Sky Sports analyst Johnny Nelson has warned that a showdown between heavyweight champions Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua is becoming increasingly improbable. According to Nelson, Joshua and his promotional outfit Matchroom Boxing have solid reasons to hold firm on the terms they have already set, and those reasons are making the prospective bout look less and less likely to materialise.

The saga began when promoter Eddie Hearn announced that Joshua had signed a contract to face Fury at Wembley Stadium. That declaration sparked a fresh round of negotiations over the venue, with New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden also being floated as a possible alternative location. Hearn has even been in talks with London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, who has pledged to do everything he can to keep the fight on British soil and to bring the economic benefits of a major boxing event to the capital.

However, the involvement of the mayor and the added pressure of a curfew at Wembley have added another layer of complexity to an already tangled situation. Nelson believes that Joshua’s recent performance in the ring has given his camp even more leverage. In his comeback fight against Kristian Prenga, the former unified champion was knocked down twice, exposing vulnerabilities that many observers thought had been largely hidden in his previous victories. "When you look at Anthony Joshua’s last fight, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence," Nelson told Sky Sports.

"That performance, combined with the fact that they have a signed contract, means they can say, ‘This is what we asked for. If you don’t want it, that’s your problem.’" The former heavyweight champion’s lackluster showing has apparently emboldened his team to stick rigidly to the terms they believe are fair. "Anthony Joshua has told Eddie Hearn, ‘We have a contract, stick to the contract. No nudging, this is what we’re doing,’" Nelson quoted.

"Unless Turki Al‑Alshikh, who is organising the fight, and Tyson Fury themselves decide to concede, the fight is unlikely to happen." Nelson’s assessment is that the odds are slipping further each day. He pointed out that the pressure is now coming from multiple directions: the British government, local authorities, and the promoters on both sides.

While Hearn has tried to smooth things over by meeting with Mayor Khan, the underlying issue remains the contractual demands set by Joshua’s camp. "They have put the pressure on, and Sadiq Khan has said he will do everything possible to make it happen for the UK, but Anthony Joshua’s team is firm: ‘We have a contract, stick to it.’" The analyst also highlighted a potential double standard in how the two fighters are being treated. "If it were the other way around and Tyson Fury had delivered a performance as shaky as Joshua’s did, even though he fought only a night before, I doubt the same level of scrutiny would be applied," Nelson mused.

"That disparity adds another complication to the negotiations." In addition to the venue debate, there are logistical concerns that could further delay or derail the fight. Wembley Stadium, while a massive and prestigious arena, imposes a curfew that could interfere with a late‑night main event. The alternative of Madison Square Garden brings its own set of challenges, including trans‑Atlantic travel, differing broadcast rights, and the need to satisfy sponsors on both sides of the Atlantic.

All of these factors contribute to a scenario in which the parties are forced to either compromise or walk away. Nelson’s bottom line is clear: unless Fury’s camp decides to bend on the contractual points that Joshua’s team has set, the bout is unlikely to proceed. He summed it up succinctly: "I think it’s less and less likely to happen.

The contract is there, and Joshua’s team is standing their ground. If the other side doesn’t give in, the fight will probably never materialise." The broader context of heavyweight boxing also plays a role. Fans have been clamouring for a unification bout that would finally settle the question of who is the true heavyweight king.

Both fighters have massive followings and significant commercial appeal, making the potential revenue from a Fury‑Joshua clash astronomical. Yet the business side of the sport often hinges on fine details—purse splits, broadcast windows, and venue guarantees—all of which are currently points of contention. In summary, Johnny Nelson’s analysis paints a picture of a fight that is slipping further from reality with each passing day.

Joshua’s recent bout, the firm stance of his promoters, the involvement of political figures, and the logistical hurdles surrounding a possible Wembley or New York showdown all combine to make the Fury‑Joshua showdown appear increasingly remote. Until one side concedes on the disputed terms, the heavyweight world may have to wait longer than hoped for a definitive clash between the two British titans.