The United States is marking its 250th anniversary, and at the same time the world’s oldest Classic race – the St Leger – celebrates another milestone. Few sporting contests can boast such longevity.
As the excitement builds for Saturday’s Betfred St Leger, the question on every racing fan’s mind is: which horse will claim the coveted trophy? First, it is encouraging to see the Derby champion Christmas Day entered in the field. Achieving the Derby‑St Leger double is a rare feat; even legendary horses like Shergar managed only a fourth‑place finish in the Leger, and Camelot fell just short of a Triple Crown in recent years. The Leger is a demanding test – it is a furlong and a half shorter than the classic two‑mile distance, yet it still requires a blend of speed and staying power.
Only a handful of horses have successfully backed up a Derby win with a Leger victory, the most recent being Never Say Die, St Paddy, Nijinsky and Reference Point. Christmas Day will be hoping to join that elite company. His stablemate Pierre Bonnard is another strong contender, and the race could also become a family affair for Aidan O'Brien. The Irish trainer is eyeing a record‑breaking tenth Leger win, but his own son Joseph O'Brien, who trains the favourite Enceladus, will be looking to thwart his father’s ambitions.
The jockey aboard Christmas Day is Sean Levey, while Joseph O'Brien will be aboard Enceladus. Action, a close relative of last year’s Derby winner Lambourn, has a respectable résumé – a third place in the Royal Lodge Stakes and a second in the Group 1 Futurity.
He also improved from a fourth‑place finish in the Sandown Classic Trial to a respectable effort in the Dante at York. However, his performance has been hampered by a series of tactical missteps: he ran too freely in the Derby when equipped with cheekpieces for the first time, and since then he has been employed as a pacemaker in the Irish Derby, King George, and the Juddmonte.
In the latter race he failed to get a clean start and was left trailing, casting doubt on his stamina for the longer Leger trip. Action will need a firm hand on his powerful shoulders to stay on the pace. Rossa Ryan, writing for Richard Hannon, notes that many observers of the Derby thought Alderman might be aimed at the Leger after a solid fifth‑place finish behind Christmas Day, only two lengths ahead of Rebel Rocker. Alderman subsequently ran last of five in the Bahrain Trophy on firm ground, suggesting he still needs to find his best rhythm.
He remains a five‑race maiden, albeit a talented one, and soft ground – perhaps from rain this week – could play to his strengths. Ronan Whelan points out that the last horse to win both the Derby and the St Leger was Reference Point in 1987. Christmas Day appears to have a genuine chance of replicating that double, especially if the ground stays soft.
His Derby victory on yielding turf was decisive, beating the Arc‑target Maltese Cross by nearly three lengths – arguably the strongest form in the current Leger field. Although he was beaten in the Irish Derby, he finished a close second to Pierre Bonnard, and the two horses reversed their positions in the Great Voltigeur, with Bonnard conceding five pounds.
Christmas Day has shown remarkable consistency all season and seems capable of handling the extended distance, even if a further improvement is unlikely. Billy Loughnane, riding for Joseph O'Brien, highlights Enceladus, a large, long‑striding colt who remains unbeaten as a three‑year‑old. Enceladus has progressed with each run, most recently winning the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood after a convincing King George V Handicap victory at Royal Ascot. He displayed a sharp turn of foot approaching the final furlong at Goodwood, though he tends to drift right – a tendency that may be mitigated by today’s cheekpieces.
Joseph O'Brien is hoping to repeat his 2017 Leger triumph with Galileo Chrome, and the fact that Enceladus’s half‑brother excelled over a mile and six furlongs adds to the optimism. Enceladus arrives fresher than many rivals and could still improve, making him a serious threat. Danny Tudhope of Andrew Balding discusses the filly Amelia Earhart, who broke her maiden at Chester’s Boodles May Festival and entered the Queen’s Vase as the favourite, only to finish sixth to Limestone. A respectable second in the Bahrain Trophy hinted at progress, but a heavy defeat in the Great Voltigeur suggests she may have overreached.
Even with newly fitted cheekpieces, she will need to settle and find her rhythm to be competitive over the Leger distance. Clifford Lee, also writing for Karl Burke, points to the relatively unexposed runner Clifford Lee (the horse) who has won two of his four starts, including a narrow victory over Del Maro in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood. However, his form stalled in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot when he was overly keen and faded in the home straight. His full brother Arabian Force stays a mile and six furlongs, indicating that the stamina is present, but Clifford Lee must learn to relax and improve significantly to be a factor.
David Probert, another representative of Andrew Balding, mentions the modestly rated David Probert (the horse) who has a record of one win from six starts. He earned his sole victory over a mile and a half in July and followed it with a clear second in a valuable Goodwood handicap. As the lowest‑rated entrant, he faces an uphill battle, but recent backing suggests some punters see potential. If he can stay the trip, he may surprise the more fancied rivals.
Saffie Osborne, riding for Joseph O'Brien, focuses on the stablemate Enceladus’s fellow runner, a colt whose career has turned around dramatically. After unimpressive early outings over sprint distances, he posted a striking win at Naas over a mile, then a nine‑length victory at Killarney over a mile and a half, and finally captured the Listed Vinnie Roe Stakes at Leopardstown at 22‑1 odds.
His high head carriage and willingness to stay the distance make him a fascinating prospect, and a partnership with jockey Saffie Osborne could produce a historic result. Wayne Lordan, aboard the seasoned Camelot colt, notes that this horse displayed classic stamina at two, winning the Group 3 Zetland Stakes and the Group 1 Critérium de Saint‑Cloud over a mile and a quarter on varying ground. After a mixed early season, he finished a close third behind Christmas Day in the Irish Derby and then reversed form in the Great Voltigeur, challenging Maltese Cross to the finish.
With a dam line that includes a Park Hill third, he possesses the pedigree to stay the Leger distance and could be a serious contender. Jason Watson rides a useful, relatively unknown colt for Faye Bramley.
The horse placed sixth in the Derby and performed similarly in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury. His dam’s stamina influence suggests he can stay the trip, but the Leger will test his limits.
Tom Marquand is aboard the only filly in the field, Amelia Earhart, who won the Listed Cheshire Oaks but has struggled in Group company, including the Epsom and Curragh Oaks. She failed to finish strongly in the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over a mile and a half, but showed improvement in the Give Thanks Stakes at Cork.
She carries a personal connection for the writer, being named after a heroine and a distant relative of his American wife, and will be hoping to prove her staying ability. In summary, Enceladus arrives on a wave of form for Joseph O'Brien, who has enjoyed a stellar season.
A narrow victory could make him the first European Classic winner for the Niarchos family since Study Of Man’s French Derby triumph in 2018, and it would be a second Classic win for jockey Billy Loughnane. Christmas Day remains a consistent performer and, despite a less spectacular York prep, could be overtaken by Pierre Bonnard, especially over the extended distance, as both are sired by the stamina‑rich Camelot. The race also offers a chance to see how Highwayman fares; the O’Brien dynasty appears poised to dominate, but the Leger’s long history reminds us that anything can happen on the Town Moor.