Our senior form analyst turns his attention to Europe’s most illustrious flat race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Racing this Sunday. He shares his top picks and the reasoning behind each selection, offering a thorough preview of what promises to be a historic showdown.
The Arc is more than just a race; it is a clash of nations, a meeting of generations, and a decisive test that crowns the continent’s best middle‑distance horse. A returning champion adds an extra layer of intrigue, as the quest to defend the title brings both motivation and fresh challenges. Below is an in‑depth look at the contenders slated for the 2026 edition, widely regarded as the pinnacle of flat racing worldwide. "If you want to be a star, you must look the part," and Daryz has embodied that mantra all season.
Apart from a single hiccup after Royal Ascot—a questionable blood test that sparked a brief scandal—he has continued to impress. His performance in the Prix Foy confirmed his readiness for a second Arc attempt, a feat achieved only eight times in the race’s long history. Historically, only one Arc winner, the legendary mare Allez France, has also taken the nine‑furlong Prix d'Ispahan en route to victory, though Daryz’s 42 mph burst in that race, translating to a blistering 10.68‑second furlong, suggests he may surpass even that benchmark.
Such speed from a true stayer highlights the sophisticated engine that powers Daryz and underscores the daunting task his rivals face. Competing against a horse of his calibre on familiar ground is a monumental challenge. Roger Varian enters his fourth Arc runner.
His previous entries—Kingston Hill (fourth in 2014) and Postponed (favorite, fifth in 2016)—show a pattern of near‑misses. His latest hope, Saddadd, may lack the accolades of those predecessors but has been climbing steadily, collecting marginal gains from a London Gold Cup win to a German Group One triumph. The Grosser Preis von Baden, a race that has produced Arc winners such as Marienbard, Danedream and Torquator Tasso, could serve as a springboard for Saddadd.
Although this will be his first attempt at the 2,400‑metre distance, he has already shown speed in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and the Coral‑Eclipse, both mile‑and‑a‑quarter Group One events, making him a plausible long‑shot. The Polish Derby winner of 2025, now a four‑year‑old campaigning in France, recently split Al Aasy and Arrow Eagle in the Group Two Grand Prix de Deauville.
While his form is impressive, the step up to the Arc remains a significant leap. Another noteworthy name is the Japanese contender Meisho Tabaru, a genuine Group One performer with consecutive victories in the Takarazuka Kinen, where he defeated Croix Du Nord—who was a 14‑1 outsider in last year’s Arc after edging Daryz in a trial—and Danon Decile, a former Sheema Classic winner.
Meisho Tabaru prefers to lead from the front, a tactic that earned him a fifth‑place finish (behind fellow Japanese runner Soul Rush) in the 2025 Dubai Turf. Historically, thirty‑eight Japanese horses have tried the Arc over six decades without success, and Tabaru appears to follow that pattern. Jean‑Claude Rouget, a veteran of French racing, will see his final runner, Arrow Eagle, take the field.
Rouget’s résumé includes two Arcs and fourteen French Classics. Arrow Eagle performed admirably on firm ground but thrives on softer surfaces; unfortunately, the expected conditions at Longchamp differ from the heavy ground that favored him at Epsom’s Coronation Cup, where he won by ten lengths. Minnie Hauk, who recorded the widest winning margin in Arc history at six lengths, finished five and a half lengths ahead of the field a year ago. This season her form has dipped, yet history shows that a mare can rebound spectacularly, as seen with Treve and Found, both of whom captured a second Arc after a lackluster intervening year.
While she is easy to understand on paper, backing her remains a gamble. Kalpana’s story illustrates the importance of evolution. After an unlucky draw in last year’s Arc, she turned the tables in the King George, and this season she has matured into a powerful five‑year‑old. Fifteen horses have won the Arc the year after being beaten in it, and Kalpana’s recent software‑style upgrades—enhancing speed and resilience—have lifted her rating to 125, surpassing recent winners such as Found, Alpinista and Bluestocking.
Kalpana’s career has been patched with gaps, but she has filled them with victories in the Pretty Polly Stakes, the Prix de l'Opéra and an emphatic Prix Vermeille win, the latter achieved in the fastest overall time among the three trials that day. This marks her first encounter with the “big boys,” and she will need to summon every ounce of her newly‑found stamina. Two of the last three Arc victors were unraced at two, a trend that shines a light on Varian’s latest hope, who captured the same newcomers’ race in April that Daryz won a year earlier. His sole defeat came in the Grand Prix de Paris, a narrow loss to Maltese Cross, and a modest rebound in the Prix Niel suggests his upside lies more in potential than proven performance.
Maltese Cross, a German‑trained three‑year‑old, has placed in Group One races against British challengers such as Tiffany and Saddadd. Though his recent form shows promise, the Arc may still be beyond his reach at this stage. The Maltese Cross blend has been refined over 393 days and seven preparatory races, producing a potent mixture of stamina and speed. In the Grand Prix de Paris he clocked 43.1 mph, faster than Daryz’s pace in the Prix d'Ispahan, and his rating now exceeds that of Daryz and other recent three‑year‑old colts.
Yet his ultimate Arc performance remains a question mark. Turning to the fillies, Thundering On, rated 117—just a pound shy of Minnie Hauk—proved her class in the Oaks and delivered a blistering final two furlongs in the Blandford at the Curragh, outpacing any recent Group One sprinter.
Her form line and pedigree suggest she could thrive in the Arc’s demanding conditions. Diamond Necklace, unbeaten in two Classics and a recent victor over a Prix Vermeille winner, would likely be the second‑favorite if not for her defeat by Aventure in the Prix Jean‑Romanet. As a half‑sister to Irish Oaks winner Chicquita, she possesses the genetic makeup to improve over the 2,400‑metre trip.
In summary, Daryz remains the headline act, exuding the aura of a future Arc legend despite a modest dip at Royal Ascot. Yet the market may be undervaluing Maltese Cross, whose combination of raw stamina and hidden speed could make him the standout three‑year‑old in Europe.
Kalpana, Thundering On, and Diamond Necklace each bring unique strengths, while the Japanese and German challengers add depth to a field that promises drama, strategy, and perhaps a new chapter in Arc history. Catch every moment of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe weekend live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 512) on Saturday 3 October and Sunday 4 October.