The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the Super League play‑offs for the first time after finishing seventh this season. For almost two years, fans, pundits and former players have been dissecting the reasons behind this decline, and many supporters feel the analysis has been going on even longer. The next twelve months will reveal whether the club’s decision‑makers finally recognise that the team’s trajectory has been heading downhill. The classic question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—offers a useful metaphor for sport.
Small, seemingly insignificant changes can cascade through a complex system and produce dramatic outcomes. If the Saints’ recent low point is the tornado, what was the tiny wing‑flap that triggered it? To answer that, we must rewind to 2019, the year St Helens captured their first Super League title in five years.
Mid‑season 2017 found the club languishing around mid‑table. The board decided to part ways with head coach Keiron Cunningham and appointed Justin Holbrook. After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017—courtesy of a Luke Gale drop‑goal—and a disappointing 2018 campaign despite Ben Barba’s brilliance, 2019 arrived as a watershed moment.
The Saints dominated the league, losing only three games and cruising to the top of the table. Their 23‑6 Grand Final victory over Salford Red Devils cemented St Helens’ return to the summit. That team was packed with talent in their prime: Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley and Lachlan Coote were all in their mid‑to‑late twenties, blending home‑grown players with Australian imports. The following year brought a change of stewardship.
Kristian Woolf took over as head coach, and he later claimed that the COVID‑19 shutdown may have saved his job. When the season halted, Woolf used the break to discuss expectations with his squad, forging a partnership between a disciplined coach and a group hungry for success. The result was a spectacular Grand Final try by Jack Welsby in 2020, followed by another league title, a Challenge Cup and a League Leaders’ Shield. The momentum continued.
In 2023 the Saints travelled to Australia for the World Club Challenge and shocked the Penrith Panthers. Paul Wellens, a former captain turned assistant coach, stepped up as head coach after a decade on the club’s staff. Lewis Dodd’s golden‑point drop‑goal became an iconic moment, and the Saints seemed to have reached the pinnacle of modern rugby league.
At that point, the club faced a crucial decision: should they begin a transition, or should they continue relying on the same core group of players? The board chose option B—maintaining the status quo while rewarding the senior stars with upgraded contracts. In a salary‑capped competition, this approach inevitably ate into cap space.
Players like Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata'utia were all approaching or had entered their thirties, and their new deals consumed a substantial portion of the £2.1 million cap. When a large share of the cap is allocated to veteran contracts, there is less room to attract marquee signings or to offer competitive wages to emerging talent. The club either has to be ruthlessly pragmatic—forcing younger players to accept lower salaries—or risk a talent drain. Over the next three seasons under Wellens, St Helens made only eleven signings to replace departing stalwarts such as Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Makinson, Lewis Dodd and Mata'utia.
Those recruits—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were largely opportunistic acquisitions, some made possible only because Salford Red Devils faced financial collapse. Critics argue that these replacements have not matched the quality of the players they succeeded. Former CEO Mike Rush described the recruitment policy as “Moneyball”, borrowing a term from Michael Lewis’s book about the Oakland Athletics.
The idea is to sign undervalued players who excel in specific statistical categories, thereby maximising output within a limited budget. Rush admitted that the process involves risk: "We're always going to get stuff wrong because whether it's an overseas player or not, you take risks and you gamble." In practice, the Saints’ gamble has not paid off. Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin labelled the recruitment “shocking” and “terrible”, noting that the club made short‑term, convenient choices rather than securing like‑for‑like replacements.
Young players have been thrust into the Super League before they were ready, exposing a lack of depth and durability in the squad. Meanwhile, other clubs have closed the wage gap.
Wigan, Wakefield, York, Leigh and several emerging teams now have the financial muscle to outbid St Helens for quality talent. As the senior roster aged and injuries piled up, the club’s performance slipped. In 2026, Lomax and Percival combined for just fourteen games, a far cry from their previous contributions. The departures of long‑time figures Paul Wellens, James Roby and Mike Rush—each of whom had been integral to the club’s identity since the 1990s—further destabilised the organisation.
Injuries compounded the problem. Captain Matty Lees went down early in the season, and enforcer Morgan Knowles left for the NRL, leaving the Saints without their traditional hard‑hitting core. The attritional style that had delivered third, sixth and fifth‑place finishes under Wellens failed to excite supporters, who grew weary of a team that seemed to be coasting rather than competing. In response, the board dismissed Wellens and appointed Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract, hoping to inject fresh ideas.
Rowley’s tenure lasted less than a season; he was sacked ahead of the high‑profile clash with Wigan Warriors in Round 20. While it is impossible to know how the season would have unfolded under Rowley—especially given the injury crisis—the fact remains that St Helens finished seventh. The club has now turned to Australian head coach Kevin Walters, renowned for building strong cultures and advocating for his players.
Walters has already hinted at significant signings, and St Helens legend James Graham even sent him a compilation of the club’s greatest victories to illustrate why the motto “Never write off the Saints” still holds weight. The prevailing narrative suggests that the Saints are once again willing to splash cash to align on‑field quality with off‑field expectations.
Yet the underlying question remains: what was the original “wing flap” that set the 2026 tornado in motion? In hindsight, the answer appears to be the four‑year period of inertia—opting not to innovate, to keep the existing core, and to avoid the discomfort of a major overhaul.
In sport, stagnation is synonymous with decline. The decision to stand still, to avoid the short‑term pain of restructuring, effectively set the stage for the dramatic fall.
Looking ahead, the regular Super League season will conclude with Round 27 on Thursday, 10 September, live on Sky Sports. Whether Kevin Walters can reverse the tide, or whether the club will need another strategic pivot, remains to be seen. One thing is clear: the Saints’ recent history illustrates how a seemingly minor choice—choosing comfort over change—can ripple through a complex system and culminate in a full‑blown crisis, just as a butterfly’s wing can, in theory, spawn a tornado on the other side of the world.