The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the Super League play‑offs for the first time after finishing seventh this season. For almost two years, fans and pundits have been dissecting the reasons behind this decline, and many supporters feel the analysis has been going on even longer. The next twelve months will reveal whether the club’s decision‑makers inside the four walls finally recognise that their trajectory is heading downhill.
The classic question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—offers a useful metaphor for sport. In complex systems, tiny changes can cascade into massive outcomes. If the Saints’ low ebb this year is the tornado, what was the butterfly’s wing that sparked it?
To answer that, we need to rewind to 2019, when St Helens lifted their first Super League trophy in five years. Mid‑season 2017 found the club sitting around mid‑table, prompting a decisive move: head coach Keiron Cunningham was replaced by Justin Holbrook. After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017, courtesy of a Luke Gale drop‑goal, and a disappointing 2018 campaign despite Ben Barba’s brilliance, 2019 arrived as a turning point. The Saints dominated the competition, losing only three games and cruising to the top of the league.
Their 23‑6 Grand Final victory over Salford Red Devils cemented St Helens’ return to the summit. That team was a blend of home‑grown talent and Australian imports, featuring Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley and Lachlan Coote, all in their mid‑to‑late twenties and at the peak of their powers.
When Holbrook departed, Kristian Woolf stepped in, and success continued. Woolf later admitted that the COVID‑19 shutdown may have saved his job, as the season was halted just after a loss to Huddersfield Giants and Castleford Tigers. When play resumed, Woolf consulted his squad about expectations and style, forging a partnership between a disciplined coach and an ambitious group of players. Jack Welsby’s spectacular Grand Final try in 2020 epitomised the era, followed by back‑to‑back Super League titles, a Challenge Cup, and a League Leaders’ Shield.
The club seemed unstoppable—until the unthinkable happened. In 2023, St Helens travelled to Australia for the World Club Challenge and shocked the rugby world by defeating the Penrith Panthers. Paul Wellens, a former captain turned assistant, was promoted to head coach after a decade on the coaching staff. Lewis Dodd’s golden‑point drop‑goal became an iconic moment, and the Saints appeared to have planted their flag on the highest peak.
Having achieved everything imaginable, the club faced a crucial decision: should they begin a transition, rely on the same core group, or adopt a hybrid approach? They chose option B—rewarding their star players with upgraded contracts while still operating under a strict salary cap. By this stage, stalwarts such as Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata'utia were entering their thirties. Naturally, their contracts grew, and a £2.1 million cap began to feel increasingly tight.
When contracts inflate year after year, the cap space for new signings and younger talent shrinks. Either the club must be ruthless in its budgeting, or players must accept lower wages than they earned in their prime—a difficult sell.
Over the next three seasons under Wellens, St Helens added only eleven new faces to replace departing legends like Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Makinson, Lewis Dodd and Mata'utia. Those newcomers—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were largely acquired on a shoestring, with Wright and Cross becoming available after Salford’s financial collapse. Critics argue that the club has not replaced like‑for‑like, and that the replacements have not matched the quality of those they succeeded. Former CEO Mike Rush described the recruitment model as “Moneyball”, borrowing the term from Michael Lewis’s book about the Oakland Athletics.
In a Moneyball approach, a club signs players who excel in specific statistical categories—high tackle counts, meters gained—while accepting deficiencies elsewhere, all to stay within a limited budget. Rush told Sky Sports, “We’ll always get some things wrong. In a salary‑cap sport you assign a value to a player, and that determines whether you get value for money.” He cited Waqa Blake, a former NRL Grand Final participant, as an example of a player whose résumé didn’t guarantee success but fit the cap constraints and offered a gamble worth taking. Did this gamble pay off?
The answer is mixed. While the Saints avoided a direct like‑for‑like replacement, the squad’s overall cohesion suffered. Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin bluntly said, “St Helens’ recruitment has been shocking.
They’ve made short‑term, convenient choices and failed to replace like for like. Young players have been thrust into Super League before they’re ready, and the old squad wasn’t durable enough to carry the load.” Meanwhile, other clubs have closed the wage gap. Wigan, Wakefield, York, Leigh and several others now have the financial muscle to outbid St Helens for talent, eroding the Saints’ historic advantage as a spending powerhouse. The consequences of a thinning talent pool are evident.
Veteran duo Lomax and Percival combined for just 14 appearances in 2026, no longer offering the impact they once did. Long‑time stalwarts Wellens, Roby and Rush departed within a short span, removing institutional memory that had guided the club since the 1990s. Injuries compounded the woes: skipper Matty Lees was sidelined early in the season, and enforcer Morgan Knowles left for the NRL, leaving a leadership vacuum on the field.
Under Wellens, the team settled for third, sixth and fifth‑place finishes, reaching the play‑off semi‑finals twice but failing to capture the magic of earlier years. The board deemed those results insufficient and appointed Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract to rejuvenate the club. Rowley’s tenure lasted less than a season; he was dismissed ahead of the Round 20 clash with rivals Wigan Warriors in July. It remains speculative how the season might have unfolded under his guidance, especially given the injury crisis and the difficulty of imprinting his systems on a club with a distinct DNA.
St Helens ultimately finished seventh, prompting a fresh appointment: Australian head coach Kevin Walters, currently leading the Kangaroos, was hired to restore the club’s fortunes. Former Saint James Graham revealed on his podcast that he sent Walters a compilation of the club’s greatest victories to illustrate why the motto “Never write off the Saints” still holds weight. Walters is known for fostering strong team cultures and has already hinted at significant signings.
Rumours suggest the Saints are now willing to splash cash again to align on‑field quality with off‑field expectations. The central question remains: what was the “butterfly wing” that set off the 2026 tornado? In hindsight, it appears the Saints spent four years without any wing‑flapping at all—opting for stability over evolution. In sport, stagnation is tantamount to regression.
Those at St Helens may claim they never foresaw the outcome, but the decision to choose option B—standing still rather than embracing incremental change—predestined the decline. As the regular Super League season wraps up with Round 27 on Thursday, 10 September, live on Sky Sports, St Helens faces a pivotal crossroads. Will they reignite the small, deliberate adjustments that once propelled them to greatness, or will they continue to watch the consequences of a decade‑long inertia unfold? The answer will shape the club’s destiny for years to come.