The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the Super League play‑offs for the first time after finishing seventh this season. For almost two years—some fans would argue even longer—analysts, pundits and supporters have been dissecting exactly how a club that seemed invincible could slide into mediocrity.
The next twelve months will reveal whether the decision‑makers inside the club finally recognise that their trajectory has been heading downhill. The classic butterfly‑effect question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—offers a useful metaphor for sport. In complex systems, a tiny alteration can trigger massive consequences.
If the Saints' recent decline is the tornado, what was the initial wing‑flap that set the chain reaction in motion? To answer that, we must rewind to 2019, the year St Helens captured their first Super League title in five years. Mid‑season 2017 found the club languishing in the middle of the table, prompting the dismissal of head coach Keiron Cunningham and the appointment of Justin Holbrook.
After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017 (a Luke Gale drop‑goal) and a disappointing 2018 campaign despite Ben Barba’s brilliance, 2019 arrived as a redemption story. The Saints dominated, losing only three games and cruising to the top of the ladder.
Their 23‑6 Grand Final victory over Salford Red Devils cemented the belief that St Helens were back on top. That squad was a blend of home‑grown talent and Australian imports, all in their mid‑to‑late twenties and playing at the peak of their powers. Players such as Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley and Lachlan Coote formed the core, supported by a cadre of promising youngsters.
The club then faced a coaching change, but under Kristian Woolf the momentum continued. Woolf later admitted that the COVID‑19 shutdown may have saved his job; the team had just suffered defeats to Huddersfield and Castleford when the season was halted. When play resumed, Woolf used the break to consult his squad about expectations, forging a partnership between a demanding coach and a group hungry for success. The result was another era of dominance: Jack Welsby scored one of the most memorable Grand Final tries in 2020, the Saints added a Challenge Cup and a League Leaders’ Shield, and they even pulled off the seemingly impossible World Club Challenge win over the Penrith Panthers in 2023.
Paul Wellens, a former captain turned assistant, stepped up as head coach after a decade on the coaching staff, and Lewis Dodd’s golden‑point drop‑goal became an iconic moment in British rugby league history. With such a trophy cabinet, the natural question became: what now? Should the club begin a transition, rely on the same core group, or adopt a hybrid approach?
The answer appeared to be "Option B"—continue rewarding the senior stars with upgraded contracts while attempting to stay within the salary‑cap. By 2025, many of the key figures—Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata'utia—were entering their thirties.
Their success deserved higher wages, but each contract increase ate into the limited £2.1 million cap, leaving less room for marquee signings or even competitive salaries for emerging talent. Under Wellens, the Saints made only eleven new signings over three seasons to replace departing veterans such as Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Makinson, Dodd and Mata'utia. Those arrivals—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were largely acquired on a shoestring, some thanks to Salford’s financial collapse. Critics argue that the replacements have not matched the quality or experience of those they supplanted.
Former CEO Mike Rush once described the club’s recruitment philosophy as "Moneyball", borrowing a term from Michael Lewis’s book about the Oakland Athletics. The idea is to identify undervalued players who excel in specific statistical categories—tackles, metres gained, work‑rate—while staying within a constrained budget.
Rush admitted that the approach involves risk: "We’re always going to get stuff wrong because whether it’s an overseas player or not, you take risks and you gamble." He also highlighted the opacity of salary‑cap valuations, noting that a player’s perceived worth can differ dramatically from their actual cap hit. In practice, the Saints’ gamble did not pay off as intended. Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin labelled the recruitment “shocking” and “terrible”, accusing the club of making short‑term, convenient choices rather than securing like‑for‑like replacements.
Young players were thrust into Super League roles before they were ready, exposing a lack of depth caused by an ageing core and insufficient investment in the future. Meanwhile, other clubs have closed the financial gap. Wigan, Wakefield, York, Leigh and others now possess the resources to compete for top talent, meaning St Helens can no longer rely on being the sole spending powerhouse. As senior players aged, injuries mounted, and younger squad members were asked to shoulder heavier loads, performance inevitably slipped.
In 2026, Lomax and Percival combined for just 14 appearances, far below the standards they set a decade earlier. The departure of long‑standing figures such as Wellens, Roby and Rush—each of whom had been linked to the club’s fortunes since the 1990s—further destabilised the organisation.
Injuries to key enforcers like Matty Lees and Morgan Knowles compounded the problem, leaving the team without its traditional physical presence. Fans grew weary of the attritional style that yielded third, sixth and fifth‑place finishes under Wellens, barely enough to reach the play‑off semi‑finals. The board deemed those results unacceptable and hired Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract to reverse the trend. Rowley’s tenure lasted less than a season; he was dismissed before the high‑profile clash with Wigan in July, leaving many to wonder how the season might have unfolded had he remained.
The club’s latest move is to appoint Australian head coach Kevin Walters, hoping his reputation for fostering strong cultures and player advocacy will restore confidence. Saints legend James Graham even sent Walters a compilation of the club’s greatest victories to illustrate why the mantra "Never write off the Saints" endures.
Early indications suggest Walters is already courting high‑profile signings, signalling a possible return to spending to match on‑field expectations. So, what was the original "flap of a wing" that precipitated the 2026 tornado?
In hindsight, it appears the club chose to stop flapping altogether for four years—opting for stability over evolution, rewarding an ageing core, and neglecting strategic recruitment. In sport, stagnation is synonymous with decline.
The decision to remain static, rather than continuously adapt, set the stage for the inevitable downturn. As the regular Super League season draws to a close with Round 27 on 10 September, St Helens faces a pivotal crossroads: will they finally recognise the need to reinvent their wings, or will they watch the storm they created continue to erode their legacy?