go if the switch to Karl Burke has revived him, which is likely given the trainer's talent. Karl Burke has won the last two Cambridgeshires, both carrying top weight and in these colors. VALVANO is a law unto himself, but if he's ever to reveal his true potential, it will be here, first time out with his adrenaline up, blinkered, and tongue-tied for the first time. He flatters to deceive and hasn't won since his two-year-old debut, but he's got a race like this in him if the mood takes him, and the more rain, the better. Although they haven't registered a win since 2021, four-year-olds are invariably the first point of call for a Lincoln, and La Botte could be one of the really good ones to come here, like Penitent and Addeybb, who likewise were having just their sixth start at Doncaster. However, there's no value in his price, and an each-way swing on URBAN LION is my preferred play. He ran really well time and again in races of this nature last year, and being drawn next to Botanical could be a sweet spot in a race without any other identifiable formation focal point.