Kevin Blake, a seasoned horse‑racing analyst, will be on the ground in Paris for the prestigious Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, and he has singled out three promising contenders from the supporting programme that will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Racing. The Arc weekend at Longchamp, under the banner of the Qatar-sponsored event, is universally recognised as one of the sport’s marquee occasions, featuring a main race at 3:05 p.m. on Sunday that attracts the very best thoroughbreds from around the globe.
Yet the true depth of the card lies in the array of Group 1 contests that follow, each offering its own storyline and betting intrigue. Recent weather patterns have been unusually dry, meaning the turf is expected to hold up as "good" ground, perhaps edging toward the firmer side. Such conditions typically favour horses with a turn of foot and can make the race‑time fractions quicker than usual, a factor that will play into Blake’s selections.
**1. Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp – Longines (1:47)** The Abbaye is traditionally a sprint showdown over five furlongs, and while the 2024 edition may not rank among the strongest fields of recent memory, the importance of the starting draw cannot be overstated.
Historically, horses drawn on the inside have a measurable edge because they can secure the rail and save ground. Blake therefore backs SHIRI, a filly trained by Francis‑Henri Graffard, who has been allocated stall four – a position that should allow her to settle comfortably without being forced wide.
SHIRI is the progeny of Mehmas, a sire known for producing sprinters that improve with each run. This season she has shown a clear upward trajectory, especially after being dropped back to five furlongs. She captured a Listed victory at Deauville with authority and then finished a close second to Naana's Shadow in a Group 3 at the same distance on the Longchamp track. Those performances demonstrate that she possesses both the speed and the tactical versatility to thrive on the firm ground expected on race day.
With a favourable draw and a proven record at the distance, Blake believes SHIRI has a very strong chance of delivering a winning performance. **2. Prix de l'Opera – Longines (3:50)** The Opera, run over 2 ½ miles for fillies and mares, has assembled a compelling mix of three‑year‑old talent and seasoned older horses. The field’s headline is Aventure, a proven Group‑level performer trained by Christophe Ferland, who currently sits as the odds‑on favourite.
However, Blake spots a potential upset in the form of MISS SCOTT, a filly from the John & Thady Gosden stable. MISS SCOTT is out of Night of Thunder, a sire whose offspring often excel when given a measured progression through their early career.
Despite being handled gently so far, she has shown consistent improvement, culminating in a dominant win in the Snow Fairy Fillies' Stakes at the Curragh. That victory highlighted her ability to handle a slightly longer trip and to finish strongly under pressure. Returning to a distance just a touch longer than her recent successes should suit her natural stamina, and Blake feels that if she can replicate the form she displayed at the Curragh, she could challenge the more experienced Aventure.
While a career‑best effort would be required to beat the favourite, Blake argues that a well‑timed run could see MISS SCOTT pull off a notable upset. **3. Qatar Prix de la Foret – (4:25)** The Foret is often misunderstood as a straight seven‑furlong sprint, but the actual configuration includes a slight downhill bend that shortens the effective distance and tests pure speed more than endurance.
With the ground likely to be firmer than usual for the meeting, horses that can maintain a high cruising speed will have the advantage. Blake’s pick for this race is THESECRETADVERSARY, a colt trained by Fozzy Stack and sired by St Mark's Basilica. THESECRETADVERSARY has been unbeaten in three starts at distances under a mile this season, including a decisive win in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and a victory in the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville.
Although he has suffered three defeats in Group 1 contests over a full mile, those setbacks do not diminish his proven effectiveness over shorter trips. The combination of a firm surface, a slightly reduced distance, and a downhill segment aligns perfectly with his speed‑oriented pedigree. Blake believes that the colt’s unbeaten record at these ranges, coupled with his ability to accelerate sharply out of the bend, makes him the most likely winner of the Foret.
In summary, Blake’s three selections—SHIRI in the Abbaye, MISS SCOTT in the Opera, and THESECRETADVERSARY in the Foret—each capitalize on distinct race‑day variables such as draw position, distance suitability, and ground conditions. By analysing recent form, pedigree influences, and the nuances of each race’s layout, Blake offers a nuanced perspective that goes beyond simple favorite‑picking. Viewers can follow all three contests live on Sky Sports Racing, where Blake’s insights will be available alongside the on‑track action, providing a richer viewing experience for both casual fans and seasoned punters alike.